CNBC's Martin Soong and Chery Kang take a closer look at the preliminary annual revision on U.S. payrolls for the year prior to March 2025, showing a drop of 911,000 from the initial estimates.

New York

A preliminary report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has revealed that the US job market was weaker than previously reported, with payrolls revised downward by 911,000 jobs for the 12 months through March. This marks the largest revision to payroll data since 2002. The White House responded by calling for new leadership at the Bureau, citing the revision as evidence of the need for change. The revision has also sparked political debate, with some attributing economic weakness to previous administrations and others questioning the reliability of the agency's data. The final revision is expected in several months, and the update is likely to influence ongoing discussions about Federal Reserve policy and the broader economic outlook.

The 911K signal: Downward revision on U.S. payrolls concerning

A new preliminary report out from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics overnight showed the country's job market was much weaker than previously reported. Annual revisions to payrolls data for the 12 months through March showed 911,000 fewer jobs than initially estimated. It is also the largest revision on record going all the way back to 2002 and that brings us to our big number which is 911,000. The White House also weighing in saying the revisions were proof of the need for new leadership at the BLS which prepares the government's monthly jobs data. So Sherry I want to make a couple of points here and rather than getting you know sidelined and getting too geeky into the calculations and the comparisons etc. One this is a preliminary revision right so I don't think we should get too hung up on it. The final revision comes only in February so I guess we'll wait for that. Two I want to say that you know much as a lot of people would not want to try and politicize this it seems as though the White House is trying to politicize it because they're saying look there you go there's proof and there's evidence that this job market weakness it had nothing to do with President Trump. This actually started before President Trump and his tariffs. So yeah all this data is just getting just really confusing. Yeah so number one the politicizing bit. The White House press secretary basically saying that you know see this is really proving the fact that the Trump administration has inherited an economy that was in a much worse shape. So he has a lot of work to do and he needs the Fed's rate cuts to really do his job. So that is one part of that political debate. And then there is of course the debate over the quality of this agency's jobs report which was of course really prompted by President Trump and his allies as well. So that's really the political conversation. But I know that we are going to get the final final revision later in a few months from now. But this is going to be definitely a market debate going forward. Is the Fed behind the curve. Something happened in the labor market and the crack seems to be bigger than what some had thought. Remember the market pricing in was tariff could be bad. It could be inflationary but growth is OK. The jobs market stalling but it's not breaking down. That could actually change given this. Yeah. In terms of what it means for the Fed. Yeah. One in 10 chance 10 percent chance of a 50 base one cut pretty much a lock I think for 25 later this month. I think the conversation now extends to the cycle. How many. It's not too. I think markets is now going to start pricing in three cuts this cycle.

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