China's Xi warns of "peace or war." Who's he speaking to? With China, Russia and North Korea aligned, is it unity or show? Andrea Kendall-Taylor unpacks this "axis of upheaval," their goals, and what they offer that the West cannot.

Political scientist and security analyst Andrea Kendall-Taylor described the growing cooperation between China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran as a significant challenge to U.S. global leadership. She noted that these four countries, whose leaders recently appeared together in a show of unity, have deepened their relationships and accelerated cooperation in recent years, particularly since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Kendall-Taylor explained that this 'axis of upheaval' aims to undermine the United States and the international order it leads, making it harder for Western countries to use tools like sanctions. She also highlighted that this alliance provides an alternative for countries dissatisfied with the current system, though she questioned whether it offers a positive vision for the future.

China, Russia, N Korea, Iran form 'axis of upheaval'

Well, I'm joined now by political scientist and security analyst, Andrea Kendall-Taylor. She's director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. She joins us from Washington, D.C. It's good to have you with us this evening. China's Xi said the world faces a choice between peace or war. Who does he mean? Who's the peace and who's the war? Well, I think it's a signal that is aimed directly at the U.S. president, President Trump. And I think it reflects this idea that China's global ambitions have grown. And more specifically, its ambitions vis-a-vis Taiwan have grown. And so when he talks about there's a choice between peace and war, my best interpretation is that he's communicating with President Trump, giving him the choice as to whether he will stand up and defend Taiwan and choose war. Or rather, President Trump might choose peace and cede that sphere of influence to Xi Jinping, much as President Trump has done for President Putin in Ukraine. So you think that was perhaps the message to Trump to stand back, let us have Taiwan? Well, we certainly don't know exactly what was behind. But you know, there is this concept that with President Trump really intent on winning the Nobel Peace Prize, being the president of peace, bringing peace to all of these conflicts. And so to me, in a way, that statement plays on this recognized desire for President Trump by peace. And we just don't know what President Trump's view is on the Indo-Pacific. And so I think, again, he's testing the president's limits, I think, and raising that question about how the U.S. may respond to Chinese aggression vis-a-vis Taiwan. We saw these images today of the leaders of China, Russia, and North Korea standing side by side. Did we see a true picture of unity today? Well, I think it was a remarkable display of unity, and certainly that was what it was intended to be. I mean, Xi Jinping marched his missiles and his tanks down the streets. And of course, that was intended to demonstrate China's military might. But as your reporting just indicated, I think just as important as the tanks and the missiles were the images of Xi standing shoulder to shoulder with Presidents Putin, Kim Jong-un, and also the Iranian president was also there. And those four leaders, their relationship in recent years has grown. It has deepened. The cooperation has accelerated. And so this certainly was intended as a show of unity and to signal that there is an alternative to U.S. global leadership, and it is represented by those leaders standing there on the podium. And you've referred to these leaders as the Axis of Upheaval. Tell me exactly what you meant by that. Well, the term comes from a piece that I did with a colleague, Richard Fontaine, in Foreign Affairs. And with this term, Axis of Upheaval, we're talking about these four countries, Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, who have grown together and coalesced around their shared desire to undermine the United States and the international order it leads. And it really is remarkable that the cooperation has really taken off in recent years. And the war in Ukraine, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, was really a key catalyst. And so what we see now is that the cooperation among all of these countries is enhancing the military capabilities of each of them, while at the same time diluting the foreign policy tools like sanctions and other things that the United States and its European allies have to confront them. So it's really become quite consequential. Do you think the goal here is to keep the war in Ukraine going indefinitely, to keep Iran a flashpoint geopolitically, and also maybe to free up Taiwan for China, knowing that the United States would be forced perhaps to fight a war on several fronts, which the Pentagon doesn't want to do? I think there's certainly a recognition when they're acting together, when they're cooperating, they have the ability to overstretch U.S. resources, bandwidth, and capabilities. All of these countries understand that they are also less isolated and less vulnerable when they're working together. And so again, that desire to overturn the United States and the rules and the norms that guide the international system becomes a very powerful motivator for all of their actions. She likes to talk about the Global South and likes to see China as the leader of a new world order that would include the Global South. What can China offer to the Global South that the U.S. and Europe aren't or cannot? Yeah, that's a great question. I think for many countries, China and this axis of upheaval represents an alternative to the United States. I mean, I think we do have to recognize that there are many countries that are dissatisfied with the current international system. They don't believe that it delivers for them. So for many of these countries, so for example, Brazil, India, South Africa, the presence of this axis provides an alternative that gives them leverage in their dealings with the United States. It gives them more freedom of action. But I think, you know, to me, the thing that is most dismaying about this present moment is that this axis doesn't provide much of a positive vision of the future. When the United States and its allies, with its economy, its military, democracy, human rights, when we can adopt them and live them at home, we should be well positioned to better compete with this axis of upheaval. But what I worry about is certainly with the current administration in the United States, they seem intent on weakening many of these components and thereby giving a lot of momentum and confidence to this axis of upheaval. Security analyst Andrea Kendall-Taylor, we appreciate your time and your insights tonight. Fascinating discussion. Thank you.

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