AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva discusses increasing concern about potential hurricane threats in the Gulf of America in mid- to late September.

Meteorologists are observing a rise in hurricane risk as the Atlantic hurricane season approaches its statistical peak. After a brief lull, experts anticipate increased activity in the coming weeks, similar to patterns seen in previous years. The Gulf of Mexico is of particular concern, with water temperatures several degrees above average and near-record ocean heat content, conditions that can fuel rapid storm intensification if a system forms.

A new tropical wave in the Atlantic is being closely monitored due to its high chance of development, though it currently faces some atmospheric challenges such as dry air and wind shear. If the system overcomes these obstacles, it could intensify as it nears the Caribbean islands, potentially bringing rain and wind impacts. Residents in the region are advised to stay informed as the situation develops.

Mid-September brings growing hurricane risk

I want to bring in our lead hurricane expert, Alex Silva. And you know, Alex, there's been a little bit of a pause in the last week or so, which is a little bit of an anomaly, although it happened last year. Because when you look at history, this is always a busy time in the Atlantic Basin. Yeah, September 10th, we're coming up on it. That's the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. So we are approaching that right now. But ever since back in March when we released our forecast for this upcoming season, we thought that there could be a bit of a lull in the middle of the Atlantic hurricane season. But we really expected that after about that September 10th time frame, things would really ramp up across the basin. That's what happened last year. And we're expecting a lot of the same as we go forward here over the next couple of weeks. Well, it was, what, about 10 days ago, maybe two weeks, we were dealing with Aaron, a large hurricane. And the footprint of Aaron is still visible in the southwestern Atlantic, Alex. Yeah, you can see that blue there off the east coast. That's from Aaron, actually. That's from the storm mixing up some of those waters, those big 40 to 50 foot waves that were out over the ocean there, mixed up some of that cooler water. But it has been rebounding. And I think over the next couple of days, maybe up to a week, those waters are going to be very close to where they were prior to Aaron. Now, these are the water temperature anomalies. Let's go into the Gulf of Mexico. And this, you know what, we talked about this. This is a ticking time bomb in the Gulf right now, Alex. Yeah, indeed it is. The water temperatures are several degrees above historical averages for this time of the year. And in fact, the ocean heat content, which is the depth of that warm water, is near record levels. It's only behind last year's levels. So when we remember what happened last year, we had Helene, we had Milton really explode in the Gulf. So that's my concern as we're going over the next couple of weeks and months here as we go to the second half of the hurricane season, is that if we get anything to form in the Gulf, more than likely, it's really going to intensify really quickly. And so that's why it's very important to keep tabs with the AccuWeather forecast. Yeah, that blue line showing the historical average. And you can see that red line. That's where we are this year. All right, we have some problems in the Atlantic. About 35 degrees west is that we're tracking that tropical wave. Yeah, that's the one that's on the right side of your screen here. That's the next tropical wave that we're going to be looking at. It has a high chance of developing here over the next day or so. But it's got some dry air in its way. You can see that really orange and yellow color in front of that tropical wave. So it's going to have to navigate some of that dry air and even a little bit of wind shear that it's going to have to deal with. But if it's able to make it closer to the islands, it's able to get into an area of lower wind shear and lower dry air. And that's where we could really see this try to intensify approaching the islands early to middle portions of next week. We've had a high risk on this for the last few days. But you know what? A lot of other sources will just stop with that, that there's a high risk. But we're always trying to give as much advance notice as we can. And we want to let people know that live in the islands that this is a system you're going to have to keep an eye on. Yeah, so we'll kind of track it out here. So through the weekend, we're expecting it to organize maybe into a depression or tropical storm, then maybe even into a hurricane early next week. And then when it approaches the islands, middle portions of next week, that's the time frame we're going to have to watch. It could bring some rain and wind impacts to the island. So we're going to have to keep an eye on this very closely. And then down the road, maybe some impacts for the United States, but we have plenty of time to watch that. All right, Accuweather lead hurricane expert Alex DeSilva. Alex, thanks for joining us here.

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