In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno breaks down two potential winter storms developing from late this weekend into next week. A surge of Arctic air will set the stage for snow and ice across the Midwest, Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

A major injection of cold air is forecast to move into the United States, raising the risk of two storm systems developing over the next two weeks. Weather models indicate the possibility of snow and ice affecting regions from the Midwest to the Northeast and potentially the Mid-Atlantic, though the exact details remain uncertain due to rapidly changing model outputs.

Meteorologists caution against relying on individual model runs, instead emphasizing the consistent pattern of cold air and storm potential. The first storm is likely to impact the Southern Plains and Midwest over the weekend, with a second storm possible early the following week, particularly for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Further updates are expected as forecasts are refined.

Cold air sets stage for two storm threats next week

As we talked about yesterday, quite a pattern upcoming next weekend and then the following week as we have an ardent injection of cold air and I'm telling you, a lot of crazy solutions being shown by our computer models. Now, I've already said this, the computer models I believe are used wrong a lot by meteorologists. We take them literally this far out. What I do is I look at the overall weather pattern. I believe the models are signaling that there's some cold air coming and we're going to have some snow and ice across the Midwest, Northeast, maybe Mid-Atlantic. The exact details aren't there quite yet, but the pattern is showing that we have some major problems coming next weekend and then the following week. I'm putting out a windshield wiper effect warning for the nation beginning next weekend and what in the world am I talking about? Well, what is the windshield wiper effect? It was popularized by Bernie Raynaud, so I'm going to define it. What it's describing is the shifting of model data from model run to model run. What do I mean by that? We have computer models that come out four times a day and they will shift the solutions every single run. For the weather enthusiasts and meteorologists as well, it creates headaches because things can change quickly with this. You want to see an example of a major windshield wiper effect? Let me take you to what happened yesterday. This is for our weekend storm. This was a run of the American model, which by the way does this a lot. This is a run of the American model yesterday afternoon. Watch what happens Saturday and the Sunday here as we go forward. So this is the American model. This is Friday. Look what it's showing. What a snowstorm. Look at the snowstorm from near Kansas City, St. Louis, Indianapolis, all of Central Ohio. There'd be a large area of six to 12 inches. Some spots would get over a foot of snow with this. Ice all the way down to Washington, D.C. Heavy snow or close call in Philadelphia, New York City, Boston. What a snowstorm. That was the run that came out at one o'clock yesterday afternoon. Six hours later. You ready? Where'd it go? It's gone. All gone. The afternoon model run, the evening model run yesterday. Welcome to the windshield wiper effect. Now, I don't get caught up in the windshield wiper effect. I call it because it's the shifting model. What I like to do, I don't go back and forth. I stay right in the middle. The pattern is ripe for, I think, two storms. I tweeted this out on my ex account. I'm at AccuRaino. Two storms. Now, why am I convinced that there's going to be a threat for two storms? Because next week, look at this cold injection. This is Friday. Look at the cold air coming. You're a 32 degree guy. Now, this is going to shift, but to get the idea that you've got a lot of Arctic air coming south late next week, and what's the other rain over we have? When you get an injection of cold air, you have the possibility of the storm, and there are two threats, Saturday over next weekend and early next week. You see, you've got all this cold air. Now, how is it going to translate? I'm not sure yet, but let me show you the upper air for the American European model, and this will shift too. This is next Friday. What are we looking at? Now, this is European model. You've got a polar vortex here. This is sending a lot of cold air southward, and you have this energy that's going to be coming across the north central United States. Now, one of the keys is, what is going to happen? You have an area of high pressure here across the southeast, and this is stronger. This will force the storm over the weekend across the Midwest. The snow's here, and along the east coast, it's a warm up in rain. The European says not really. The upper high is way down here across the Yucatan Peninsula. There is a storm that's going to cut up west of the Appalachians, but it's a close call. See that? There it goes as we get into Sunday, Monday. Look at the energy. The American model, a lot different. It says, well, not really. The energy's not strung out across Canada. Look at the difference. European, American. European, American. See that? Brings the cold air in, not much with it, and it's dry next weekend, and then you could have a storm early next week. But the idea is, you have an injection of cold air coming next weekend. That tells me there's going to be a storm. Let me show you the surface pattern. This is the European. Now, I think this is kind of the right idea. See, you have a storm. There it goes. This one tries to come up west of the Appalachians, so this is a snow and ice for parts of the Southern Plains and the Midwest. The American model kind of shows the same thing. Right in there, you see that? In here, you get some snow and ice. That goes by. Here comes the cold air, right? And then you've got the next storm coming down the pike. That would be early next week. There's the European. The shot, then, comes across the upper Midwest and into the Northeast, maybe the mid-Atlantic early next week. The European shows a storm, but still it shows that the storm's to the west and to the north. Now, we don't know the exact details yet on this, but with the injection of cold air coming, I continue to believe there's going to be two shots of snow. The first shot is going to be this weekend. I am starting to believe that the first storm is going to come out of the Rockies. The question is, I'm not sure of this yet. Does it come across the mid-Atlantic, or does the storm come and cut to the Northeast? I'm not sure yet. So I would tell you next weekend, the threat is from the upper Midwest toward New England. Then, early next week, the early of the following week, as we get into the 25s or 26s, that's where I think you have a better shot of some snow. I think the European has kind of the right idea. The storm goes by, here comes more energy, and then your shot for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic would be somewhere around the 27th, 28th. Model mayhem, windshield wiper warning in effect, but storms are coming next weekend, and then the following week. Stay tuned.

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