In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at what's going on in the tropics.

Meteorologists are observing an unusually quiet period in the Atlantic Basin, with no tropical storms or hurricanes expected to make landfall in the United States in the near future. This calm is notable given that it coincides with the statistical peak of hurricane season, when activity is typically highest. 

The lack of storm development is attributed to a combination of dry, dusty air and areas of wind shear that are inhibiting the formation of tropical systems. However, forecasts indicate that wind shear may decrease in parts of the Caribbean and southern Atlantic later in the month, coinciding with high ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico. These evolving conditions could increase the potential for tropical storm development as the season progresses.

Eerily quiet in the Atlantic Basin

We continue to watch the tropics. Now, coming up, we have quiet weather in the tropics, and this is a huge statement. I don't think we're looking at any tropical landfalls, hurricanes or tropical storms in the United States for the next 10 days. You're watching the forecast feed where we take a look at what's in my head, and I'm gonna show you some of the tools that I use to help determine what's gonna happen in the tropics moving forward here. First of all, let's take a look at the season. We are now in the heart of the hurricane season here, September 10th. This is where statistically we see most of the tropical storms and hurricanes, but yet there is nothing, and I mean nothing, in the Atlantic Basin right now. There's a reason for that. Ingredients. Now, in order for tropical development, these are the ingredients you need. Warm water, limited wind shear, right? Weak winds aloft, and plenty of moisture. What you don't look for is dry, dusty air, but right now, we don't really have any of these ingredients. We certainly have the warm water, but as far as the dry air, we've got tons of that right now. Let me show you the water vapor loop here. What are we looking at? Look at all of this dry air. This is along the West Coast of Africa. Here is Florida. Here are the islands, and look at all of this dry air. You should not see all of this dry air this time of the year. Now, from a wind shear perspective, let me show you our wind shear graphic here. Where you see the dark purple is where you have the wind shear. Where you see the light purple, you don't have much wind shear. Well, right in here is where you have the wind shear. Now, overall, there's not a lot of wind shear in the Atlantic Basin, but this is strategically located because as tropical waves come off Africa, they run into this wind shear and they weaken. Now, this is what we were worried about last week. Remember, we were worried about something trying to form in the Southern Atlantic. There was a reason for that because when you take a look at the wind shear product, there's low wind shear throughout this whole area, the Southern Atlantic and the Eastern Caribbean. However, when you go back, and let me show you this, when you go back and you look at the water vapor loop again, where you have the light wind shear, you've got the dry air. That's why we're not getting any development right now. So here's the question. What's gonna happen with the wind shear moving forward here? Well, there's a product for that. It's the wind shear product. I'm gonna show you the modeling that I look at for wind shear right now. Let me show this to you here, and we're gonna track the wind shear. Now, it looks complicated, but it's very easy. So where you see the dark colors in here, this is where you have high wind shear. WHWS, where you have the blue colors, low wind shear. Now, look at the Atlantic right now, a lot of wind shear. Let's go forward. This is this evening. What about Thursday evening? You still see the darker colors in the Atlantic. Let's go to Friday evening. You still see these darker colors that cover much of the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic. Let's go to Sunday, moving forward here. As we're a few days away, what do you see? You still see all of this wind shear in the Caribbean and also in the Western Atlantic. How about a week from now? What do we start seeing? Okay, some changes. You still have this wind shear in the Atlantic, but you'll notice you're starting to get blue colors and less colors here in the Caribbean, and also as you head into the Southern Atlantic here. So that's where I think we're gonna start getting some problems here, that you're starting to get lower wind shear in those areas. And at the same time, what's happening? Well, with the lower wind shear, here's the concern I have. Because when you look at this area in here, you're starting to get lower wind shear as we move into the latter half of this month across the Caribbean and the Southern Gulf. Why are we concerned? Look at these water temperatures in the Atlantic, specifically here, as I move on over. You're starting to see high water temperatures. What this graphic is showing you is the ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico. What does that mean? Well, that's a fancy way of saying, not only do you have warm water, but it's through a large depth of the ocean. So warm water, deep water warmth, means you get a lot of energy in the Gulf of Mexico. And as a result, if any storms, and I mean any storms, come into the Gulf or in the Caribbean, you're gonna be dealing with all of this warm, deep water. And you know what that means? That means the Gulf and the Atlantic is a ticking time bomb. Anything that gets into those bodies of waters will explode.

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