Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson says monetary policy is "modestly restrictive" and officials should look through the impact of tariffs in consumer price increases. She speaks at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting.

Philadelphia

Federal Reserve official Paulson has indicated that although tariffs are increasing the price level, they are not expected to lead to sustained inflation. He explained that as long as inflation expectations remain anchored, supply-driven price increases from tariffs are unlikely to become a broader inflation problem. 

Paulson noted that current labor market conditions and firms' focus on maintaining market share are helping to prevent tariff-induced price increases from spreading. He also highlighted that monetary policy remains moderately restrictive, which should further limit inflationary pressures. However, he cautioned that continued vigilance is necessary given the uncertainty in the economic environment.

Fed's Paulson doesn't expect sustained inflation from tariffs

My base case is that tariffs will increase the price level, but they won't leave a lasting imprint on inflation. And given this base case, monetary policy should look through tariff effects on prices. Why? Let me start with the economics. Here, the lessons from economic theory are clear. So long as expectations are anchored, increases in prices due to supply effects do not turn into an inflation problem. Going beyond the theory, the data so far have largely been consistent with this view. We're definitely seeing the effects of tariffs in the inflation data. The increase in goods price inflation is clear. But relative to what our analysis predicted, tariff-induced price increases have been somewhat smaller than anticipated. Now, we have seen some strength in services prices as well, and this bears watching. It would be a problem if tariff-induced price increases spill over to inflation more generally. That said, I don't see conditions as supporting problematic spillovers right now. First, labor market conditions are very different than they were during the pandemic when turnover was elevated and workers were job hopping to get higher wages. Some of my contacts have described lowering starting wages, for example. This is not what I would expect to hear if the labor market was going to be a force that accelerated inflation. Second, many firms report being focused on preserving market share, and this makes them motivated to find creative ways to avoid passing along increased costs. Finally, monetary policy is modestly restrictive and has been for some time. The flip side of the famous long and variable legs axiom is that the effects of past policy persist over time. For me, the bottom line is I simply don't see the type of conditions, especially in the labor market, which seem likely to turn tariff-induced price increases into sustained inflation. But I reached this conclusion with an awareness that we need to be careful. We've heard a lot about how uncertainty is delaying some investment projects. When there's greater clarity, we could see a burst of growth. And after four plus years of above target inflation, it's important to consider the ramifications. Firms have had a lot of practice raising prices and consumers have had to get used to a lot of price increases as well.

The U.S. stock market rebounded on Monday (October 13) after President Trump appeared to walk back imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods.

Washington

Markets rebound after Trump appears to soften tone on China tariffs

U.S. President Donald Trump is heading back to the U.S. after his whirlwind trip to the Middle East, where he celebrated the first phase of a peace plan between Israel and Hamas.

Sharm El-Sheikh

Middle East Conflict

Trump, world leaders sign Gaza peace plan and discuss next steps

The government shutdown entered its third week on Monday as the Senate is set to reconvene on Tuesday. CBS News' Nikole Killion has more from Capitol Hill.

Shutdown drags into third week as Senate set to reconvene

Madagascar's President Andry Rajoelina has been flown out of the country in a French military plane, officials have said, after an elite army unit defected to join thousands of protesters demonstrating against corruption and poverty.

Antananarivo

Madagascar's president has fled, officials say, amid Gen Z protests

U.S. President Donald Trump was greeted in Tel Aviv with cheers and a military ceremony as he met families of hostages held in Gaza and addressed Israel's parliament. He now travels to Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, to join world leaders in discussions on Gaza's future.

Tel Aviv-Yafo

Trump meets with Israeli leaders and hostage families

Twenty living hostages were released by Hamas after more than two years in captivity as a ceasefire continues to hold. Families in Israel describe emotional reunions while others continue to await confirmation about missing relatives.

Families reunite as ceasefire brings hostages, prisoners home

Israeli officials have confirmed that all 20 living captives have been released in Gaza.

Israel confirms all 20 living captives in Gaza have been released

The carefully choreographed Israel-Hamas exchange is underway, with Israel set to release around 2,000 Palestinian prisoners following the release of remaining hostages held in Gaza. Noga Tarnopolsky reports from Tel Aviv’s Hostage Square.

Israel-Hamas swap begins as 2,000 Palestinian prisoners set for release

Following his visit to Israel, President Trump will stop in Egypt to co-host a major summit in Sharm el-Sheikh alongside Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi. The meeting will bring together leaders from more than 20 countries to discuss efforts toward peace in Gaza and the wider Middle East.

Donald Trump to co-host chair Gaza peace summit in Egypt

The French presidency announced Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's new cabinet line-up on Sunday (October 12), with most top jobs remaining unchanged at a time when opponents are demanding a political shift to win their support for urgent budget talks.

Paris

French presidency unveils new cabinet as budget pressure intensifies

Seven captives have been handed over to the Red Cross, who will facilitate their transfer to Israeli forces.

Israeli military says Red Cross has received 7 captives in Gaza

On his way to the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters he expects the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas to hold, despite concerns Hamas won’t abide by the deal.

Trump says the 'war is over', Gaza rebuild to start immediately

China on Sunday (October 12) called U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariffs on Chinese goods hypocritical and defended its curbs on exports of rare earth elements and equipment, but stopped short of imposing new levies on U.S. products.

Beijing

Global Tariffs

Beijing blames U.S. for trade tensions, defends rare earth curbs

Afghanistan and Pakistan said they killed dozens of each other's troops during a night of heavy border clashes between the two countries. Afghanistan's Taliban forces launched attacks on Pakistani troops along their shared border in what it called "retaliation for air strikes carried out by the Pakistani army on Kabul".

Chaman

Border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan leave dozens dead

A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas held in Gaza for a third day ahead of the expected release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners and an address by U.S. President Donald Trump to Israel's parliament.

Ceasefire holds in Gaza ahead of hostage release, Trump visit

Zelenskyy called Trump for a second consecutive day to discuss defence and Ukraine's energy sector. It comes as Russia further intensifies its attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure ahead of its harsh winter.

Kyiv

Ukraine Invasion

Zelenskyy has second call with Trump amid Russian strikes

On Sunday, the minister of armed forces in Madagascar acknowledged an officer selected by a military group supporting demonstrators calling for President Andry Rajoelina to resign as the country's new army chief.

Madagascar’s president says coup underway

With a trade war between the U.S. and China intensifying ahead of a Nov. 1 tariff deadline, there’s growing concern Beijing will use Taiwan as a bargaining chip.

Taipei City

Growing fear China will use Taiwan to bargain with U.S.

In a televised address ahead of the planned release of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for unity despite ongoing divisions.

Netanyahu urges Israel put aside ‘differences’ with Gaza

U.S. President Donald Trump blamed Democrats for his decision to lay off thousands of workers across the U.S. government as he followed through on his threat to cut the federal workforce during the government shutdown.

Trump lays off thousands of U.S. government workers amid shutdown

Thousands gathered in Tel Aviv as 48 of the last remaining hostages are expected home after two years of the Israel-Hamas war. The crowd cheered Donald Trump as the peace deal's broker but there were jeers for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Tel Aviv braces for hostage release planned for Monday

Diane Keaton, the Oscar-winning star of Annie Hall and The Godfather films, died Saturday at the age of 79, according to U.S. media reports. Entertainment journalist Johanna Schneller remembers Keaton as 'feisty and funny'.

Hollywood

Oscar winner Diane Keaton dead at 79

Former President Biden is now receiving radiation and hormone therapy to treat his prostate cancer, an aide said. The cancer is considered aggressive.

Biden receiving radiation, hormone therapy to treat aggressive cancer

It is unclear how many people were inside the Tennessee plant that exploded on Friday, but at least 16 people were reported on Saturday. Sheriff Chris Davis announced that there are no survivors. Nicole Valdes reports.

Tennessee

No survivors in Tennessee plant explosion, sheriff says

Thousands of pro-Palestinian protesters in London marked two years since the War in Gaza. However, the British government has seen enough. Haley Ott reports that police have been given sweeping powers to curb repeated demonstrations.

London

British Parliament designates Palestine Action a terrorist organization

Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff has addressed hundreds of thousands of Israelis in what's known as “Hostages Square” in Tel Aviv. Witkoff hailed President Donald Trump for securing the ceasefire. The crowd was less receptive to his praise for Benjamin Netanyahu.

U.S. envoy booed for praising Netanyahu at Tel Aviv rally

A ceasefire is in effect between Hamas and Israel after just over two years of war. An exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinians held prisoner is set to take place in the coming days, and U.S President Donald Trump is set to visit the region on Monday.

Trump set to visit Middle East as peace plan take effect

The families of hostages taken by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023 are eagerly awaiting the return of their loved ones. The peace deal between Israel and Hamas would see the hostages returned within 72 hours of its implementation Friday.

Families of hostages in Gaza await their release

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he's had phone calls with Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump about defence and energy infrastructure. Russian strikes have led to widespread blackouts in Ukraine.

Trump holds call with Zelenskyy after Russian strikes

Gaza City lies in devastation — returning Palestinians find their homes reduced to rubble and familiar streets erased. It comes after a U.S-brokered peace deal came into effect.

Breakdown