The European Central Bank is expected to leave interest rates untouched for the first time in more than a year as it awaits clarity on what US President Donald Trump's tariffs will do to inflation. Bloomberg's Lizzy Burden reports from Frankfurt.

Frankfurt am Main

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its current interest rates, with most economists surveyed predicting no change at this meeting. The decision is influenced by ongoing uncertainty around a potential trade deal between Brussels and Washington, which could introduce 15% tariffs and impact the ECB's future policy direction.

While some analysts believe that such tariffs could signal an end to rate cuts, others, including Bloomberg Economics, suggest that further cuts may still be necessary in the coming months. ECB President Christine Lagarde is anticipated to remain cautious in her statements, especially regarding the euro and downside risks to economic growth, as markets closely watch for signals about possible rate moves in the near future.

ECB rate cut decision: What to expect

will be a factor. The ECB expects to be on hold. Tom, all but two economists in our survey expect this hold today because by September, hopefully, and I know I say this every meeting, we will have more clarity on trade. We will definitely have more data and crucially we will have the updated forecast. But that trade deal between Brussels and Washington, which as you say our reporting suggests is just around the corner, 15% tariffs following in the footsteps of Japan, that could be the game changer that decides whether today marks the start of a pause in cuts for the ECB or the end to cuts for the ECB. If you look at the notes from Berenberg and RBC, they say 15% would mean the end to cuts. But I was speaking to our economists at Bloomberg Economics last night. They say 15% is still higher than that 10% baseline that was in the ECB's June forecast that suggested they would still need to cut in September and then you have to layer on to that the sectoral levies as well. So our economists say 15% would still mean cuts in September and December. Because of all of this uncertainty, I would expect Christine Lagarde to keep her cards very close to her chest today, Tom. Listen to what she says when it comes to the euro. I wouldn't expect her to be as precise as Vice President Luis Deguindos who told us in Sintra that 120 is the level on euro-dollar that complicates matters for the euro area. It's hard to make that argument when Lagarde is also trying to say that there should be a bigger role for the euro on the global stage. But listen, if she talks about the downside risks to the euro economy ahead, last meeting in June, she was very confident in talking about what's a good position the economy was in. Is she a little more humble than that this time? Any downside risks to growth that she mentions, this market is going to latch on to that as a signal that September is at least live for a rate cut.

Typhoon Co-May has left a trail of destruction across the Philippines, making landfall in the country's northwestern region. Torrential rains and strong winds have battered towns and cities, damaging homes, roads, and farmland. At least 25 people have been reported dead.

Pangasinan

Philippines hit hard by Typhoon Co-May, dozens killed

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump appeared on Friday to abandon Gaza ceasefire negotiations with Palestinian militant group Hamas, a day after withdrawing their delegations from talks.

Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Netanyahu, Trump appear to abandon Gaza ceasefire negotiations

U.S. President Donald Trump is spending five days in Scotland visiting his luxury golf resorts. While the White House touts the economic impact, some locals say the developments have scarred the land and stirred controversy.

Edinburgh

Trump visits Scotland to tour golf courses amid protests

The U.S. Department of Justice is set to meet with Ghislaine Maxwell, Jeffrey Epstein's convicted accomplice, amid mounting political pressure on President Donald Trump over his administration's handling of the Epstein case.

Washington

Ghislaine Maxwell to meet with U.S. Justice Dept. amid Epstein probe

Thailand and Cambodia exchanged heavy artillery fire for a second day on Friday (July 25) as their worst fighting in over a decade intensified and spread to new areas, despite international calls for a ceasefire.

Bangkok

Thailand, Cambodia exchange heavy artillery

France intends to recognise a Palestinian state in September at the UN General Assembly, President Emmanuel Macron said in hopes of bringing peace to the region, but the plan drew angry rebukes from Israel and the United States.

Macron says France will recognize Palestine as a state

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has approved a draft bill to restore the independence of anti-corruption agencies, following nationwide protests and EU concerns over recent reforms that threatened their autonomy.

Ukraine Invasion

Zelensky approves anti-corruption bill after protests

Chinese and European Union leaders have met in Beijing for their first in-person summit since 2023, addressing a range of contentious issues amidst growing trade tensions. The talks, led by Chinese President Xi Jinping and EU officials Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa, highlighted the complex nature of China-EU relations.

Beijing

China-EU summit ends in climate deal, talks strain over Ukraine

The United Kingdom and India have signed a trade agreement that will reduce tariffs on goods from textiles to whisky, cars and spices and allow more market access for businesses. British PM Keir Starmer hailed the agreement as a “landmark moment” for both countries.

London

Global Tariffs

UK, India sign free trade agreement during Modi visit

President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had a disagreement almost immediately as the two men set foot in the Fed's headquarters in Washington to survey an extensive renovation project on two of the reserve's buildings. Nancy Cordes has more.

Trump, Powell clash during tour of Federal Reserve renovations

Hulk Hogan, the legendary professional wrestler whose real name was Terry Bollea, died on Thursday at the age of 71, according to World Wrestling Entertainment.

Clearwater

Wrestling legend Hulk Hogan dead at the age of 71, WWE says

At least 12 were killed as a Thai-Cambodian border dispute escalated into deadly clashes on Thursday (July 24).

Surin

Thailand bombs Cambodian targets as border clash escalates

According to preliminary data, 43 passengers, including five children, and six crew members were on board.

Tynda

Passenger plane crashes in Russia, killing all 49 people on board

Pro wrestling legend Hulk Hogan has died, World Wrestling Entertainment said in a statement on social media. He was 71. CBS News' Shanelle Kaul has more.

Hulk Hogan dies at 71, WWE says

The Wall Street Journal reports that former Attorney General Pam Bondi told President Trump his name appeared in the Epstein files. The White House denies wrongdoing.

Report: Trump was briefed on mentions in Epstein files

Columbia University will pay $200 million to resolve federal claims it failed to stop harassment of Jewish students during campus protests. The Trump administration had suspended the school's access to $400 million in funding.

New York

Columbia settles for $200 million over antisemitism claims

Israel issued a statement indicating that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asked the Gaza negotiating team to return to Israel for ceasefire talks. CBS News' Ramy Inocencio reports.

Israel brings back Gaza negotiating team for ceasefire 'consultations'

Also in the settlement is an agreement to ask prospective international students “questions designed to elicit their reasons for wishing to study in the United States,” and establishes processes to make sure all students are committed to “civil discourse.”

Columbia University to pay more than $220M in deal with Trump

There are several developments in the cases involving Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the migrant in ICE custody whom the Trump administration wrongly deported. CBS News' Katrina Kaufman reports.

Nashville

Kilmar Abrego Garcia to remain detained following new court orders

Dr. Salvador Plasencia admitted to distributing ketamine to actor Matthew Perry before his 2023 overdose. He is the fourth person to plead guilty in the case and faces up to 40 years in prison.

Los Angeles

Doctor pleads guilty in Matthew Perry death case

While both sides acknowledged progress on humanitarian issues, talks on a full ceasefire remain stalled. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called for "result-oriented negotiations" to end the devastating war.

Istanbul

Russia and Ukraine conclude third round of peace talks in Istanbul

A passenger plane has crashed in southeastern Russia with up to 49 people onboard. Emergency services say the An-24 aircraft took off from the city of Khabarovsk and was heading to the town of Tynda. Wreckage was found on a mountainside around 15 kilometres from the flight's intended destination.

Russian passenger plane with 49 on board crashes

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy vowed to retain the independence of anti-corruption agencies, bowing to pressure from the first wartime street protests and rare rebukes from European allies.

Kyiv

Zelenskiy to protect anti-corruption agencies, bows to protests

U.S. President Donald Trump's name is among the many appearing in the Epstein files, according to the Wall Street Journal, and he was told as much earlier this year by the U.S. Justice Department.

Trump calls reports he knew his name is in Epstein files ‘fake news’

Dr. Salvador Plasencia, the doctor accused of supplying Matthew Perry with ketamine in the month leading up to his death, has pleaded guilty to four counts  of distribution of ketamine. Plasencia is the fourth of the five people charged in connection with Perry's death to plead guilty.

California

Doctor accused of supplying ketamine to Matthew Perry pleads guilty

Russia and Ukraine have exchanged prisoners following the latest round of talks in Istanbul. The swap, involving dozens of soldiers — some severely wounded and held since the war’s start in 2022 — took place on Wednesday night. While the prisoner exchange marks a rare point of agreement, both delegations remain divided on ceasefire terms.

Ukraine-Russia talks: Delegations remain divided on ceasefire terms

After reviewing the Epstein files, Attorney General Pam Bondi told President Trump his name appears alongside many others, according to a new report in the Wall Street Journal. CNN’s Paula Reid details what we know.

DOJ told Trump his name is among many in Epstein files: Sources

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a bill reducing the autonomy of two Ukrainian anti-corruption bureaus. Ukrainians protested in Lviv and Kyiv, concerned that the bill could lead to more corruption and threaten Ukraine’s chances of entering the European Union.

Ukrainians protest new anti-corruption law

A federal judge on Wednesday ordered Kilmar Abrego Garcia's release as a second judge barred ICE from taking him into custody. CBS News legal reporter Katrina Kaufman has more.

Judge orders Kilmar Abrego Garcia's release

A judge on Wednesday (July 23) sentenced Bryan Kohberger to four life sentences without the possibility of parole after he pleaded guilty to the murders of four University of Idaho students in 2022.

Breakdown