Name: Could Trump’s plans for Venezuela’s oil industry threaten Canada?
Uploaded: 2026-01-05T04:34:29.815Z
Duration: 3 min 17 s
Description: Experts say a new government would need to be installed in Venezuela for oil to start flowing at the level it once did and that Canada could avoid the threat of competition by pursuing new pipelines to carry Canadian oil to the coasts and not the U.S.

Experts say a new government would need to be installed in Venezuela for oil to start flowing at the level it once did and that Canada could avoid the threat of competition by pursuing new pipelines to carry Canadian oil to the coasts and not the U.S.

Ottawa

The U.S has launched strikes on sites inside Venezuela, including military facilities and arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro along wife his wife.

Venezuela Strikes

Canada's oil industry has benefited for decades from the decline of Venezuela's oil sector, as skilled Venezuelan workers relocated to Canada and Venezuelan output dropped by about 70 percent. However, if U.S. policies under Donald Trump enable a revival of Venezuela's oil industry, experts warn that Canada could face increased competition, especially given Venezuela’s proximity to Gulf Coast refineries.

A significant recovery in Venezuelan oil production would require over $100 billion in investment, regime change, and the return of exiled engineers. While such developments could eventually challenge Canadian oil exports, analysts note that both the threat from Venezuela and Canada's efforts to diversify its export routes are likely years away from becoming reality.

Could Trump’s plans for Venezuela’s oil industry threaten Canada?

For decades now, Canada's oil patch has prospered from the decline of Venezuela's industry. Now that same industry could pose a new competitive threat. We went to Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Canada. Lino Carrillo was one of hundreds of highly trained workers who ended up in Alberta where he ran a refinery. The bitumen from Alberta is identical to the bitumen in the Oronoco tarbet. Identical. Back in 2003, socialist president Hugo Chavez fired half of the workforce at the state oil company and sparked an exodus of those seasoned workers. Since then, Venezuelan engineers have watched from Canada as Venezuela's oil output has crashed by about 70 percent. The oil companies are going to go in, they're going to spend money, we're going to take back the oil that, frankly, we should have taken back a long time ago. U.S. President Donald Trump has talked about Venezuela as a potential oil powerhouse. The estimate is that for Venezuela to produce, you know, four million barrels in a decade, it will require north of $100 billion. And of course, for that to happen, it would require mostly private investment. Private companies would need not just to see regime change, but they would need to see a new government installed in Venezuela and then a track record of that government, you know, behaving well, following contracts. Venezuela would also need to turn to its exiled engineers. That diaspora would have to be tapped if the oil industry will ever recover back in Venezuela, because in the country, very few remain. I will come back and help two, three years, and that's what we're looking for with the diaspora. Engineer Jorge Robles has never lost touch with his Venezuelan roots and says he'd go back too, but the conditions have to be right. I think that has to be a demonstration that human rights and law are going to be respected, and that's for sure. While he welcomes the capture of Maduro, he says he was disappointed that the U.S. didn't recognize the opposition as the legitimate government of Venezuela. Venezuela in the new era of a democratic government is going to be open for business, but it's not open for sale. So we are an independent, sovereign country. We want to get back to be that. If Venezuela's oil were to start flowing again at the level it once did, it could pose a problem for Canada, especially given its ease of access to Gulf Coast refineries. You'll just pull a tanker up, unload, and then you're kind of competing directly with Canadian barrels. It would be harder, though, to get that Venezuelan oil to the U.S. Midwest, which is where most Canadian oil is refined. And Evan, what would the effect be of another four million barrels of heavy crude entering the market? Now, that could have a major effect on Canada, but it's also something that's years from happening even under the most optimistic scenario in Venezuela. The country is still controlled by the Maduro regime, just minus Nicolás Maduro himself. As for the eventual competition from Venezuela, experts say Canada is already pursuing the solution, new pipelines to carry Canadian oil to the coasts instead of the U.S. That solution, of course, will take years, but fortunately the threat of Venezuelan competition is also years away. And dire in Ottawa.

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Could Trump’s plans for Venezuela’s oil industry threaten Canada?

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