In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno breaks down the final 25% of the 2025 hurricane season.

With 75% of the hurricane season concluded, meteorologists note that most storm activity has occurred in the Atlantic, with almost no development in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean. Current atmospheric conditions, particularly high wind shear in the Atlantic, have limited the potential for storms to reach the United States. 

A new tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is being monitored, but both the European and American weather models suggest only a low chance of development. If the system remains south of 15 degrees north latitude, there is a possibility it could enter the Caribbean, where wind shear is expected to decrease. However, forecasters emphasize that the likelihood of significant impact remains low at this stage.

Final 25% of the hurricane season

Hard to believe 75% of the hurricane season is over. We have 25% less We have to keep an eye on a tropical wave coming off Africa the feed brought to you by the Accuweather Pro site where you also Can be a pro. I want to show you this. This is the hurricane season Throughout the six-month time frame here Although sometimes you can get storms before and after the season ends, which is from June 1st through November 20th So we're right around in here. So that means 75% of the season is over You still got about 25% but boy once you get past October, you'll notice the chances of development Really goes down Look what has happened so far this season. How about this? Every storm that has developed except for Barry has been in the Atlantic We have had no storms. Nothing developed in the Gulf or also into the Caribbean and take a look at this When you look at the Caribbean How about this? We don't have anything right now. In fact, if I was looking at the Caribbean right now I'd wonder what month we're in I certainly wouldn't think it's October as there's not much in the way of clouds now the rest of the Atlantic you'll notice we do Have the clouds moving northward here. So nothing right now on the map is Concerning at all. The question is why is this occurring? I want to show you this This is the wind shear product and for those that follow me and have followed the feed, you know, I love this product So what you're looking at here, it's color-coded Where you have the reds and the oranges you have wind shear You start seeing the blues the lighter the colors the less wind shear now just to give you your bearings here This is this is Africa. This is the west coast of Africa here This is the eastern coast of the United States and here is Florida and here is the Gulf Here is the Caribbean look at all of this. This is this evening. Look at all this wind shear I mean pretty much anything coming off Africa that goes in the Atlantic. It's game set match It will not reach the United States. It just won't now. This is this evening. How about a week from now? Does it change much? I'm gonna give you a little hint I want you to watch this right in here the Caribbean where you do have some wind shear right now Here's the Caribbean. You do have some wind shear right now. Watch how it changes a week from now Boom, you see this a lot of lighter colors here a lot of blues a lot of purples. There's not a whole lot Meanwhile, you continue to have the wind shear across the Atlantic So based on that knowledge, I made this graphic earlier today to show you These waves that come off Africa what would happen to them moving forward here? So any wave and this is the current wind shear You know I showed it to you before all this dark purple in the Atlantic and the light purple is low wind shear any wave coming off Africa that takes the northern route And and basically I'm gonna use this 15 degrees north anything that goes north of 15 degrees north There's just no pathway to the United States. It would just diminish get sheared or get pushed away from the US However, any wave that stays south of 15 degrees north while there are going to be some challenges for these waves if They get into the Caribbean Then you have to worry now even as we go forward I think there's enough of a dip in the jet stream off the east coast moving forward even next week that any wave in the Caribbean would probably get pulled northward away from the United States But I would say if it stays south of 15 degrees north there's at least the chance that it could run the gauntlet come across the Caribbean and then Then make a landfall on the United States and with that knowledge. I want to show you this This is our next tropical wave that we're watching. It's coming off floor off the west coast of Africa later this week We have a low chance of development with that So the question is can this develop into a tropical system? And I think there is a window for that to do So now what I want to show you now is I was talking about the pro site the accurate the pro site where you can Look at the computer models. I want to show you how two models I'm going to show you the two main ones the European and the American model what it does For the possibility of development with this and it is interesting and and a little concerning to me both So I want to show you what we're looking at here. This is Saturday and And this is the European model, let's go to Saturday late Saturday night This is the tropical wave to see this little green doesn't look like much. There's the west coast of Africa. There it is That's the European model. This is the American model shows it as well. You see the little yellows little greens. That's the tropical wave Okay, what does it do going forward? Let's go into Monday. This is Monday This is the European right in here and it's south of 15 degrees north. Remember we don't have a lot of wind shear So that's a little concerning to me because I'm just looking at the pattern if it escapes this trough in the Atlantic Then it gets into the Caribbean. Now. I want to show you the American model. It's very interesting Let's let's follow it. I'm gonna take you to next Wednesday the 8th There is the tropical wave. Look how south it is. Here's 15 degrees north pretty far south That would put it in the low wind shear if that's right now And it was also it is far enough south to escape this dip in the jet stream that it wouldn't get pulled northward Now watch what the American model does now. I want to show this to you. I don't think it's right. I don't But watch what it does. There we go. This is Friday It has a storm here in the Eastern Caribbean and watch what it does with it. It takes at ease There it is near Hispaniola. That's a Sunday. That's 10 days from more than 10 days for now It's not this Sunday, but the next Sunday and you watch what it does with it It continues to move it has a landfall in South Florida on the 14th And then into the Gulf as we get into the 17th almost two weeks from now. Is it right? I don't think so But what it does tell me is that is the one to watch and remember we've talked about this The area to keep an eye on moving forward is this zone and that's the feed

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