CNBC’s Steve Liesman joins 'Squawk Box' with the latest news. It's set to be a big week for the economy with a Fed meeting, tariff deadline, and jobs report coming up.

Washington

This week is significant for the US economy, with several key events scheduled. The Federal Reserve is set to meet, and there is anticipation about possible dissents among its governors, which would be unusual. Economic indicators such as the JOLT survey, consumer confidence, ADP employment numbers, GDP data, and the Fed's preferred inflation measure will be released. The unemployment report and non-farm payrolls are also expected, with markets watching for signs of resilience or weakness in the labor market.

Additionally, the resolution of tariff uncertainties and their potential impact on inflation and growth are being monitored. While the stock market appears unconcerned by these developments, some economists note a disconnect between market optimism and broader economic outlooks. The bond market, in contrast, has remained stable.

Consequential week for the economy

A consequential week for the economy. A Fed meeting tariff deadline jobs report. It's the busiest week for earnings this quarter. Steve Leesman is with us. He's just gets excited on these Fed weeks. I can see it on his face like a Grateful Dead concert. Yeah it's exactly the same Joe. And there's drums in space and all kinds of wonderful things. Look it is a very big week. We have the Jolt survey and consumer confidence and of course the Fed survey comes out tomorrow. I know you're on the edge of your seat about that. Wednesday though we have the ADP number. That's seeing kind of on the low side. Remember last month we were above expectations but a lot of that was was on the government side. Just eighty two thousand expected on ADP. And then you also have GDP and a lot of interest in that. I don't want to get too wonky on this but basically a lot of imports came into the country but we didn't count them in inventory. So there could be some adjustments on either side at least not as much as came in. And then you go to Thursday. You have the Fed's preferred inflation indicator and then the big what we call the big kahuna Joe. Is that what we call it. On Friday we have the unemployment report and non-farm payrolls just one hundred and two thousand expected. But again that's been surprising to the upside. So we'll see how resilient it all is. And I don't want to leave out of course the Fed meeting and the Fed announcement on Wednesday to potential dissents there from Waller and Bowman. And that's not happened for a very long time. We've had two governors dissent. Those are the ones who are in Washington down the hall. Their offices are down the hall from Powell. But apparently most economists believe they'll dissent. But we'll see what the Fed does in terms of incorporating that notion that the Fed could cut now perhaps into the statement into the outlook for a September cut. Take a quick look at the probabilities. There you go. Fed in play for July. But we also have the probability 66 percent for September. And just looking at I want to do July 2.1 percent is a really very low probability for July. But then two cuts built in for this year. Sixty seven percent for September. Sixty three for December. So I am very excited Joe. It's going to be a great first set. And I will take a break of 30 minutes to come back and do the second set. And maybe who knows what the encore is going to be. Two of them were Trump appointees. Right. I mean Austin has been consistently sort of. I don't know. I would use the word. What's the word I'm looking for. Reasonable about a lot of these at your Denny's laughing up August 1st. They got time. There have been other times where where we would wait till the next week for the unemployment for the employment report. Steve but they're doing it. Joe I think you're like me a little bit. You've been doing some of this stuff for a couple of decades and you still don't get all of it. I'm not really sure why. Sometimes they seem to skip August 1st. I'm sure somebody will write it and explain it to me. Maybe I knew one time and don't get it. But August 1st is also the trade deadline Joe. And I'm super interested in how all this affects the stock market. I can. You can sit back and say well there's three elements to this. One was the idea that we're going to be crazy high tariffs. That's been removed. The second was the uncertainty about what the tariffs will be. That appears to be being removed. The third element is the one that looks to be playing out more over time which is what are the economic impacts of all this. Is it driving up inflation. We've seen it in the tariffs. Will it weaken growth. Growth is expected to be on the weak side. We'll see in our CNBC Fed survey what the new GDP outlook is. But that's the third one. The stock market does not seem to be worried about this. There are some economics economists that are writing about the idea that maybe the stock market is a little bit divorced from the economic outlook. But then again a lot of this seems driven by the outlook and the hope for tech. Yeah. It just it's funny. We're talking about Roger Altman about people use the stock market when it benefits their argument or you know which side of the aisle they're on. They use it when it doesn't. They kind of discounted it. It's kind of funny. Bond market though has been pretty well behaved to Steve.

The suspect in the Michigan Walmart stabbing attack that injured 11 people over the weekend pleaded not guilty Monday to terrorism and assault charges.

Traverse City

Suspect pleads not guilty in Walmart stabbing attack

The U.S. Department of Justice says it took down child abuse websites that had more than 120,000 members and contained millions of files. CBS News' Scott MacFarlane explains how the arrest of one suspect nicknamed "Boss" was a huge priority for the FBI.

U.S. Justice Dept. shuts down four child abuse websites

Five people, including security guards, were killed by a gunman at Bangkok's Or Tor Kor market on Monday. The shooter, who injured two others, later killed himself, according to authorities.

Bangkok

Gunman kills five at busy Bangkok fresh food market

Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to an “unconditional” ceasefire starting at midnight, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on July 28, a significant breakthrough to resolve five days of deadly border clashes.

Kuala Lumpur

Thailand and Cambodia agree to ceasefire

Truckloads of food reached hungry Gazans on July 28 after Israel promised to open secure aid routes, but humanitarian agencies warned vast amounts more were needed to stave off starvation.

Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Food arrives in Gaza after Israel pauses some fighting

Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials will resume talks in Stockholm to try to tackle longstanding economic disputes at the center of a trade war, aiming to extend a truce by three months and keeping high tariffs at bay.

Stockholm

U.S.-China trade truce extension seen, may ease way for Trump-Xi meet

A train derailment in southern Germany killed at least three people and injured others. The cause is under investigation, with weather possibly a factor.

Riedlingen

German train derails, killing at least three people

Israel has agreed to limit fighting in parts of Gaza and would allow more aid into the region, but both moves are facing criticism for being too little too late.

Israel announces daily pauses in Gaza fighting as aid trickles in

Abnormally high temperatures combined with heat and drought have fuelled destructive wildfires in parts of Europe, forcing thousands to be evacuated.

Athens

Heat fuels destructive wildfires in parts of Europe

Michigan officials say they will file terrorism charges and 11 charges of assault with intent to murder against the man who allegedly carried out a knife attack at a Walmart on Saturday. Lana Zak reports.

Garfield Township

Suspect in Michigan stabbing rampage to face terrorism charges

FAA investigators are in Denver after passengers and crew aboard an American Airlines flight were forced to evacuate when a tire blew during takeoff and the plane's rapid deceleration caused a brake fire, the airline said. Elise Preston reports.

Denver

Passengers evacuate burning plane in Denver

President Trump announced Sunday that the U.S. and European Union have come to a trade agreement after high-stakes meetings in Scotland. Weijia Jiang reports.

Edinburgh

Global Tariffs

Trump announces trade agreement with the European Union

Israel says it will now establish secure routes through the war zone in Gaza so aid convoys won't be shot at or looted. Elizabeth Palmer reports.

Tel Aviv-Yafo

Israel says it will establish secure routes for Gaza aid

U.S. President Donald Trump played golf Saturday at his course on Scotland's coast while protesters around the country took to the streets to decry his visit and accuse United Kingdom leaders of pandering to the American president.

Protesters in Scotland take to the streets to decry Trump's visit

Following four days of border clashes which have left over 30 people dead, the two sides have agreed to Malaysia acting as a mediator in the conflict.

Thailand, Cambodia to meet in Malaysia for ceasefire talks

Protesters gathered in front of the U.S. consulate in Edinburgh to oppose President Trump's visit to Scotland. Mr. Trump plans to host the U.K.'s Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the President of the European Union, Ursula von der Leyen, for trade talks at his personal properties.

Demonstrators protest Trump's visit to Scotland

The Israeli military said Saturday that it will resume aid airdrops into Gaza and open humanitarian corridors for United Nations convoys amid increased international pressure and accounts of starvation-related deaths in the territory.

Israel says airdrops of aid into Gaza will begin

Tens of thousands flee as border fighting between Cambodia and Thailand intensifies — with no ceasefire in sight.

Preah Vihear Province

Cambodia calls for ceasefire with Thailand

Typhoon Co-May has moved away from the Philippines but many low-lying areas are still severely flooded. Three storms dumped a months’ worth of rain in a span of a week on nearly the entire country.

Manila

At least 30 killed in Philippines typhoon

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said she will meet US President Donald Trump on Sunday in Scotland to "discuss transatlantic trade relations."

Glasgow

Ursula von der Leyen to meet Donald Trump to discuss trade

President Trump signed an executive order Thursday aimed at dramatically changing how the U.S. approaches homelessness.

Trump signs executive order changing U.S. approach to homelessness

Typhoon Co-May has left a trail of destruction across the Philippines, making landfall in the country's northwestern region. Torrential rains and strong winds have battered towns and cities, damaging homes, roads, and farmland. At least 25 people have been reported dead.

Pangasinan

Philippines hit hard by Typhoon Co-May, dozens killed

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump appeared on Friday to abandon Gaza ceasefire negotiations with Palestinian militant group Hamas, a day after withdrawing their delegations from talks.

Netanyahu, Trump appear to abandon Gaza ceasefire negotiations

U.S. President Donald Trump is spending five days in Scotland visiting his luxury golf resorts. While the White House touts the economic impact, some locals say the developments have scarred the land and stirred controversy.

Trump visits Scotland to tour golf courses amid protests

The U.S. Department of Justice is set to meet with Ghislaine Maxwell, Jeffrey Epstein's convicted accomplice, amid mounting political pressure on President Donald Trump over his administration's handling of the Epstein case.

Ghislaine Maxwell to meet with U.S. Justice Dept. amid Epstein probe

Thailand and Cambodia exchanged heavy artillery fire for a second day on Friday (July 25) as their worst fighting in over a decade intensified and spread to new areas, despite international calls for a ceasefire.

Thailand, Cambodia exchange heavy artillery

France intends to recognise a Palestinian state in September at the UN General Assembly, President Emmanuel Macron said in hopes of bringing peace to the region, but the plan drew angry rebukes from Israel and the United States.

Macron says France will recognize Palestine as a state

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has approved a draft bill to restore the independence of anti-corruption agencies, following nationwide protests and EU concerns over recent reforms that threatened their autonomy.

Ukraine Invasion

Zelensky approves anti-corruption bill after protests

Chinese and European Union leaders have met in Beijing for their first in-person summit since 2023, addressing a range of contentious issues amidst growing trade tensions. The talks, led by Chinese President Xi Jinping and EU officials Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa, highlighted the complex nature of China-EU relations.

Beijing

China-EU summit ends in climate deal, talks strain over Ukraine

The United Kingdom and India have signed a trade agreement that will reduce tariffs on goods from textiles to whisky, cars and spices and allow more market access for businesses. British PM Keir Starmer hailed the agreement as a “landmark moment” for both countries.

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