AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok shares the early fall forecast from recent drought conditions to which regions that can expect vibrant fall foliage in the new season.

AccuWeather's early fall forecast notes that recent cool and dry conditions in late summer have stressed trees in the Northeast and Midwest, resulting in earlier-than-usual color changes and a mix of green, orange, and yellow leaves. The drought has caused some trees to shed leaves prematurely, and while rain has returned to some areas, it may be too late to significantly improve foliage vibrancy.

The forecast also highlights the potential for early snowfall in higher elevations of the Cascades, Colorado, and the Upper Midwest, with more typical snow timing expected in the Northwest and Northeast. Additionally, fall is identified as a secondary peak for severe weather, with recent tornado outbreaks and the risk of further severe storms, including isolated tornadoes, particularly in the central and eastern United States as cold fronts move through warm regions.

Early fall forecast for 2025

Leading into the start of the fall season, the fall foliage forecast all can be seen on accurate.com. The beautiful fall background, which I was doing and I at right now, and you can see the leaves changing behind me. But Paul, for some of us in the Northeast, we're like, isn't this a little early? It is, and if you looked at that image carefully, you had kind of a mix of green and orange and yellows, not and I'm talking about individual trees, so they're not completely turning that quickly and that's going to extend the season to the end of next year. It's going to extend the season probably longer. It's going to take time for the trees to completely go through its full process. What's been early is that cool that we had in late August, early September, and the dryness that occurred in August as well has put a lot of stress on the trees. You can see the drought monitor on your screen right now. Lots of drought abnormally dried to moderate drought conditions all the way from the Tennessee Valley. Up through the Northeast and some of those sensitive trees have shut down the process of the water and sugars getting back into the leaves. This little layer called the abscission layer has formed early on and some of those leaves are either falling. Or we're starting to see the colors earlier than we've seen over the past couple of years. So people who maybe have been watching the forecast this morning, Paul, like, well, we're getting some rain back into the Midwest and Northeast. Is is that going to make a difference? You phrased it kind of funny to me earlier. Yeah, it's a little bit late. I mean, it's a little bit late. We could have used that rain in August, kept the trees less stressful, but now it looks like we're going to see kind of a mix of colors. More dollar, not maybe those bright reds unless the sunlight and the cool nights that go forward help out. Sunlight during September, dry conditions and also cool nights brings out those purples and reds. But are the trees already too far past now? Is it too stressed? And I think you're going to see a lot of those colors, those yellows and more oranges in parts of the Appalachians in the Mid-Atlantic states, but still vibrant. But maybe not lasting too long in parts of the Northeast. Some people like their snow and fall. I prefer mine in winter, but for those snow lovers, those who want to go skiing, snowboarding, or just even see some flakes falling at their house, who could see some of the first possible snow this season? I just can't believe we're talking about this already. I mean, it's amazing. I mean, we did have that cool spot in the early part of September in the east, but I think things are going to stay mild for a little while. But another change might be coming on as we get into the beginning of October. Some of these cold fronts are going to have a little more robustness with them and some cold air on the back side of it. The source regions in Alaskan Canada are not very cold yet, but I think they will. And you'll see the Cascades get a little bit of snow. Higher elevations of probably Colorado a little early and also the upper Midwest and Northern Plains. That's another area that we're focusing on for mid to late October. That could start to see some snow. You can see some of the timelines that we have set up. Chicago probably waits till about early mid November. A little earlier than average in parts of the Midwest and the Northern Plains. Probably more typical when you look at the northwest in the Northeast. Alright, that's kind of the fun part of fall, but fall is also also the secondary peak of severe weather season. And as you mentioned, we've already seen some tornadoes so far this fall season. Yeah, we saw a big outbreak already in the Dakotas down towards Nebraska earlier on in this month, and I still feel that we have more. You guys just talked about that we have the possibility of severe weather coming in the short term. There's going to be more of that. There's going to be more cold fronts, more contrast. Remember, the Gulf is really warm right now. You have that contrast setting up and you also have some of those cold shots that could come down in mid late October. That's going to set up right in the middle of the country that we have here. From Memphis, Kansas City, Cincinnati, even Chicago could get into the act. Even the possibility of some isolated tornadoes in October and then shifting a little farther South and East in November. Accurately long range expert Paul Pastak. We thank you always for joining us and sharing your expertise. No problem.

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