France's government under Prime Minister Francois Bayrou looks set to fall after a vote of confidence on Monday (September 8) - but whatever happens next, France looks set for a period of political instability, an analyst told Reuters.

Paris

France is on the brink of a political crisis as Prime Minister François Beyrou has called for a parliamentary vote of confidence. The move comes amid widespread opposition to his proposed budget cuts, including the removal of two public holidays, which have made the budget highly unpopular. Opposition parties have announced their intention to vote against Beyrou, making the government's collapse likely.

President Emmanuel Macron has ruled out holding snap elections if the government falls, instead considering appointing a new prime minister, possibly from the centre-left. However, experts warn that forming a new government capable of passing a budget will be difficult, given the lack of consensus and the country's high debt and deficit levels. The situation leaves France facing significant political uncertainty and the risk of instability.

France's government looks set to fall - what happens next?

France's government could collapse next week, heralding a new political crisis. That's after Prime Minister François Beyrou called for a vote of confidence in Parliament. So the prime minister called a confidence vote really is a gamble. Political science professor Kevin Arsenault said Beyrou's chances of success appear slim. That's with opposition parties declaring that they will vote against the PM. If everybody from the opposition parties can be taken at face value, he will most likely lose this vote and the government will fall. At the heart of the confidence vote is Beyrou's push to implement unpopular budget cuts in 2026, including removing two public holidays. It's a very unpopular budget. And he knew that in proposing this budget, he was going to get a no confidence vote anyway. So his gamble was to essentially call a confidence vote so he could try to see if he could force the other actors in the opposition parties to negotiate with him. Despite the turmoil, President Emmanuel Macron has ruled out snap elections if Beyrou loses. Instead, he might need to appoint a new premier, potentially from the centre-left. But Arsenault said finding enough support for a new premier to pass a budget would be difficult. The major risk here is instability, that there's not a government in place to pass a budget, which must be passed by the end of this year, or we're not sure we'll be in basically uncharted territory here in France. Now there's no easy solution here, because based on opinion polls right now, if the president were to dissolve parliament and hold elections, it's unlikely that things would change. It's most likely that you would have a parliament that is essentially the way it is right now, which is to say, no majority. So the president is really in a difficult position. There's no easy way out here. A significant challenge is the lack of consensus on reducing France's debt, now at 113.9% of GDP, and a deficit that was nearly double the EU's 3% limit last year. Arsenault expects no quick resolution post-vote. The best scenario, he said, would be a new prime minister. That is able to cobble together a budget that can pass and please financial investors. That's the best possible scenario, and if it does happen, it's going to be right at the wire.

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