Name: Iran will not fall because of the U.S.: David Roche
Uploaded: 2026-01-05T09:16:15.062Z
Duration: 3 min 54 s
Description: David Roche from Quantum Strategy talks about the protests in Iran, and possibilities for regime change there. He explains why even if the US were to intervene in Iran, it would not fuel a regime change in the country.

David Roche from Quantum Strategy talks about the protests in Iran, and possibilities for regime change there. He explains why even if the US were to intervene in Iran, it would not fuel a regime change in the country.

Tehran

David Roche, speaking to CNBC, addressed the ongoing protests in Iran, noting that about 16 people have died and that such demonstrations are not uncommon in the country. He argued that regime change in Iran is more likely to occur from internal pressures, such as economic hardship and defections among military leaders, rather than through direct U.S. intervention, which he described as logistically challenging.

Roche also highlighted the Iranian regime's inability to address economic issues, citing high inflation and a lack of resources. He suggested that while the current regime may survive the present wave of protests, continued economic decline could eventually lead to its collapse. Roche further noted that a collapse could significantly impact global oil prices, particularly if Iran attempts to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, though he does not expect such a move imminently.

Iran will not fall because of the U.S.: David Roche

If you listen to Rubio today, and you listen to Trump and his gaggle on Air Force One, he is basically saying, not that he's taken over Venezuela to establish democracy, he's taken it over to get at the oil. He's taken it over because he considers that any country, be it Cuba or be it Colombia, in Latin America, which is not run in the way that pleases him, or pleases the current U.S. administration, then the same thing can be done to them. So let's get real. I mean, if this is democracy, then frankly, so is the Nazi regime in Germany. I mean, this is not democracy. This is the exercise of raw power in the support of a system based on spheres of influence. China will have its sphere of influence, Russia will have its sphere of influence, and we are seeing now the beginning of the establishment of U.S. spheres of influence. So don't confuse that with democracy. Right. Okay. What's the next thing that's going to happen? There are protests in Iran happening. About 16 people have died there. We do know that these protests are something that happens quite often in Iran. You've seen a couple of things happen, because when you think about the oil prices and you think about what the reaction from Israel was, Prime Minister Netanyahu particularly congratulating President Trump for a perfect operation in Venezuela, what's next? Is Iran next? Well, Iran will fall if the Iranians take down the Mueller's regime. It's not going to fall, I think, because of an intervention by the United States. It's just too far away and too difficult to go in and grab a clutch of Mueller's and say, okay, we're going to have regime change. What has to happen in Iran is that the current regime has to crack. You have to see that particularly revolutionary guards, generals are changing sides, and you have to see the continued spreading of the protests, which then will produce a situation where the economic circumstances domestic to Iran will cause it to fall. And I think that is the more likely eventuality. In my view, humbly though it is, as always, I think the Mueller's will probably last out this particular protest, but they don't really have any tools to address the economic problems of Iran because they have no money. So the only thing they can do to make people feel that they have a better life is to print more money, which creates more inflation. Now in an economy with 40% inflation and rising, that really is not anything that will work for very long. So I would say this is more a sign that they're on the way out rather than that it's the end game. Okay. You also see that if this does happen, then the oil price would then rise towards 85, dwarfing the Venezuela effect. And you say this only because you think that Iran in its dying throes might try and disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Quickly on that, any comment? Well, the comment very quickly on that is that this will only happen if the Iranian regime is collapsing and if it is completely desperate. It's not a rational move if you're looking for any continuity in the regime because they need to export their own oil through the Straits of Hormuz. So this would be the ultimate end game. But I don't expect that to happen now.

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