In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno talks about the snow and ice threat in the mid-Atlantic later this week.

Mid-Atlantic

A winter storm is forecast to affect the mid-Atlantic region, with snow and ice expected to develop on Friday. The extent and intensity of the precipitation will depend on the strength of an upper-level disturbance moving eastward, with forecast models showing some disagreement.

The European model suggests a stronger system, potentially bringing accumulating snow from Philadelphia to Richmond, while the American model keeps the heaviest precipitation farther south. Areas south of New York City, including southern Virginia and Raleigh, may see a mix of snow, sleet, and rain. Forecasters are monitoring the situation closely and advise residents to stay updated on the latest developments.

Snow and ice coming later this week to mid-Atlantic

And I'm on the hunt for snow. When do we have to worry about snow, and who will have the threat for snow and ice? That's the focus of the feed here today. All right, I want to give you some talking points right off the bat here. All right, in the Midwest, rest of this week, for the rest of this week it's cold, but I don't think we're looking at any organized snow. So there will be some snow and flurries as we head into the next couple of days, but nothing that's organized. Here's your next threat, and this is coming for the mid-Atlantic as we head into Friday. The question is, is how far can the snow and ice get? I'll be answering that as we head into the next couple of minutes here. Then we do have a clipper coming across the lakes in the Northeast, there'll be a little bit of snow with that as we head into early next week. And then I think the next opportunity for more substantial snow will be as we head into next week. All right, let's talk about the mid-Atlantic system first here. This is coming on Friday, and here are the ingredients that I want to show you. You have this frontal boundary, you can see it now. Comes into here, and then it stalls out. So you've got this boundary that is stalled here across Texas. Notice what else is going on. Back here across the Intermountain West, I'll mark it with an X and we'll circle it. There it is. This is why it's been snowing in Denver. So what's going to happen is, remember, when you have boundaries, you have colder air to the North, warmer air to the South, and that temperature difference is where storms like to form. But you need something to trigger the storm. That's going to be this. This is going to come Southeast, and that's going to form a storm along the boundary, and then this storm comes to the North. The real question is this. How much precipitation can you get back into the colder air? So that's been the question all week. Now, this is, we kind of went through yesterday, we believe that this is going to be the threat for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. We thought that it could be a threat on Saturday. In the Sunday, it's going to be this first system rounding the bend across the Intermountain West. Let me show you what it looks like on the modeling here this morning. There are some minor differences, but minor differences make huge, has huge implications. So this is the piece of energy that we're watching. I'm going to show it to you right here. So it's here this morning. By later today, it's across the Four Corners area. Now, all of the modeling, and that's what I'm showing you here. You're looking at the same models that I look at every day. All of the modeling take this system to the East-Northeast, but they weaken it across the Ohio Valley and eventually into the Mid-Atlantic, and that's why the precipitation in that part of the country where it's cold enough for snow has been relatively weak. Now, let me show it to you. This is the European. Watch this. Takes it across the area, and then by the time we get into Friday morning, there it is. It's right in here. A little farther north, and boy, I tell you what, you still see some red with it. The darker the colors, the more energy that you have. I want to show you the differences, and this is what's going to make the difference in whether, let's say, Philadelphia gets snow, Washington, D.C. gets snow, or if there's just a little bit of snow and ice across Southern Virginia and North Carolina. It all depends on the strength of this system as it moves northeast on Friday. So this is the European model. Let me show you the American model. So I want you to focus in on here. This is the European model. This is 1 o'clock, 7 o'clock Friday, GFS. Look at the difference. European, GFS. European, GFS. European, a little stronger, just a little stronger with it. So because it's stronger, you're getting more upward motion on the northern side of the storm so you get more precipitation. You see that? Very, very slight, but significant. European GFS. European GFS. See the difference? See how the GFS has like stretched it out like a rubber band, but the European a little farther north and you see a little more consolidated and a little stronger, right? And then when you look at the surface map, you can see the difference. This is the European. Look at the surface. This blue line would be roughly, we call it the 540 line, that's roughly the snow-ice length, roughly, at least the snow line. But there would be some ice with this in northern North Carolina. That's the European. Focus on the blue. Look how much the blue goes. Right in the word Philadelphia, right? European, GFS. European, GFS. Look at the difference. European, GFS. See how much farther south the GFS is? Notice that? Let's go to seven o'clock. European, snow tries to get up in the New York City. The GFS, nope. Why? Because it's a weaker system. So this is what we're gonna be focusing on. How strong is this piece of energy coming in out of the southwest? I think it's strong enough that the snow's gonna try to get to Philadelphia. Not saying it's five, six inches, could be a coding to an inch. But I think you've gotta worry about accumulating snow in this area. Let me draw it for you, right in here. I think this is the area to watch for accumulating snow. We're gonna keep it south of New York City for now. But it's right in here. We'll take it right toward Richmond. Right in here. I think you're gonna get maybe a coding to an inch of snow, maybe one to three inches. I think that's in the discussion. Now, once you get toward southern parts of Virginia, like Richmond, toward Raleigh, I think it's snow and sleet that goes over to the rain. There could be a small accumulation. This is all on Friday. So let's keep an eye on this. This is gonna be interesting to watch. Focus on, if you're looking at the models like I do, focus in on this piece of energy. This is the key. How strong is this energy? Is it like the European has, that it looks like this? For the American, it's flatter and weaker. I tend to trust the European. So let's keep an eye on that. Really quickly, I wanna show you one other thing to watch for late next week. Late next week, I want you to keep an eye on this. Because look at what happens on Thursday. Look at this, another big dip in the jet stream coming south here. Now, the American model doesn't have this. This is Thursday into Friday. This opens up the door for more snow from Kentucky, Mid-Atlantic, and even into the Northeast. That would be late in the week. We're gonna keep an eye on that on the feed as we go through the rest of this week. But for now, let's focus in on the Mid-Atlantic, Friday into Friday night. Can the snow get to New York City? Maybe. But I think from Philadelphia to D.C., you gotta keep an eye on it. That's the feed. Thanks for watching. We'll see you next week.

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