Meteorologists are tracking a powerful system expected to bring tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail from Oct. 16–19 across much of the central United States.

Little Rock

Meteorologists are warning of a multi-day severe weather event affecting the central United States. The forecast indicates an elevated risk of severe storms, including large hail, damaging winds, flash flooding, and tornadoes, beginning in the high plains of the Texas Panhandle and extending through South Dakota. The threat is expected to progress eastward, with the highest potential for tornadoes centered around Little Rock, Arkansas, and surrounding areas. The severe weather risk will continue to move toward the southeast, with meteorologists closely monitoring atmospheric conditions that support the development of supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes.

Forecasters warn of multi-day storm threat across central U.S.

Welcome to the Forecast Feed. This is where we give you a behind the scenes look at where the forecast comes from and more specifically our thinking and what goes into our forecast products. So the first thing I'm going to show you here is going to be, and what I'm going to be tracking will be an elevated risk of severe weather here as we head throughout pretty much every single day as we head throughout not only two, but also through the weekend. So the first thing I want to point out for you here is as we look at our tornado occurrence by day from since 1950 through 2020, a couple of things stand out. Now normally you would anticipate that most of the severe weather obviously happens in the springtime, but I also want to point out that we do see a pretty good number of severe weather chances in tornadoes here between September, October, and November. And that is going to be the case here as we head throughout the next couple of days because as we head into Thursday, we're going to be watching out for an elevated risk of severe weather here from the high plains of the Texas Panhandle all the way through South Dakota. You can see all those cities right there with large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding being possible in the forecast. Heading into Friday, that risk of severe weather is going to slowly shift its way off to the east. So as that happens, we're going to be watching out for areas, Wichita Falls, Oklahoma City, the I-44 corridor, even I-35 from Wichita, Kansas City, up through Des Moines. We'll be watching out for that risk of severe weather. But it does look like the highest potential for severe weather in the forecast is actually going to be on Saturday. You can see on Saturday, pretty much centered right around Little Rock, Arkansas, there along I-40, that's where we're going to see an elevated risk of not only large hail and damaging winds, but Saturday is going to be when we see the highest potential of tornadoes in the forecast. So this is what we're going to be tracking here as we go forward. And then even after that, heading into Sunday, there's even going to be a threat of severe weather there across parts of the southeast. So you can slowly see that progression of the storm starting off to the west and then slowly shifting the way off to the east. And that's going to be the case here as we go forward. So one of the things I mainly want to show you is what we're looking at for here as meteorologists is the first thing we look at, we kind of do a top-down approach, which means we start off higher in the atmosphere and then we slowly work our way down to the surface levels. So what you're looking at right here is pretty much the energy available at about four to five miles up in the sky. And as we head throughout the next couple of days, those colors that you see really bright on the map, that's where we have a lot of energy in the upper levels or the mid levels, I should say, of the atmosphere. Just a couple of miles above the ground. And you can see as we head into Saturday, see that big ball there that works its way across Texas? That is what's going to lead to that elevated risk of severe weather. So that's the upper levels of the atmosphere. As we go closer to the surface, you can see that what we're looking at right now is pretty much the moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere. So in this map, whenever you start to see blue on the map, especially right here as we head into Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, there's definitely going to be a lot and enough moisture in the atmosphere to support severe weather development and storms to pretty much explode whenever they develop. So what you're looking at right now is pretty much the amount of energy available in the atmosphere to produce those severe thunderstorms. So anytime you start to see colors on this map is whenever there will be a risk of severe weather. So as we head throughout Saturday, Saturday afternoon, you can see eastern Oklahoma into western parts of Arkansas is where we really see that risk of severe weather starting to jump up. And what you're looking at right here is what we call our supercell composite parameter. This is basically the weather models interpretation of all the ingredients there to produce supercell thunderstorms. And as you look at right here, as we head throughout that timeline across the Red River from Oklahoma and Texas, there's going to be an elevated number of supercell thunderstorms possible in the forecast. This also means that whenever we look at the tornado potential as we head throughout Saturday, right along the I-35 corridor south of Oklahoma, right around, it looks like Ada, Oklahoma, we could be watching out for an elevated risk of not only severe weather, but tornadoes as well.

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