In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at the latest on the tropics.

Meteorologists are tracking a tropical wave moving off Africa, which is expected to consolidate showers and thunderstorms into a trackable system as it moves across the Atlantic. Forecast models suggest that this system will encounter low wind shear and warm waters, creating favorable conditions for development into at least a tropical storm as it approaches the Caribbean islands.

Both European and American weather models currently predict the system will likely move into the Atlantic rather than remain in the Caribbean, which could limit its potential intensity. However, if the system stays in the Caribbean, the combination of low wind shear and unusually warm sea surface temperatures could lead to the formation of a major hurricane. Additionally, meteorologists are watching for possible homegrown development in the northwest Caribbean, with patterns indicating the potential for another storm in the coming weeks.

Strong likelihood for two storms in the Atlantic

I think in the next two weeks, we're gonna be adding two more storms to our list. One will be in the Atlantic, and I'm still worried about homegrown development. The forecast feed, or as I call it, the feed brought to you by the AccuWeather Pro site where you too can be a pro. Straight out to the satellite here this morning, I wanna show you the system that we are watching here. There we go. Let me put this into motion. There it is. There's the tropical wave that's coming off Africa right now. It's gonna be going into this area where we have showers and thunderstorms, the numerous. What this is gonna do is, once this gets out in there, what it will end up doing is consolidating all of these showers and the thunderstorms in the one trackable feature. Now, the question then remains is, are we gonna get any development within that area? And I believe the answer is, resoundingly, yes. Let me show you the modeling here. What we're looking at is wind shear. I'm gonna look at the winds at around 40,000 feet to 200 millibar here. And what I'm gonna show you is, as this tropical wave moves across the Atlantic, it's gonna be moving in the low wind shear. So I start this out on Monday evening. That system's gonna be right around in here. And oh, by the way, we've always mentioned, as long as this stays south of 15 degrees north, right, it's gonna have a good chance to develop because once you get north of 15 degrees north, you get into these darker blues, yellows, and reds. That's where you have wind shear. Remember, wind shear weakens systems. Low wind shear allows them to strengthen. So look what's going on here on Monday. I'm gonna play this forward. You've got this, this upper level high that is across the Atlantic. Underneath this, you have low wind shear. That's this on Monday. So that's what it looks like on Monday. And the system's gonna be moving into this area. Look what goes on by Wednesday. Let's skip ahead toward the middle part of the week. Where does that high start to shift? Here near the islands, right? This is Wednesday evening. By now, this system is right around in here. And then as we head into, let's say, Friday, it'll be approaching the islands. And what do you see? An area of high pressure building across the island. So basically what's gonna happen is this upper high with low wind shear is gonna be following the storm as it moves from east to west. And that's why I feel very strong likelihood that this is gonna be developing as we head in the next week. Not so much early in the week, but by the time this gets to the islands, and when is that gonna be, late in the week, Thursday into Friday, I think we're gonna have Jerry. I think it's at least a tropical storm. The question is, where does it go? There's gonna be a fork in the road as we head into next week. The fork is right in here. Does it go into the Atlantic or does it stay in the Caribbean? If it stays in the Caribbean, we have a huge problem because there's low wind shear here also. And there's also gonna be warm water. In fact, I wanna show you this really quick early next week. Let's look at the 200 millibar, like as we get into Tuesday. You see what's going on here? You see these light colors? That's low wind shear. If this system stays into the Caribbean, we're gonna not only have a hurricane, we're gonna have a major hurricane. The question is, will it? I wanna show you the computer modeling for this. I wanna show you like I normally do the European and the American model. So here we go as we head into Thursday. So here's the system. You can see it right here. You see the yellows, oranges, and reds? That's our tropical storm, I think, at this point. This is the European model. This is the American. European, American, pretty much in the same area. Let's head toward Friday evening. Now here's the fork in the road. This is the European model. The American model has it just getting into the northeastern Caribbean. There's the European model right near the Virgin Islands. So they're pretty much in the same area. Where do they go from there? Both modeling takes it where? In the Atlantic. There's the American, that's on Saturday. There's the European, very similar. And then both, there's the American steering it out to sea. There's the European steering it out to sea. I think that's probably right, but again, I'm worried. If this system finds its way into the Caribbean, we have some problems. Not only because of the wind shear, but take a look at this. These are the water temperatures, and these are the anomalies. Remember, water temperatures here are usually around 83, 84. These are showing you that water temperature anomalies, or temperatures compared to the historical average, are running about three to four degrees above historical average. So that's gonna put temperatures well in the 80s. 85, 86, 89 degrees. If anything finds its way into the Caribbean with low wind shear, and there will be mid to late next week, we could be looking at a huge problem. Now, I've been watching, I've been telling you about this pattern for the last month. Mid-October, about the 15th through the 20th, let's watch this area. Pattern recognition, I've been doing this for 35 years. Anytime you see an area of high pressure building across the mid-Atlantic states, what ends up happening is this. You end up, you end up getting with a boundary that stalls in here, right? And when boundaries stall, what do they produce? Showers and thunderstorms. And that's the beginning of the tropical process here. And even when you look at some of the modeling, I wanna show you this coming up next. Even when you look at some of the modeling, as we get into this timeframe, mid to, let's say, October, I wanna show you this. Look what goes on here on the 16th. This is the European model and American model. They're all showing all this energy where? Where? Northwest Caribbean here with the frontal boundary I just draw. This is the area to watch as we move forward. Two storms, I think, coming up in the next two weeks. And that's the message on the feed.

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