Saurabh Mukherjea, Founder & CIO of Marcellus Investment Managers says the downward pressure on Indian rupee persists unless the U.S. and India can reach a free trade agreement, which he doesn't think is likely to happen due to U.S. domestic politics.

Delhi

A chief investment officer (CIO) discussed the outlook for the Indian rupee and the India-US free trade agreement (FTA), noting that ongoing IPOs and repatriation of funds are putting downward pressure on the rupee. The CIO highlighted that both current and capital account deficits are contributing to the rupee's weakness, and suggested that an FTA with the US is necessary to reverse this trend.

However, the CIO stated that there is no clear incentive for the US president to sign the FTA before the midterm elections, as key American interests are already exempt from the deal while Indian export sectors face high tariffs. The current arrangement is described as politically convenient for the US, making it unlikely that the FTA will be signed ahead of the elections.

No incentive for Trump to sign India FTA before mid-tem elections: CIO

Talk to us about two things which are perhaps correlated the rupee in 2026. Where do you see it go. And at the same time how that might impact the market given there is uncertainty around the India US trade deal tariff situation. So I would link this some of this to the first point you're raising. Right. As as the IPO window stays open as private equity sells out and sends the money back to more indeed as Korean companies or British companies sell their IPO their companies and repatriate their money to their home markets. That's consistently going to put downward pressure on the rupee. Right. India has historically had a current account deficit and a capital account surplus. Right. Uniquely in Indian history now we find ourselves at a place where the current account deficit remains. And in addition we now have a capital account deficit because every day IPOs happen and money gets sent out of the country. I think the combined impact of that pushes the rupee downwards on a steady basis for that to stop. I think we need that FTA with America without the FTA in America. There's no reason for the market to change its point of view that the rupees are one way trade at this stage. Now when will the U.S. India FTA come. I think anybody watching this their guess is as good as mine. I'm hoping it'll come sooner rather than later. But I can also see Washington has no pressure on it to sign this deal quicker. In fact from their domestic political perspective from an American domestic political perspective the longer they drag this out the better it plays to the audience that the U.S. presidents catered the U.S. president caters to. So are you suggesting then that we could see that there'll be no trade deal by midterm elections also. And if so then where do you see the rupee in November or December or next year. I mean this year. So I stress again I would love to see the trade the FTA happening sooner rather than later. But just to take up take your cue it's not evident to me why the U.S. president will sign this before the midterm elections. Right. What incentive does he have. Does he have to sign this. Everything that matters to America from an Indian perspective America wants Indian IT services cheap. So that's exempt from the FTA. They want Indian medicines cheap. That's exempt from the FTA. And they perhaps want the iPhones cheap as well. That's also exempt from the FTA. So the stuff that they care about that made it exempt from the FTA. The stuff that we care about job job creation and textiles and gems and jewelry in footwear and sports goods that's been slammed with a 50 percent tariff. So this feels to me to be a very politically convenient construct for the U.S. president and therefore not evident to me why he will sign the FTA before the midterms.

AI_GENERATE_PLACEHOLDER--------------------------------

Paris

Ukraine Invasion

U.S. backs security guarantees for Ukraine at summit of Kyiv's allies

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has expressed deep concern over recent U.S. military action in Venezuela, calling for the immediate release of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.

Soweto

Ramaphosa urges UN action after U.S. capture of Maduro

At least 25 people have been killed in Iran during the first nine days of protests that started in the bazaar of Tehran over the plunging value of the currency and soaring inflation, according to rights groups. This video contains graphic images.

Tehran

Rights groups say at least 25 dead in Iran protests

The administration of President Donald Trump is planning to meet with executives from U.S. oil companies later this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan oil production after U.S. forces ousted its leader Nicolas Maduro, according to a source familiar with the matter.

Washington

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Bogotá

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Nicolas Maduro appeared in a US courtroom on January 5, 2026. He pleaded "Not Guilty" to drug trafficking and other charges, insisting he is still Venezuela's president. Maduro's kidnapping is being justified by the Trump administration as a "surgical law enforcement operation", but what proof is the case resting on?

New York

Maduro pleads 'not guilty' in U.S. drug trafficking case

Local authorities in Crans-Montana admitted failing to conduct fire and safety inspections at Le Constellation bar, where a fire killed 40 and injured 116 during New Year celebrations.

Crans-Montana

Swiss Alps bar not inspected for five years prior to deadly fire

Twelve Israeli military vehicles have entered the Quneitra countryside in southern Syria. Several villages there have been the target of repeated Israeli raids in recent months. Tuesday's incursions come as discussions between an Israeli and Syrian delegation are expected to continue in Paris - mediated and coordinated by the U.S.

Beit Jinn

Israeli army vehicles enter southern Syria ahead of Paris talks

Following the largest anti-corruption investigation of his presidency, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has launched a significant shake-up of the government and his office, with a series of dismissals and appointments in top political and security roles.

Kyiv

Ukraine's security service chief resigns amid Zelenskyy's reshuffle

The capture of Nicolás Maduro is prompting strong reaction from Venezuelans in the United States, and those who fled across the border into Colombia. Lilia Luciano has more on the two women vying to lead the country. Then, Cristian Benavides reports on opposing viewpoints on U.S. intervention.

Caracas

Venezuela Strikes

Two women vying to run Venezuela amid opposing viewpoints

Police and the Secret Service are investigating a break-in at Vice President JD Vance's Ohio home. CBS News' Shanelle Kaul has more.

Cincinnati

Vice President JD Vance's Ohio home broken into

Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife pleaded not guilty Monday to federal drug trafficking and weapons charges, days after they were captured by U.S. military forces in a stunning overnight operation and brought to New York City for prosecution.

Manhattan

Maduro, wife plead not guilty to charges in New York

A Paris court on Monday (January 5) found 10 people guilty of the cyber-harassment of France's first lady, Brigitte Macron, for spreading false claims that she is a transgender woman who was born male.

Ten convicted for cyber-bullying France's Brigitte Macron

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Trump says U.S. "in charge" of Venezuela

A Paris ​court on Monday found ten people guilty ⁠of the cyber-harassment of France's first lady, Brigitte Macron, for spreading false claims she is a transgender ​woman who was born a man. The court convicted all defendants to sentences ranging from a cyberbullying awareness training to 8-month suspended prison sentences.

Ten people found guilty of cyberbullying Brigitte Macron

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is set to appear in a U.S. court on Monday (January 5) on drug charges after his controversial capture by American forces. President Donald Trump says he could order another strike if Venezuela’s interim government doesn’t cooperate.

Trump warns of second strike as Maduro faces U.S. drug charges

Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is being housed at Metropolitan Detention Center, Brooklyn, after he was captured by U.S. forces and flown to New York to face federal drug trafficking and weapons charges.

Maduro held in same jail as Sean "Diddy" Combs, Luigi Mangione

Police have identified all 40 victims who died in a New Year's Eve bar fire in Crans-Montana, Switzerland, including multiple teenagers. Two managers of Le Constellation bar have been placed under investigation for criminal negligence, according to prosecutors.

Police identify all 40 victims of Swiss bar fire

Seized overnight from their home on a military base on Saturday, Venezuela's toppled leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife are now being held in a New York detention centre. The apprehension is the U.S.'s most controversial in Latin America since the invasion of Panama 36 years ago.

U.S justifies Venezuela operation to capture Nicolás Maduro

As Venezuela grapples with the capture of Nicolás Maduro, the country’s top court has named Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. The 56-year-old has served as Venezuela’s vice-president since 2018.

Venezuela’s top court names new president after Maduro’s ouster

Sunday's launches came hours before South Korean President Lee Jae Myung departed for China for a summit with President Xi Jinping, for talks expected to cover North Korea's nuclear program.

Pyongyang

North Korea carries out new ballistic missiles test

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Palmyra

British, French warplanes strike suspected IS facility in Syria

At least 30 people have been killed and several others abducted after gunmen attacked a market in Nigeria’s Niger State, according to police. The attackers stormed Kasuwan Daji market in Demo village on Saturday afternoon, setting stalls on fire and looting food.

Niger

At least 30 killed in market attack in Nigeria’s Niger State

Pope Leo has expressed deep concern over the recent U.S. raid in Venezuela, urging that the well-being of the Venezuelan people must take precedence over all other considerations.

Rome

Pope voices concern over U.S. raid in Venezuela, calls for peace

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was in a New York jail Saturday, hours after American special forces seized and flew him out of his country — which President Donald Trump said would come under effective U.S. control.

Venezuela's Maduro arrives in New York after being abducted by U.S.

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Trump says U.S will ‘run’ Venezuela after Maduro seized

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U.S. treating Nicolás Maduro like a drug kingpin, federal authorities say

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is in New York after he was captured by U.S forces during a daring raid. President Trump said the U.S. will be running the Latin American country, for now.

First images emerge of Nicolás Maduro after capture by U.S.

No U.S. service members were killed in the military operation in Venezuela, the Trump administration said. CBS News national security correspondent Charlie D'Agata has more details.

No U.S. service members killed in Venezuela operation, Trump administration says

The United Nations, along with a host of countries including France, China and Russia have criticized U.S strikes on Venezuela and capture of Nicolás Maduro as a violation of international law.

Breakdown