Damaging surf and rip currents are expected for the entire U.S. East Coast next week.

East Coast of the United States

Tropical storm Erin, currently moving west at 20 miles per hour east of the Bahamas, is forecast to intensify into a major hurricane. Meteorologists expect the storm to generate rough and potentially damaging surf, along with dangerous rip currents, across the entire US East Coast. 

Historical storm tracks suggest that most storms in Erin's current position do not directly impact the US coast, and current forecasts indicate a 70% chance of no direct rain or wind impacts. However, a moderate risk remains for the North Carolina coastline, and authorities are monitoring the storm's path closely, particularly as it is expected to turn north. The situation may change depending on the storm's movement and atmospheric conditions.

East coast to experience dangerous rip currents from Erin

Want to give you the latest on tropical storm Aaron hasn't changed much Throughout the morning hours still moving pretty quick though west at 20 miles per hour and that tells you that there's a lot of stronger Winds in in the middle upper part of the atmosphere and some wind shear although it is moving with the storm It is over warmer water and it may get a little better organized today But the time frame to watch is going to be beginning later tomorrow and then Friday and Saturday This is going to intensify into a major hurricane That's category 3 or greater maximum stain winds of at least 111 miles per hour early next week It's located east of the Bahamas regardless of the track rough surf at least rough surf If not damaging surf and rip currents across the entire East Coast Next week all right joining me now is chief meteorologist John Porter, and you know John You and I whenever we start tracking Hurricanes and storms and and you're a proponent of this as well. We always like to take a look at okay What's the history of where the storm is located now? And what history says where it's going to go behind you are all of the storm tracks within 60 nautical miles of where Aaron is located now during the months of August and September and I think it's some useful information It sure is it puts us in a historical context Here's the current location of Aaron and here's the US East Coast I should say the United States here in the US East Coast DC down into the Carolinas and through here Just for reference and notice lots of the tracks are what we call a recurve They move to the west and then the storms the storm oftentimes will move along the periphery of an of an upper area upper level area of high pressure and That can be a problem just for marine interests off the US East Coast But a few tracks of this of the of similar storms in similar positions Do get back to the East Coast and some of those were pretty significant storms Bernie. Yeah, Isabel the Long Island Express Earl and Gloria all in those tracks and I counted them up. There's 52 storms Seven had direct impacts of rain and wind so that's about 85% of them recurve So that's where we start John with Aaron. We just had map discussion I don't think we we decided to change anything with our current eyepath know our team of hurricane experts We're reviewing all the latest data and information into the Accuweather Hurricane Center and no changes to this track the idea that the storm is going to continue to move to the west But then it starts making a turn to the north here as we make our way from Saturday into Sunday intensifying as it does so And that's where we're going to be watching the that did the track details there very carefully Because the time at which it turns to the north is going to be very critical Yeah, and this is what I call the first fork in the road, right? There's always forks in the road I think there's two of them early next week Sunday Monday, and then Tuesday into Wednesday but I think this is the most critical time John because We're not is this really going to turn as quickly to the north as the guidance Suggests and why is that important? It's very important because if it does make that turn to the north and that's going to Quickly lower the risk across Florida and South Carolina for example, and we'd be able to issue all clears there We are not doing that yet because we'll have to wait for that actual turn to the north to occur Then the other the next question Bernie after that is Is the storm kicked out to sea or is it able to be drawn a little bit closer to the coast? and I think we have some clarity on that because that all depends on the depth of the dip in the jet stream coming into these now there is still a Possibility that that dip in the jet streams farther west and if that's the case then Aaron could be drawn in closer But it appears to us right now It is not a hundred percent but likely that that dip in the jet stream is along the east coast Turns Aaron out to sea but the question is is we go back we go back to this John, right? We go back we go right back to this. Is it on the southern track or on the northern track? That's why right now this seems to be the critical move. Yeah, this is the big the critical move and look at that point That's around Sunday afternoon and that's when we would want to start to see that storm taking its turn to the north as Mentioned that looks likely and when that happens that would give us confidence that there'll be lower risk of direct impacts For example in Florida. I made this graphic this morning. We all came together on it. Okay, given the History which says 85% of the storms where Aaron is located now during the month of August and September Do not bring direct impacts for the u.s. And given what we're looking at now with the pattern We came up with about 70% chance that there's no direct impacts or rain and wind Along the east coast from Aaron correct and that is is why we're Highlighting this so that people can can relate to this and understand that there's most likely not going to be direct impacts But still that means a 30% chance that there can be rain and wind impacts somewhere along the coast This is an Accuweather exclusive John. Let's go over this graphic. This is important, right? And you'll find this only here at Accuweather We're highlighting a moderate risk of of impacts along the North Carolina coastline a low risk Along the rest of these coast notes that it does include, Florida We haven't all cleared anywhere except from Tallahassee westbound across the Florida Peninsula But the greatest risks for direct impacts would be along the North Carolina coast All right, and again if we see that turn to the north Sunday this map will change Dramatically with lots of all clears. Yep Accuweather chief meteorologist John Porter John. Thanks for breaking it down here

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