AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva appeared live on the AccuWeather Network on Oct. 15 to provide an updated forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and to share insights on a newly developing tropical wave off the coast of Africa.

Meteorologists have revised their hurricane season forecast, now expecting around six hurricanes due to the lower number observed so far. The season has been unusual, with most activity in the Atlantic and none in the Caribbean to date, leading to exceptionally warm waters in the Gulf and Caribbean.

A new tropical wave, currently farther south than previous systems, is being monitored for potential development as it moves west. While it faces some hurdles, such as dry air and its southern position, forecasters note that conditions in the central Caribbean could become ideal for intensification if the system survives its initial challenges. The storm's future path and strength will depend on atmospheric patterns, particularly a dip in the jet stream off the U.S. East Coast.

Tracking a new tropical wave

Alex, before we get into what's upcoming here, let's talk about the forecast. You know, once you make a forecast, sometimes there's a few tweaks here and there, and we've made one to our hurricane season forecast here. Yeah, we did. And in regard to the hurricane numbers, last update we had six to nine hurricanes. We think that eight and nine is probably out of reach at this time, given the fact that we've only seen four so far. So what we did is we just kind of collapsed around the bottom end of our range and said around six. So I think we can still see one or two more hurricanes for sure the rest of the hurricane season, especially potentially one coming up next week. So that's the only the change we made. We didn't change any impacts to the United States. We still have a month and a half to go, and we want people to still remain vigilant as it's still possible to get U.S. impacts even all the way through November. I said this earlier. I think it's been an odd hurricane season thus far. We've had so much wind shear. And then take a look at this. Everything with the exception of Barry is in the Atlantic. Now listen, the Atlantic's a bigger basin compared to the Caribbean and the Gulf. We get that. But but still, it's a little odd. Not one system, not one in the Caribbean so far. Yeah, it's been a very odd season. The Bermuda High has been a little bit further to the east this year, a little bit weaker. So it's allowed those storms to take that hard right hand turn out over the ocean. Some have still come close enough to bring direct impacts to the United States, but luckily most have stayed offshore. And you can see them all kind of taking that hook out. But you know what this does is it essentially allowed the Gulf and the Caribbean water temperatures to get exceptionally, exceptionally warm. And so the concern is that as we go out through the rest of the hurricane season, if anything's able to get into those areas, they're going to be tapping into untapped energy. All right, we'll keep an eye on Lorenzo. We're going to track it. Not heading toward the United States, but it was last week you and I start looking at this and I said, this is going to be the one to watch because unlike a lot of the waves coming off Africa that have been pretty far north around 15, 20 degrees north, this one's a lot farther south. Is this the farthest wave that we've seen so far this year come off Africa? I want to see. Yes. Yeah, it might be. At least it's the further south, most organized wave. There could have been other waves that have come further south that, you know, really didn't have much organization to it. But you can see it's a pretty robust tropical wave. The only thing that's really holding it back, I think, from starting to develop is that it's so far south that the Coriolis force, which helps these systems essentially turn, is so low once you get to 10 degrees or south of that line, you can you can have development down there, but it's awfully hard. And so since this is so far south, I think it's going to struggle at least in the short term until it's able to gain latitude by the time next week comes around and it's going into the Caribbean. Then I think we can see some development with this as it's getting into the Caribbean. And we have a low risk on it now for next week in the Caribbean because it has some other hurdles. I don't think they're impossible hurdles, but, you know, there it is right there. There's some dry air in its pathway. I wouldn't say there's a lot, but you could see a little. Yeah, there's a little bit of dry air, but overall, compared to some of the other waves this season, it's in a pretty good moisture pocket. And you can see some of the shear on the left side of the screen there. That's kind of backing out of the way. Most of the shear is either well west of the storm or the wave or well north of the wave. So I think it's going to have a bit of a window here where as long as it can maintain itself coming through the eastern Atlantic, by the time it gets into the into the Caribbean, boy oh boy, look at these water temperatures here, these anomalies rather, how much warmer they are compared to average everywhere in this dark orange indicates water temperatures that are several degrees higher than what you would expect for this time of the year. And again, a lot of that has to go back to do or goes back to due to the fact that we haven't had any storms in this area yet to really mix up those waters. I said this before. This is the storm that could define the season. If it can get through the hurdles, if it survives, because you and I just looked at the conditions in the central Caribbean where this will be in some way, shape or form, middle part, latter half of next week, and conditions look ideal for development here. Yeah, they certainly do. The wind shear really drops off, especially in the central Caribbean. The water temperatures are there. There's upper level support for this. You know, I think the only question is, is it going to be able to make it or will the dry air or will the fact that it's so far south be able to essentially prevent that development? But we're a long way out. This wouldn't be until really next week by the time it gets into that area. So a long way out. But we are starting to raise raise some signals here that we could see some some potential development. And if anything develops in that area, it could intensify rather quickly. Now, you'll notice on this graphic, we decided to put that dip in the jet stream off the East Coast, which is non-tropical. And there's a reason for that, because that becomes the key to where this is going to go. Where's the location of it? What's the depth of it? Because this trough, if it is strong enough, would start to draw this northward again. We're talking about a lot of hypotheticals based on what is going what that storm is going to do, assuming it survives. But if it's in the central Caribbean and that dip in the jet stream is strong enough, it's going to pull it northward. Yeah, very well could. And especially if the storm is stronger, the stronger the storm is in the Caribbean, the more likely it has to get pulled north. If it stays a little bit weaker, it's more likely to go west. But this isn't until the end of next week. So plenty of time to watch it. We have a lot to watch over the next couple of weeks.

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