The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision as economists expect the first cut since 2024. CBS News MoneyWatch correspondent Kelly O'Grady has more on what to expect.

Washington

The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce its first interest rate cut since 2024, with a quarter-point reduction anticipated. This decision is being guided by recent economic data, including a Consumer Price Index showing inflation at 2.9%, which remains above the Fed's 2% target, and ongoing sluggish job growth.

Economists and policymakers are also considering factors such as consumer spending, sentiment, and the impact of recent tariff increases. While the rate cut may provide some relief, its effects are expected to be limited for lower- and middle-income Americans, many of whom continue to face financial challenges due to inflation outpacing income growth.

Fed likely to make first interest rate cut since 2024

The other big story we're tracking for you, the Federal Reserve making its highly anticipated interest rate announcement, well let's see, less than an hour from now, in the room for the first time, the newest Fed Governor, Stephen Moran. CBS News Money Watch correspondent, Kelly O'Grady is at the New York Stock Exchange this morning, watching this very closely. Kelly, good morning, great to see you. Update us on what to expect today. I know as you and I spoke yesterday, the expectation is that there will be a quarter percent cut, but what data is driving today's decision? That's right, so we have 100% probability that we are going to get some kind of interest rate cut, and you are exactly right, we are expecting a quarter point rather than the bigger jumbo half point. The data that all of these economists in the room are talking about focuses on pricing data, inflation, so remember we got the Consumer Price Index last week, as well as a number of other inflation reads, and they're also looking at the job market. Remember, the inflation rate stands at 2.9% at that last Consumer Price Index reading, which is not where the Fed wants it to be. Remember, they want that inflation rate at 2%, but it's not that runaway inflation that economists predicted with the impact of tariffs, and they're weighing that against what is happening in the labor market, and we have had anemic job growth at best for the past few months, so those are the two tangible pieces. They're also going to be considering things like consumer spending as well as consumer sentiment, and then of course these higher tariff rates that went into effect for countries even after those deals were made towards the beginning of August, and sort of predicting when are they going to see that trickle through the prices. All of these pieces of data will go into that decision that we will hear ultimately at 2 p.m. today. Yeah, and one fascinating piece of how our viewers are living their lives, Kelly, is that it truly does matter what your income is and where you are in the economy based on how you view rate increases or cuts. So for example, we saw retail sales increase last month, but that was really only among the more wealthy Americans. Can you paint the economic picture for us for people who are roughly in the middle? Average families, how might they be seeing these numbers? I think that's a really important point that you just spelled out, Errol, that there is really a two-speed economy going on, and we have heard that on earnings call after earnings call, especially, I'm thinking about some comments from the McDonald's CEO, that they were really seeing lower traffic from that lower-income consumer. And that's what's happening. You have these overall numbers in the labor market or consumer spending, but really it's being driven by that higher-income consumer. So when you think about the middle-income consumer, you have people who are looking to get their first home, that that is out of reach. And even though we have seen mortgage rates come down, they're still dealing with inflation that has outpaced income growth when you go back five years, thinking about the beginning of the pandemic. So we talk to small businesses, we talk to middle-income, lower-income families all the time, and they're just feeling behind. So yes, an interest rate cut would provide some relief, but if you think about if you're in credit card debt, a quarter point, it's not really going to move the needle for folks that are struggling under significant debt. Yeah, no, really important things to keep in mind, the lives behind all the data and the numbers. Kelly O'Grady, great to get this update from you. Thanks very much.

On the same day a ground offensive was launched in Gaza City, a United Nations Commission of Inquiry report concluded Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, a finding emphatically denied by Israeli officials.

Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Israel committing genocide in Gaza, UN inquiry finds

Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, said that foreign laboratory tests on biological samples obtained from her husband showed that he was poisoned.

Yulia Navalnaya says foreign tests show her husband was poisoned

Prosecutors formally changed Tyler Robinson, the suspect in the assassination of Charlie Kirk, and said they intend to seek the death penalty. Authorities also revealed exchanges between Robinson and his roommate.

Utah County

Prosecutors formally charge Charlie Kirk shooting suspect

U.S. President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrived at Windsor Castle and were greeted by King Charles III, Queen Camilla, Prince William and Kate, the Prince and Princess of Wales. CBS News' Ed O'Keefe has the latest.

Windsor

Trump greeted by British royal family at Windsor Castle

The eyes of the global financial markets are on the US Federal Reserve. It's expected to be cut later on Wednesday, around a quarter-point. But US President Donald Trump has called repeatedly for much steeper rate cuts.

Global markets watch as Trump challenges Fed independence

The U.S. Secretary of State has visited Qatar a week after Israel attacked a meeting of the Hamas negotiating team in Doha. Marco Rubio met Qatar's Prime Minister and the Emir, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani.

Doha

Marco Rubio visits Doha, holds talks with Emir and PM

Utah County Attorney Jeff Gray provided updates Tuesday on the case against Tyler Robinson, the 22-year-old accused of fatally shooting Charlie Kirk. Robinson is charged with seven counts, including aggravated murder. The state is seeking the death penalty.

Charlie Kirk shooting suspect charged with murder

A judge has dismissed two state terrorism-related charges against Luigi Mangione, the 27-year-old accused of killing UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson last December. CBS News' Anna Schecter has more details.

New York

Luigi Mangione's state terrorism charges dismissed in CEO killing

Israel said it has launched its ground offensive in Gaza City. It comes as a United Nations inquiry finds that Israel's nearly two-year war on Gaza is a genocide. Israeli leaders have denounced the report as "distorted and false."

Israel launches main phase of ground offensive in Gaza City

U.S. President Donald Trump becomes the first U.S. president to receive a second state visit as Britain faces protests over immigration and growing support for the pro-Trump Reform Party. CBS News correspondent Ed O'Keefe reports from London.

London

Trump begins state visit to London amid rising political tensions

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Monday (Sept. 15) the U.S. military carried out a second strike against an alleged Venezuelan drug boat. CBS News' Charlie D'Agata has the latest.

Caracas

Trump announces second U.S. strike on alleged Venezuelan drug boat

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened investigations into the ‘radical left,’ following the shooting death of Charlie Kirk. Vice-President J.D. Vance on Kirk’s podcast encouraged people to turn in those who celebrated the conservative commentator’s killing.

Charlie Kirk’s killing prompts broad threats from Trump administration

The United States and China reached a framework agreement to switch short-video app TikTok to U.S.-controlled ownership, U.S. officials said.

Washington County

U.S., China reach framework deal on TikTok

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met in Jerusalem with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as close U.S. ally Qatar gathered other Arab nations' leaders for a summit to issue unified condemnation of last week's Israeli airstrike targeting Hamas leaders in the Qatari capital.

What to know about Rubio's trip to Israel, Qatar summit

President Trump announced the U.S. military has carried out a second strike on alleged Venezuelan "narcoterrorists" in international waters. Three men were killed.

Trump announces second strike on alleged drug boat from Venezuela

Arab and Islamic leaders are gathering in Qatar for an emergency summit following an Israeli attack on Hamas leaders in Doha. The meeting aims to show unity and increase pressure on Israel.

Arab, Islamic leaders meet in Qatar after Israeli attack on Hamas

HBO's medical drama, "The Pitt" beat out heavily-favored Apple TV's "Severance" for outstanding drama series at the Emmy Awards. Meanwhile, Apple TV's "The Studio" walked away with 13 awards and broke the Emmy record for the most wins by a comedy in a single season.

Los Angeles

"The Pitt," "The Studio," and "Adolescence" win big at Emmy Awards

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Israel on Sunday to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials amid the nation's recent strike in Doha, Qatar, and intensified attacks in Northern Gaza.

Israel hosts U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio

Over the weekend, tens of thousands of people marched through London in a rally billed as in support of free speech. Many of the chants and speeches at the rally, which was organized by a far-right activist, were protesting against immigration.

Thousands in London march in rally organized by far-right activist

U.S. and Chinese officials concluded a first day of talks in Madrid on their strained trade ties, a looming divestiture deadline for Chinese short-video app TikTok, amid Washington's demands that its allies place tariffs on imports from China over its purchases of Russian oil.

Madrid

Global Tariffs

U.S., China begin trade talks in Spain as TikTok deadline looms

Police are searching for a motive in Wednesday's killing of conservative activist and influencer Charlie Kirk. Authorities say interviews with family and friends of the 22-year-old suspect suggest he could have been radicalized in the dark corners of the internet.

Orem

Charlie Kirk shooting suspect 'not cooperating' with authorities

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said ahead of the trip that he will be seeking answers from Israeli officials about how they see the way forward in Gaza. Rubio's trip comes after Israel's attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar that upended efforts to broker an end to the conflict.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Israel for talks

Five U.S. F-35 fighter jets landed in Puerto Rico amid escalating tensions with Venezuela. Separately, Caracas said 18 armed U.S. Navy personnel raided a tuna boat sailing in Venezuelan waters.

San Juan

U.S. sends jets to Puerto Rico amid escalating tensions with Venezuela

U.S. President Donald Trump said he believes the Russia-Ukraine war would end if all NATO countries stopped buying oil from Russia and placed tariffs on China of 50 percent to 100 percent for its purchases of Russian petroleum.

Trump calls on NATO members to stop purchasing Russian oil

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Israel on Sunday, as Israel intensified its attacks against northern Gaza. The trip is taking place after President Donald Trump rebuked Israel over the unprecedented attack against Hamas leaders meeting in Doha.

Tel Aviv-Yafo

Marco Rubio visits Israel to push for Gaza ceasefire talks

NATO announced plans to beef up the defense of Europe's eastern flank on Friday, two days after Poland shot down drones that had violated its airspace in the first known action of its kind by a member of the Western alliance during Russia's war in Ukraine.

Warsaw

Ukraine Invasion

NATO bolsters its eastern flank after Russian drones hit Poland

Protests broke out in Chicago on Saturday against President Trump's immigration crackdown. A group of Catholic clergy led what they called a "People's Mass" outside the Great Lakes Naval Base. The base will also be used by Immigration and Customs Enforcement as a staging area for deportations.

Chicago

Tensions over immigration escalate in Chicago

More than 100,000 people took to the streets in London on Saturday, in what's believed to be the largest anti-immigration protest in British history. Organizers called it a "Unite the Kingdom" rally.

Huge crowds march for right-wing "Unite the Kingdom" rally in London

President Trump signaled a new position on Russia's war with Ukraine. He said the U.S. will agree to additional sanctions on Moscow, but only when NATO allies stop buying Russian oil. Willie James Inman has more details.

Trump says NATO must stop buying Russian oil

Tyler Robinson, the 22-year-old suspect in the murder of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, is being held in Spanish Fork, Utah. Officials have yet to identify a precise motive for Wednesday's shooting. Carter Evans has new developments.

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