Marko Papic from BCA Research tells us why the markets are not concerned with Israel's continued Gaza offensive

Jerusalem

Global financial markets have remained largely unaffected by Israel's latest ground offensive in Gaza. Analysts attribute this to the absence of major disruptions in oil production and export from key regional producers such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Iran. Unlike the oil embargo of 1973, there has been no indication that these countries intend to use oil as leverage in response to the conflict.

Additionally, while Gulf leaders have met to discuss joint defense plans and have signaled a cooling of normalization efforts with Israel, there has been little concrete action taken that would impact global markets. The normalization process, including the Abraham Accords, has already been stalled for over a year, and no significant new measures have been announced.

Explained: Why markets are unmoved by Israel's Gaza offensive

Our viewers are looking at live pictures out of Gaza City right now where it's still early morning. Marco, what can we expect to see unfold over the coming hours and days if this ground offensive does indeed materialize? Well, to be honest with you, I have no idea. And the reason I have no idea is because multiple Israeli ground offensives have not accomplished really much. As such, this is yet another incursion that is unlikely to root out Hamas. And the reason for that is that Hamas is an ideology that will persist, either in its current form or in some future form. We've seen that with other terrorist movements over the years. As such, I think that we need to understand that there's a domestic political component to Israeli actions, and that as long as Prime Minister Netanyahu believes that this will serve those domestic interests, I think that he will continue to conduct such ground offensives. My question is, what can the region really do about it? So far, various states have been unwilling to curb the production and export of oil to the rest of the world as a tool to punish Israel for what's going on. Now, remember, that is something that happened in 1973. That was extremely market relevant at the time. And so we would have to really see the big oil producers of the region, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Iran, join and create an oil embargo. There is absolutely no talk of that. And therefore, I think that this will continue to be completely and utterly market irrelevant for global investors. So walk me through how you expect these Gulf leaders to respond, because the Israeli strike on Doha last week was unprecedented. We've seen Gulf leaders meet in emergency session and say they're going to review joint defense plans. What will that collective response actually look like? Well, we're hearing from the region that the Abraham Accords are over, the normalization of relationship with Israel is clearly not on the front burner. But that's really been the case for more than a year. It almost seems that only commentators in the West and the U.S. still have held out hopes that there will be some normalization of relationship between Israel and some of the other Gulf states. Other than that, I don't see the states really doing anything of any significance.

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