Name: Melek: Gold moving as classic safe haven amid rising geopolitical risk
Uploaded: 2026-01-05T14:56:32.935Z
Duration: 5 min 18 s
Description: Bart Melek, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, says geopolitical risk and expectations of easier Fed policy are lifting gold, while silver and platinum gain from tight supply, structural deficits, and growing industrial demand.

Bart Melek, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, says geopolitical risk and expectations of easier Fed policy are lifting gold, while silver and platinum gain from tight supply, structural deficits, and growing industrial demand.

Gold has experienced a notable increase as investors seek safe haven assets in response to rising geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the U.S. and Venezuela. The move is also influenced by expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve and the possibility of lower interest rates, which typically support gold prices.

Other precious metals such as silver and platinum are also seeing gains, driven by both safe haven demand and strong supply-demand fundamentals. Despite recent strength in the U.S. dollar, both the dollar and precious metals are being used as safe havens, with consensus pointing to a gradual decline in the dollar over time.

Melek: Gold moving as classic safe haven amid rising geopolitical risk

Look at the move on gold and some of these other areas. Is this simply safe haven asset. People want to go here because they're concerned about geopolitics. I think you know you have to come to that conclusion because nothing else really happened over the weekend. And it does make sense if the U.S. is going to be a lot more interventionist within the region. You could certainly envision some folks that might be feeling under duress might want to locate money in a safe haven other than the U.S. dollar for example or U.S. equities gold. You can keep physical and you don't really have to count on it clearing or anything like that. It's got intrinsic value. So traditionally it has always been a good safe haven in times of crisis. So is this a strong tailwind for gold and other precious metals going into the new year. The fact that the president says the U.S. is going to run the country for now and we continue to have guests here on this show this morning saying there's going to be a lot of tension and potential conflict between this administration and Venezuela and the U.S. Does that just continue to push gold higher. I think it certainly helps gold move higher here. And let's not forget there's also the monetary policy aspect of gold here where we're very likely going to see a much more dovish Fed come May with a more dovish chairman. Most likely that is more akin to what the White House wants to see on the interest rate front and that is lower rates. And if we do see problems in Venezuela this doesn't go well. We could see there 800 or so thousand barrels a day of a flow interrupted. We're already seeing some fields shattering capacity because of the previous U.S. action on tankers. And we could see a bit of a short covering here in the crude market which could signal some higher prices and positive for gold. So Bart's case about this oil gold dynamic for us because right now we're looking at oil prices moving a bit lower. A lot of the oil majors moving higher. In fact we were showing the leaders on the S&P just a second ago. Baker Hughes was one of the was the top performing stock in fact. And at the same time we're seeing metals and miners move higher. What exactly is this dynamic. Is it just simply worries about geopolitics or are some of these precious metals a hedge against something else. I mean what's going on here. The fact that we're seeing the oil produces higher oil lower but the precious metals move considerably higher. Well the geopolitical risk precious metals are higher particularly gold. If you're talking about an eventual freeing up of the oil sector in Venezuela which is the largest you know sector with the largest country with the biggest proven reserves potentially that could mean a lot of development down the road. You know nothing. No no way in the next six months or a year. But over the very long run and to the extent that markets discount the long run it kind of makes sense that companies that might have a part in developing those huge resources are doing better. When we're looking at the precious metal market due to all this geopolitical volatility we often talk about gold as a safe haven. You actually have a very bullish take on gold. You see gold hitting forty four hundred in Q1 right obviously this year. But we're looking at the metal complex. Which one do you see having the biggest tailwind due to some of this geopolitical uncertainty. In recent weeks we've seen copper and silver also move higher on some similar concerns not about Venezuela but just about geopolitics. Well certainly gold is the standard safe haven metal. But then it takes along silver and platinum with it. And those two metals silver and platinum have very good supply demand fundamentals where we are in a structural deficit. Demand is turning out to be stronger than than we thought for for platinum. For example we're not seeing this level of recycling that we were hoping for. So we could continue to see a very strong platinum market on the fundamentals and also helped by this whole safe haven play as well. And of course there is silver which is also you know the metal critical metal necessary for all the developments in A.I. everything from solar generation to electronic components in data centers. So gold geopolitics help and the fundamentals of the other ones. Also recently just you know based on the strike and also in some recent days we've seen the dollar move higher. Does that change the math on any of this when it comes to gold being a safe haven or some of these other metals. Well I think typically whenever gold rallies precious metals don't do as well. But in this environment we can have both happening where people are using the dollar and precious as a safe haven simultaneously. But the consensus is out there that the U.S. dollar is going to start sliding lower over time.

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