A new American Society for Microbiology study revealed that it could be possible to use elements in the air to predict surges in flu and COVID-19 infections. Dr. Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, joins "The Daily Report" to discuss.

Washington

A study by the American Society for Microbiology has found a correlation between increases in airborne fungal spores and surges in respiratory viruses such as flu and COVID-19. This discovery could lead to improved early warning systems for public health officials, although the exact mechanism behind the relationship remains unclear.

The discussion also highlighted ongoing research into the evolution of the H5N1 bird flu virus, which is adapting but has not yet shown efficient human transmission. Concerns were raised about the recent cancellation of funding for a bird flu vaccine, with experts emphasizing the importance of proactive measures to prepare for potential future pandemics.

Elements in the air could help predict flu, COVID-19 surges, study finds

A new state reveals it could be possible to use elements in the air to predict surges in flu and COVID-19 infections. According to findings from the American Society for Microbiology, researchers found that when there is an increase in airborne fungal spores, there's also an increase in cases of respiratory viruses. This could potentially provide an early warning system to public health systems. Dr. Amish Adelja joins us now. He's a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. And doctor, thank you very much for being with us. What is the science behind that and how significant are these findings? Well, this is a very fascinating study and I think a lot more needs to be explained to really understand what the relationship is between fungal spore counts and COVID-19 or influenza surges. But we've always known that the environment influences when people get infected. We see respiratory viruses often following a cyclical pattern. And we're looking always for better indicators to be able to predict that. We use wastewater. We kind of have our past experience. And now fungal spores might be something that picks up a kind of a signal that we don't quite understand of what's going on in the environment that makes things that spread through the air more efficiently spreading through the air. I think what we want to know is what the mechanism is here, because that to me is the puzzling part of it. But there clearly is a signal here and we always want to refine our ability to forecast when respiratory virus season is going to be bad. And Dr. Adalja, another medical study published by the American Society for Microbiology, it's suggesting that the bird flu virus is evolving and finding new ways to avoid human immune defenses. What more can you tell us about that? How alarming is that to you? This is also another really great study that was presented at that same conference. And what this does is looks at all the H5N1 cases that have occurred over several decades and looks at the genetics of the proteins of this virus and tries to see, are they evolving? And are they evolving in a way that is likely to cause more problems for humans? And what they're seeing is, yes, this virus, like all other viruses, is evolving. But I think the big thing to remember is that this virus, H5N1, the major avian influenza outbreak that we're dealing with the United States, has not really shown the ability to infect humans efficiently. Yes, it's evolving. Yes, it's adapting to mammals. But it still hasn't made that major jump that it needs to, to be able to cause a widespread outbreak in humans. And I think we have to keep monitoring it. And these AI tools that are used are really elegant ways to do it. And this is something we have to be proactive about. But I don't think it changes the risk calculation right now. This is all happening, though, as the Health and Human Services Department cancelled funding for the development of a bird flu vaccine. How does that sit with you? It was a horrible decision. What we want is a proactive approach to avian influenza. We want to be ahead of the curve. We know that an avian influenza pandemic is inevitable. 1918 was an avian influenza pandemic. And now we've got all these great tools, including mRNA vaccines, but we need to actually deploy them. We need to use that kind of philosophy of operational warp speed to get ready as quickly as possible and to speed vaccine development. And this decision by HHS to cancel the Moderna contract is the exact opposite of it. It actually makes us less safe. Dr. Amish Hidalgo, thank you very much for joining us with your insight. Thanks for having me.

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