The tropical wave southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Gabrielle later this week or this weekend. The latest computer models bring this potential system close to the Lesser Antilles by the end of next week.

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a tropical wave in the Atlantic that has an 80% probability of developing into a tropical cyclone. Despite this high probability, the system has not yet been classified as an 'invest,' and forecast models differ on its potential development and track.

Some models suggest the system could strengthen and move toward the islands, while others show limited development. There remains significant uncertainty about whether the system will impact the United States, with several factors still to be determined as the situation evolves.

NHC tracking tropical wave; likely Gabrielle in the making?

This is still, you know, 10 to 12 days away if, if it were to impact the United States, and that's a big if right now, 30 and 70. It's not an invest yet. I've never seen an 80% probability and not have an invest, even though I'm sure that's happened, but there's just so many things that could happen in through here. This is the said system, all right, and then there's another one that's coming off farther to the north. I mean this thing doesn't have a lot going for it early on, and frankly, the, some of the models don't really develop it all that much, okay. Southern track or northern track? This is essentially the European and the Google DeepMind, and that's the GFS model. That's, that's what they're doing with it, even though the GFS isn't as robust as it was yesterday. So here's the European bringing this across and then starting to slide it off toward the north. Remember, this is next Wednesday before it even touches the islands, okay. GFS, is this the new GFS, Joe, right here? So, yes, okay, so it's a little bit closer than it was yesterday, but now it's the weaker model, which is really interesting, okay. What we'll have to watch out for down the road, okay, what we can see here is we have a trough of low pressure, but there's a ridge to the north here, and what you wind up with is this kind of figure eight pattern. You know, when this gets closer, does the trough miss it and then start to steer it toward the United States? I still think there's a lot of unanswered questions here.

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