AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on Aug. 28 to discuss the latest on the hurricane season.

The Atlantic hurricane season is currently on track with the historical average, having produced six named storms so far. Meteorologists note that the next named storm, Gabrielle, could form soon, keeping the season's pace consistent with long-term trends. Rapid intensification remains a concern, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, where warm waters could quickly strengthen any developing storms. 

A temporary lull in activity is being observed, attributed to cooler waters near Africa and increased dry air and wind shear across the Atlantic. Experts suggest this lull is unusual, marking the second consecutive year without a hurricane on the map at the start of September, a rare occurrence not seen in over 30 years. However, conditions may become more favorable for storm development as the season progresses.

Peak hurricane season arrives in the Atlantic

All right, 83 in Key West, Florida right now as someone just popped up behind the buoy as we take you out there into Florida. Yeah. And with that, I do want to bring in our hurricane expert. You know who he is. Part of the young guns, as I call them, meteorologist Alex De Silva. We'll see if that if that name continues here at Alex really quickly. A lot to go over here. Let's just review where we are right now is we're in a little bit of a lull. Yeah, we're on pace right now overall for the number of name storms. We've seen six name storms so far this hurricane season. The next one would be Gabrielle. That one could potentially be coming up potentially next week. We'll have to keep a close eye out for it. But where we are in terms of the season statistics here, we're right around where we're supposed to be the seventh name storm. So that would be the next storm would typically occur around September 3rd, the second hurricane around August 26th or so. So right on pace of where we're supposed to be this this time of year. Alex, I want to go back a little bit. We issued the forecast, the hurricane forecast back in March, and we kind of came up with some four key elements that when we look back at the hurricane season, what we were expecting to happen. Yeah, rapid intensification was something we were very concerned about. We saw that with Aaron becoming a category five. Luckily, it was a far enough away from the islands where we didn't see those really big hurricane impacts. But it still brought a really close shave to the Carolinas. Same thing with Chantal. That one actually made landfall and we were concerned with the Carolinas. But what I'm really concerned about is the Gulf of the Gulf of America. The water temperatures are so, so warm in that area that if a storm gets in there, it's untapped waters. Basically, we could see that rapid intensification. And then we're going to be concerned about impacts. Well, inland as well. But now that you mention it, we're in this lull in the middle of the season that we talked about. And I think I know why. And we'll talk about that in just a moment. But look at this sea surface map here. This is, I find very interesting. We had Hurricane Aaron move through the East Coast areas just off the East Coast and it created a wake behind it. So it essentially just mixed up some of those waters, the big waves up to 40, 50 foot waves mixed up some of those waters and brought cooler water to the surface. Now, if this was later in the season, that would pretty much shut down the hurricane season. But since it's early enough, those waters will rebound really quickly. Now, you're talking about Atlantic Nina as one of the reasons you were worried that during the heart of the hurricane season, there could be a little bit of a lull. Yeah. And the research is really being done on this in the past few years. This teleconnection, as we call it, was discovered a while ago. But a lot of research has been done recently. And it shows that when this area near Africa, just off the coast of Africa, west coast of Africa, right along the equator, if those water temperatures are cooler, that that can support maybe a little bit of a quieter Atlantic season. But we've been seeing these waters warming up. So the typical pattern would support suppressed tropical activity. But if we see those waters warming up, that would be reason for concern as we head through the rest of the hurricane season. We have Fernand moving away. There are tropical waves that we are tracking for you here this morning, Alex. Yeah, but they're in an area where there's a lot of dusty, dry air. I don't see anything developing here in the short term. You know, and this does seem like a lot of dry air for this time of the year. Yeah, it typically is. We usually see the dry air starting to decrease. But I think some of this is actually tied to that Atlantic Nenia that we were talking about, where we were concerned about the lull in the middle of the tropical season. So lots of dry air, lots of dust right now. And lots of wind shear, just pockets of dark purple, Alex, from the Atlantic all the way into the Caribbean and the Gulf. Yeah, it does not look like we're going to be seeing anything in the short term. But we are tracking two areas, one off the southeast coast right now. Maybe it goes during the holiday weekend. I think the chance is very low. And then next week, another wave comes off of Africa. But the thing is, is that this wave could pave the way for a more active Atlantic season once we get to the end of the first week of September. I think things are going to ramp up really quickly. And this first wave could really prime the pump and get the atmosphere a little more moist. And Alex, really, one thing, one last graphic. I mean, it appears right now that this is going to be the second consecutive year that we do not have a hurricane on the map on Labor Day. And that is a bit of an anomaly. It certainly is. Labor Day usually occurs right at the beginning of September. Of course, the date can move a little bit. But the last time we saw two consecutive seasons, 91-92, so it's been more than 30 years. So it is highly unusual to have multiple years in a row where we have this midsummer lull. AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. Alex, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.

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Kyiv

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Minneapolis

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Council of the City of Sydney

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Breakdown