AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on Aug. 13 to discuss the latest on Tropical Storm Erin.

Tropical Storm Erin, currently located east of the Leeward Islands, is forecast to intensify as it moves into warmer waters and encounters lower wind shear. Meteorologists expect Erin to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season and potentially reach major hurricane status as it approaches the area east of the Bahamas.

Most computer models predict Erin will turn northward, remaining offshore and avoiding direct impact on the U.S. mainland. However, forecasters caution that the storm will still produce dangerous surf and rip currents along the Eastern Seaboard. Historical storm tracks suggest a majority of similar storms have stayed east of the United States, but ongoing monitoring is advised.

Erin to become first Atlantic hurricane of 2025

There's Tropical Storm Aaron about 1400 miles to the east of the Leeward Islands. It's still moving west at 20. That's pretty quick. There's enough wind shear in there and, you know, usually when storms are moving that fast, they don't typically strengthen much, but that will be slowing down. All right, talking points, I want to, what are the important points moving forward here with Aaron? First of all, this is going to rapidly intensify into the seasons, not only first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin, but the first major hurricane early next week, it'll be located east of the Bahamas. We'll have to see how far east, damaging surf and rip currents up and down the Eastern Seaboard next week. Those are what I would call the indirect impacts from Aaron. All right. With that, I want to bring in our hurricane expert. You know who he is. Don't have to come up with a title besides hurricane, actually like Joe Lumberg's the crystal ball. So we're going to work on that. Alex DiSilva breaking it down. Yesterday at this time, Alex, first thing you did when you came in, you and I chatted and you had mentioned to me that there was dry air in the center of circulation of Aaron and that with the cooler water temperatures really prevented development yesterday. What do you see in the water vapor loop this morning? Yeah, I see the storm is slowly trying to get a little bit better organized right now. It is moving into areas where the water temperatures are warmer. We always talk about 80 degrees Fahrenheit as kind of the benchmark for tropical development. It was yesterday in areas where it was mid to upper 70s. So a little bit cooler than you would like to see for intensification. Now it's starting to get into those 80 degree water temperatures. Still got some dry air to deal with, but you can start to see signs of organization here. More thunderstorms are starting to fire around the center. And I expect that to continue through the day today as we see slow intensification. Still some sheer light to moderate, but you know, as we've been pointing out, the danger area for this system is north and east of the Leeward Islands. As we're going to be watching a big area of high pressure building aloft, that means lowering wind shear. And Alex, you show me water temperatures north and east of the Leeward Islands around 85, 86. Yeah, absolutely. 85, 86, some areas 87 degrees. So extremely, extremely warm water temperatures. And again, like you just said, it's moving into an area. All that light purple is lower wind shear, very low wind shear. And also the storm is going to be slowing down, so it's going to impose kind of less wind shear on itself because it's going to be moving slower. So that's why we think it could really explode once it gets north of the Lesser Antilles there. And we forecast it to become a category three hurricane sometime later this weekend. There's always forks in the roads when you're talking about hurricanes, and we believe there are two forks in the road. The first fork in the road I think is the most critical because this is the one where I'm not 100 percent sold yet that we're going to get that northern track, although all of the computer guidance, most of it, Alex, you've been coming through that, does suggest that. Yeah, almost all of the computer guidance, especially during the day today, does show that recurve. But until the storm officially starts to make that northern turn, we can't rule out impacts anywhere at the current time. So while we think the most likely scenario is a turn out to see safely away from the U.S. coast, we do have to watch the trends here over the next couple of days just to make sure it indeed does make that turn. Of course, the second fork in the road is then Tuesday, Wednesday, and we're getting a little more confident that we are going to see scenario number one. That is a stronger dip in the jet stream, a little faster, that would steer it out. Everything I look at, Alex, would you agree with this, suggests that scenario number two right now seems to be less likely. Yes, I absolutely agree. The Bermuda high is a little bit weaker into the east and that trough coming in from the west a little bit stronger. So that should act as the kicker to help prevent this from going into the U.S. mainland. One last thing, and I know you and I are in favor of this. I love looking at history because we have such a robust history of storm tracks in the Atlantic. So what we did here is we took all of the storms that we have in August and September, given where Aaron's location is, and you could see all of the tracks, the majority of which are east of the United States. But there's some heavy hitters during this time frame over the history that's headed toward the U.S. Yeah, there indeed is. And one of them is the great 1938 Long Island Express hurricane. Now we don't expect anything to happen along those lines. We do expect a turnout to see, but it always is a little bit interesting to look back at history and see, you know, where those storms go that are in this current location. So we do still expect that turn, but it is interesting to note that there are a few storms that did stay a little bit further west and did impact the United States directly. We all worked on this graphic together this morning. You look at the history, you look at the meteorology and the pattern. Right now, about 70% chance that direct impacts, rain and wind, stay off the east coast. Right, Alex? Yep, but we're going to see big time waves and big time rip currents along the entirety of the east coast. We are very confident in that. AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva will talk to you later on this morning. Stay with us.

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