AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter explains the increasing concern around the growing hurricane risk in the Gulf of America in mid- to late September.

Meteorologists are observing heightened activity in the Atlantic as the region enters the peak of hurricane season. Ocean temperatures across the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico are reported to be three to six degrees Fahrenheit above the historical average, creating favorable conditions for hurricane development. 

A specific tropical wave located around 35 degrees West is being monitored for potential development, although dry air may slow its progress in the short term. Experts caution that residents in the Lesser Antilles should remain alert, as the system could organize into a hurricane as it approaches the region.

September is the peak of Atlantic hurricane season

Take you to the Turks and Caicos because we've got more to talk about in the tropics now Bernie. This looks absolutely Beautiful here. Let's soak it in All right with that Not as beautiful as the Turks and Caicos But dashingly handsome. Anyway, I want to bring in our chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter, you know, John all kidding aside When you look at the Atlantic Basin, yes, it's been relatively quiet given the time of year But there's a lot of warning signals right now with those ocean water temperatures And I also think it's it's stunning to see how Aaron has Impacted the tropical Atlantic. These are the ocean water temperature anomalies exactly You can see where Aaron recurved here. Those blue areas are areas of cooler Water and in fact, that's where did that come from? That came from below the surface all the winds associated with the storm stirred up the water Some of that cooler air comes up to the ocean surface cooler water up to the ocean surface And so you can see the path of air in there resulting in that upwelling that will mix out and eventually Warm back up in those areas but there's a lot of orange and yellow from the main development region of the tropical Atlantic all the way back through the Caribbean and the Gulf Bernie and that means that Water temperatures are anywhere from three to in some cases six degrees Fahrenheit above the long-term Historic average that's warm water. That could be rocket fuel for developing hurricane Yeah This is it's not a hyper hyperbole But this graphic is is a little frightening to me because it looks at the water temperatures in the Gulf and compares that the historical average that red line is This year and it looks as though it's right on par with what we had last year That's the orange and that ice attack that that black line. That's the historical average very warm water Yeah, notice that's the historical average here all and the red line is is 2025 so we're way up at the top end. We've been trailing 2024 for a bit but now it's actually in the last day or two ticked ahead of 2024 Ocean temperatures averaged across the entire Gulf probably because the Gulf has been untouched There hasn't been any tropical storms or hurricanes in there this year as compared to last year. All right, it's been quiet But I'll tell you what, we're watching this tropical wave. It's it's it's the one on the far, right? It's around 35 degrees West. We've been highly highlighting that all week. Listen to it one One way out of this system not developing. It's a tropical wave You know, the dry air is not moving away John it looks like it's gonna try to come into it and that should slow development for a time It should see the dry air is located in these oranges and yellows and Bernie what you and I were just talking about a minute Ago is look how the oranges and yellows are actually moving toward the storm So that's going to try to erode the northern edge of it It's going to have to deal with that dry air as it moves to the west that tells us that it's probably a Slower development on this one But this is the feature to watch here and then it gets as we get into that area Low wind shear and how many times you know, John and I looked high up in the atmosphere There's a big high pressure in the upper part of the atmosphere that it's going under as we head toward this weekend That spells trouble again. We've always had this John a high risk, but here at Accuweather We always go a step ahead. We need to let people know in the islands This is one they have to keep an eye on John Let's go over the timeline. The storm will be organizing this weekend into a tropical storm. We expect to be an likely a hurricane East of the islands early next week in the middle of the week next week There can be in the aisle impacts the islands and then after that Track further to west could mean more problems the u.s. Or could recurve out to sea All right, if you live in the Lesser Antilles Pay attention This could be a hurricane and likely will be a hurricane as it approaches the middle part of the week chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter

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