As we wait for the next Fed move, Wolfe Research Chief Economist Stephanie Roth and BlackRock Total Return Fund Lead Portfolio Manager David Rogal says "the case for maintenance cuts has actually improved."

Washington

Stephanie Rogal of BlackRock stated that she does not expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, citing persistent inflation above 3 percent and a stable economy. She anticipates potential rate cuts only in 2026. In contrast, David Roth of Wolfe Research believes the case for 'maintenance cuts' has improved, pointing to recent inflation readings below 2 percent and a reduction in services inflation.

Roth also noted that the main factor holding the Fed back is the potential for tariff-driven inflation, which he views as a temporary effect rather than a repeat of the demand-driven inflation seen during the COVID-19 stimulus period. Both analysts agree that the current environment is distinct from previous inflationary periods, but differ on the timing and necessity of rate adjustments.

Fed's next move: BlackRock's Rogal, Wolfe Research's Roth

Stephanie do you think that the Fed should cut at least once this year if not twice. I think that they're not going to end up cutting at all this year. I think we're in an environment where the economy is going to be OK and inflation is going to be sitting here elevated running above 3 percent which is not a great environment for the Fed to be cutting. So I think we're actually going to be sitting here with two cuts in 2026 but none for the rest of this year. How do you feel David. Do you think that you can make a trade based on what the president wants at this point. Is that what that chart was showing or is it reflecting the reality of how many cuts can really be achieved through the end of next year. I think there's a lot of speculation particularly in those that 2026 calendar on the on the next Fed chair and what happens there. But I think actually I have a slightly different perspective. I think the case for maintenance cuts has actually improved in the last few months. If you look at the last four to five months of inflation readings we're running about what we're running really less than 2 percent inflation. We've had not had much pass through from tariffs. We've had a step down in services inflation. And I think the one thing really keeping the Fed from moving is the prospect of tariff driven inflation. And we may see that pick up a little bit in the next few months. But you know when we think about the impact of tariffs we view that more as a consumption tax. We view it more as a transitory effect. It's much different than the covid style inflation that we saw. We saw five trillion dollars of helicopter money during the covid era stimulus that drove demand side inflation. So we think this is a very different environment.

Tens of thousands flee as border fighting between Cambodia and Thailand intensifies — with no ceasefire in sight.

Preah Vihear Province

Cambodia calls for ceasefire with Thailand

Typhoon Co-May has moved away from the Philippines but many low-lying areas are still severely flooded. Three storms dumped a months’ worth of rain in a span of a week on nearly the entire country.

Manila

At least 30 killed in Philippines typhoon

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said she will meet US President Donald Trump on Sunday in Scotland to "discuss transatlantic trade relations."

Glasgow

Global Tariffs

Ursula von der Leyen to meet Donald Trump to discuss trade

President Trump signed an executive order Thursday aimed at dramatically changing how the U.S. approaches homelessness.

Trump signs executive order changing U.S. approach to homelessness

Typhoon Co-May has left a trail of destruction across the Philippines, making landfall in the country's northwestern region. Torrential rains and strong winds have battered towns and cities, damaging homes, roads, and farmland. At least 25 people have been reported dead.

Pangasinan

Philippines hit hard by Typhoon Co-May, dozens killed

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump appeared on Friday to abandon Gaza ceasefire negotiations with Palestinian militant group Hamas, a day after withdrawing their delegations from talks.

Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Netanyahu, Trump appear to abandon Gaza ceasefire negotiations

U.S. President Donald Trump is spending five days in Scotland visiting his luxury golf resorts. While the White House touts the economic impact, some locals say the developments have scarred the land and stirred controversy.

Edinburgh

Trump visits Scotland to tour golf courses amid protests

The U.S. Department of Justice is set to meet with Ghislaine Maxwell, Jeffrey Epstein's convicted accomplice, amid mounting political pressure on President Donald Trump over his administration's handling of the Epstein case.

Ghislaine Maxwell to meet with U.S. Justice Dept. amid Epstein probe

Thailand and Cambodia exchanged heavy artillery fire for a second day on Friday (July 25) as their worst fighting in over a decade intensified and spread to new areas, despite international calls for a ceasefire.

Bangkok

Thailand, Cambodia exchange heavy artillery

France intends to recognise a Palestinian state in September at the UN General Assembly, President Emmanuel Macron said in hopes of bringing peace to the region, but the plan drew angry rebukes from Israel and the United States.

Macron says France will recognize Palestine as a state

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has approved a draft bill to restore the independence of anti-corruption agencies, following nationwide protests and EU concerns over recent reforms that threatened their autonomy.

Ukraine Invasion

Zelensky approves anti-corruption bill after protests

Chinese and European Union leaders have met in Beijing for their first in-person summit since 2023, addressing a range of contentious issues amidst growing trade tensions. The talks, led by Chinese President Xi Jinping and EU officials Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa, highlighted the complex nature of China-EU relations.

Beijing

China-EU summit ends in climate deal, talks strain over Ukraine

The United Kingdom and India have signed a trade agreement that will reduce tariffs on goods from textiles to whisky, cars and spices and allow more market access for businesses. British PM Keir Starmer hailed the agreement as a “landmark moment” for both countries.

London

UK, India sign free trade agreement during Modi visit

President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had a disagreement almost immediately as the two men set foot in the Fed's headquarters in Washington to survey an extensive renovation project on two of the reserve's buildings. Nancy Cordes has more.

Trump, Powell clash during tour of Federal Reserve renovations

Hulk Hogan, the legendary professional wrestler whose real name was Terry Bollea, died on Thursday at the age of 71, according to World Wrestling Entertainment.

Clearwater

Wrestling legend Hulk Hogan dead at the age of 71, WWE says

At least 12 were killed as a Thai-Cambodian border dispute escalated into deadly clashes on Thursday (July 24).

Surin

Thailand bombs Cambodian targets as border clash escalates

According to preliminary data, 43 passengers, including five children, and six crew members were on board.

Tynda

Passenger plane crashes in Russia, killing all 49 people on board

Pro wrestling legend Hulk Hogan has died, World Wrestling Entertainment said in a statement on social media. He was 71. CBS News' Shanelle Kaul has more.

Hulk Hogan dies at 71, WWE says

The Wall Street Journal reports that former Attorney General Pam Bondi told President Trump his name appeared in the Epstein files. The White House denies wrongdoing.

Report: Trump was briefed on mentions in Epstein files

Columbia University will pay $200 million to resolve federal claims it failed to stop harassment of Jewish students during campus protests. The Trump administration had suspended the school's access to $400 million in funding.

New York

Columbia settles for $200 million over antisemitism claims

Israel issued a statement indicating that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asked the Gaza negotiating team to return to Israel for ceasefire talks. CBS News' Ramy Inocencio reports.

Israel brings back Gaza negotiating team for ceasefire 'consultations'

Also in the settlement is an agreement to ask prospective international students “questions designed to elicit their reasons for wishing to study in the United States,” and establishes processes to make sure all students are committed to “civil discourse.”

Columbia University to pay more than $220M in deal with Trump

There are several developments in the cases involving Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the migrant in ICE custody whom the Trump administration wrongly deported. CBS News' Katrina Kaufman reports.

Nashville

Kilmar Abrego Garcia to remain detained following new court orders

Dr. Salvador Plasencia admitted to distributing ketamine to actor Matthew Perry before his 2023 overdose. He is the fourth person to plead guilty in the case and faces up to 40 years in prison.

Los Angeles

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While both sides acknowledged progress on humanitarian issues, talks on a full ceasefire remain stalled. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called for "result-oriented negotiations" to end the devastating war.

Istanbul

Russia and Ukraine conclude third round of peace talks in Istanbul

A passenger plane has crashed in southeastern Russia with up to 49 people onboard. Emergency services say the An-24 aircraft took off from the city of Khabarovsk and was heading to the town of Tynda. Wreckage was found on a mountainside around 15 kilometres from the flight's intended destination.

Russian passenger plane with 49 on board crashes

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy vowed to retain the independence of anti-corruption agencies, bowing to pressure from the first wartime street protests and rare rebukes from European allies.

Kyiv

Zelenskiy to protect anti-corruption agencies, bows to protests

U.S. President Donald Trump's name is among the many appearing in the Epstein files, according to the Wall Street Journal, and he was told as much earlier this year by the U.S. Justice Department.

Trump calls reports he knew his name is in Epstein files ‘fake news’

Dr. Salvador Plasencia, the doctor accused of supplying Matthew Perry with ketamine in the month leading up to his death, has pleaded guilty to four counts  of distribution of ketamine. Plasencia is the fourth of the five people charged in connection with Perry's death to plead guilty.

California

Doctor accused of supplying ketamine to Matthew Perry pleads guilty

Russia and Ukraine have exchanged prisoners following the latest round of talks in Istanbul. The swap, involving dozens of soldiers — some severely wounded and held since the war’s start in 2022 — took place on Wednesday night. While the prisoner exchange marks a rare point of agreement, both delegations remain divided on ceasefire terms.

Breakdown