In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno discusses the formation of Tropical Depression 7, marking the end of a quiet period in the Atlantic basin.

A new tropical depression, designated as number seven, has formed in the Atlantic Basin, marking the end of a stretch of inactivity that began in late August. The depression is currently contending with dry air and significant wind shear, both of which are expected to limit its development over the next several days. Forecast models indicate that the system is unlikely to strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane in the immediate future, and it poses no threat to the United States at this time.

In addition to this depression, meteorologists are monitoring another tropical wave that is expected to enter the Caribbean. While this system currently shows little sign of development and faces a low risk of intensifying over the weekend, conditions could become more favorable if it enters an area of lower wind shear next week. However, no landfalling storms are expected in the United States in the coming week to ten days.

The weather tranquility is over

And the tranquility is over. Tropical depression number seven forming this morning, ending a stretch since August 29th of no activity in the Atlantic Basin. The last time we've seen something like that was 1992, but it's over. Let me show you tropical depression number seven. Here it is. You know what? Doesn't look as big as it did yesterday, but still a nice little clustering here of showers and thunderstorms. But there's some difficulties that this is gonna overcome. Remember yesterday at all week, we're talking about how the dry air was being pushed away from this system. I don't see that any longer. In fact, you could see pockets of dry air. In fact, let me zoom in. I mean, take a look at this. There's pockets of dry air. The center circulation is down in here. There's dry air awfully close to that. And there's no question that that is going to be limiting development over the next 24 hours. In fact, I don't see a whole lot going on with this system moving forward here. And there's also wind shear. Wind shear is gonna be a huge problem here. Now, where it is right now, you see the light purple, that's lower wind shear. However, in here, you'll notice some dark purple. That's where this is going. Now, all along, we've been talking about the fact that the wind shear would start to lessen moving forward. Here's what I wanna do now. And this is what I like about the feed. It's the science behind the forecast. I'm gonna show you some of the computer models that I look at. You're always gonna hear me talk about the European model because I think it's the best. They're all flawed, but I like this model the most. What it's showing is, you see this energy, the red? This is our tropical depression number seven. And you notice how big it is, elongated. That tells me that at least from the European model perspective, this is still not a tropical storm. Let's see if we can get there. But here's the problem. We talked about the dry air. What about the wind shear? Where do we look for a wind shear? One of the models I use is the 200 millibar, 40,000 feet. So the storm is in here and there's still some wind shear. You see that? Out of the West Southwest. Let's take you to tomorrow evening. So this is Thursday evening. You'll notice it tightens up a little bit right here. There it is. What does the wind shear look like? Much less. Let me show it to you right there. See, it's right in here. Still some, but it's lighter wind. You see the darker colors. You see these light colors in here. That's showing lighter winds. By Friday evening, what does it look like here? Here it is moving to the East Northeast, right in here. What does the wind shear look like in that area? Pretty light. Out of the South. But I'll tell you what, it's still not perfect. And that tells me this is going to take some time before this becomes a hurricane. Do not look for that, if at all, until next week. But again, the track of this system will be heading toward Bermuda on Tuesday. No threat for the United States. Now, I want to take you to our next tropical system that we're going to be watching here. This is a tropical wave right in here. Let me go back. I went a little forward here. So this is the tropical wave that we're tracking right now. Doesn't look all that impressive, and I'm not expecting to be impressive. In fact, this is what we're looking at here over the next couple of days. A low risk of development over the weekend. I think it is very unlikely that this is going to develop in the Caribbean over the next couple of days. Now, it's going to enter the Caribbean early next week. And that's when we have to watch it a little bit here. And let me show you why. Because I want to show you the wind shear. This is another product showing wind shear, but it's easy to see. Let's look at the wind shear in the Caribbean here as we go in the next week. Look at this. You don't see any colors here, do you? If this remains intact and can get into the Caribbean next week, that's where you have to watch for some development. But it could be gone and sheared out before it gets into the Caribbean. But if it gets into that area of low wind shear, look out, but don't look for any land falling storms in the United States for the next week to 10 days. And that's a huge statement. And that's the feed.

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