New governing board member Stephen Miran, an ally of President Donald Trump, may vote for a 100 basis-point cut. Fed watchers see the potential for dissents over the expected quarter-point cut from both sides of the debate.

Washington

Bank of America analysts believe the Federal Reserve is likely to deliver a 'hawkish cut,' signaling fewer rate cuts than the market expects. The market is currently pricing in more aggressive cuts, but analysts anticipate the Fed will indicate only two cuts this year and two next year, which may appear cautious compared to expectations.

Attention is focused on new Fed official Miran, whose voting stance is uncertain. While a 100 basis point dissent is considered unlikely, analysts do not rule it out entirely. The outcome of the Fed's decision is expected to influence investor strategies, particularly regarding cash holdings and asset allocation, as economic data remains mixed.

BofA wouldn't 'rule out' Miran voting for 100 bps Fed rate cut

We actually think that the Fed will be delivering a hawkish cut today, simply because the market is pricing in almost 70 basis points of rate cuts this year, about 150 basis points for the cycle. And we think the Fed, at most, is going to send a signal that they'll be cutting twice this year and only twice next year. So in relation to where the market is priced, we do think that that's going to come across as somewhat hawkish. Now we don't think that Powell is going to tell the market that it's wrong. But we do think that he's going to provide very limited guidance. He's not going to guide on October. The market's pricing in about 20 basis points of a rate cut at that meeting. And we just think that the market, if they're looking for any justification that this is a Fed that's going to be cutting quickly, won't really get that through the mix of communications today. Now, the market may look through that. It may know that, look, the Fed is not going to tell us that they're cutting in October. And it may be more focused on the dissents, the size of those dissents, and then what the market thinks that means for how the dissenting officials will vote in the future. The Myron dissent is key for the market. He's new. We don't know much about him and how he thinks about monetary policy today. So if it's a 75 basis point dissent or a 100 basis point dissent, the market will be taking some cue from that, we expect. Do you think he would go as far as dissenting for a 100 basis point reduction at this meeting? It is a low probability, but I wouldn't rule it out. Jared, this goes to the question of what people do with that in allocation. Does that mean just keep going into risk assets and sell long bonds, or does this mean everything could be bid up because suddenly we're looking at unconventional policies that will lift all asset prices in the United States? It's a great question, Lisa, because I think the moment of truth is coming for a lot of investors. Think about all the people who've been content, even thrilled, to have spare cash sitting in higher yielding accounts, money market accounts earning 4%, 4.5%. As Mark and our economists and everyone thinks ahead to the future and we forecast a terminal rate next year of 3%, 3.25%, suddenly those higher yielding cash accounts start to look a lot less attractive, especially if inflation remains sticky. You've got a big decision to make at that point. And to your point at the top, Lisa, actually, the tension now isn't just between the soft data and the hard data, which we've been writing about all year, the surveys that are negative and the economic data, which is holding up pretty well. It's now almost a fight between the hard data and the hard data on the labor side and retail sales being strong. So investors have to decide, if the Fed's behind the curve, if the economy is actually getting weaker, then maybe that cash isn't looking attractive, but longer term bonds might be good for a trade. If the economy holds up, if the airline executives and the bank executives and the retail sales data all confirm economy that's really strong, there's lots of places to go in equities that are going to be more attractive than cash. It's hard to overstate. This isn't cash on the sidelines. This is cash on the sidelines in the bleachers up to the press box with almost $20 trillion in cash and cash equivalents today.

On the same day a ground offensive was launched in Gaza City, a United Nations Commission of Inquiry report concluded Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, a finding emphatically denied by Israeli officials.

Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Israel committing genocide in Gaza, UN inquiry finds

Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, said that foreign laboratory tests on biological samples obtained from her husband showed that he was poisoned.

Yulia Navalnaya says foreign tests show her husband was poisoned

Prosecutors formally changed Tyler Robinson, the suspect in the assassination of Charlie Kirk, and said they intend to seek the death penalty. Authorities also revealed exchanges between Robinson and his roommate.

Utah County

Prosecutors formally charge Charlie Kirk shooting suspect

U.S. President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrived at Windsor Castle and were greeted by King Charles III, Queen Camilla, Prince William and Kate, the Prince and Princess of Wales. CBS News' Ed O'Keefe has the latest.

Windsor

Trump greeted by British royal family at Windsor Castle

The eyes of the global financial markets are on the US Federal Reserve. It's expected to be cut later on Wednesday, around a quarter-point. But US President Donald Trump has called repeatedly for much steeper rate cuts.

Global markets watch as Trump challenges Fed independence

The U.S. Secretary of State has visited Qatar a week after Israel attacked a meeting of the Hamas negotiating team in Doha. Marco Rubio met Qatar's Prime Minister and the Emir, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani.

Doha

Marco Rubio visits Doha, holds talks with Emir and PM

Utah County Attorney Jeff Gray provided updates Tuesday on the case against Tyler Robinson, the 22-year-old accused of fatally shooting Charlie Kirk. Robinson is charged with seven counts, including aggravated murder. The state is seeking the death penalty.

Charlie Kirk shooting suspect charged with murder

A judge has dismissed two state terrorism-related charges against Luigi Mangione, the 27-year-old accused of killing UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson last December. CBS News' Anna Schecter has more details.

New York

Luigi Mangione's state terrorism charges dismissed in CEO killing

Israel said it has launched its ground offensive in Gaza City. It comes as a United Nations inquiry finds that Israel's nearly two-year war on Gaza is a genocide. Israeli leaders have denounced the report as "distorted and false."

Israel launches main phase of ground offensive in Gaza City

U.S. President Donald Trump becomes the first U.S. president to receive a second state visit as Britain faces protests over immigration and growing support for the pro-Trump Reform Party. CBS News correspondent Ed O'Keefe reports from London.

London

Trump begins state visit to London amid rising political tensions

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Monday (Sept. 15) the U.S. military carried out a second strike against an alleged Venezuelan drug boat. CBS News' Charlie D'Agata has the latest.

Caracas

Trump announces second U.S. strike on alleged Venezuelan drug boat

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened investigations into the ‘radical left,’ following the shooting death of Charlie Kirk. Vice-President J.D. Vance on Kirk’s podcast encouraged people to turn in those who celebrated the conservative commentator’s killing.

Charlie Kirk’s killing prompts broad threats from Trump administration

The United States and China reached a framework agreement to switch short-video app TikTok to U.S.-controlled ownership, U.S. officials said.

Washington County

U.S., China reach framework deal on TikTok

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met in Jerusalem with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as close U.S. ally Qatar gathered other Arab nations' leaders for a summit to issue unified condemnation of last week's Israeli airstrike targeting Hamas leaders in the Qatari capital.

What to know about Rubio's trip to Israel, Qatar summit

President Trump announced the U.S. military has carried out a second strike on alleged Venezuelan "narcoterrorists" in international waters. Three men were killed.

Trump announces second strike on alleged drug boat from Venezuela

Arab and Islamic leaders are gathering in Qatar for an emergency summit following an Israeli attack on Hamas leaders in Doha. The meeting aims to show unity and increase pressure on Israel.

Arab, Islamic leaders meet in Qatar after Israeli attack on Hamas

HBO's medical drama, "The Pitt" beat out heavily-favored Apple TV's "Severance" for outstanding drama series at the Emmy Awards. Meanwhile, Apple TV's "The Studio" walked away with 13 awards and broke the Emmy record for the most wins by a comedy in a single season.

Los Angeles

"The Pitt," "The Studio," and "Adolescence" win big at Emmy Awards

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Israel on Sunday to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials amid the nation's recent strike in Doha, Qatar, and intensified attacks in Northern Gaza.

Israel hosts U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio

Over the weekend, tens of thousands of people marched through London in a rally billed as in support of free speech. Many of the chants and speeches at the rally, which was organized by a far-right activist, were protesting against immigration.

Thousands in London march in rally organized by far-right activist

U.S. and Chinese officials concluded a first day of talks in Madrid on their strained trade ties, a looming divestiture deadline for Chinese short-video app TikTok, amid Washington's demands that its allies place tariffs on imports from China over its purchases of Russian oil.

Madrid

Global Tariffs

U.S., China begin trade talks in Spain as TikTok deadline looms

Police are searching for a motive in Wednesday's killing of conservative activist and influencer Charlie Kirk. Authorities say interviews with family and friends of the 22-year-old suspect suggest he could have been radicalized in the dark corners of the internet.

Orem

Charlie Kirk shooting suspect 'not cooperating' with authorities

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said ahead of the trip that he will be seeking answers from Israeli officials about how they see the way forward in Gaza. Rubio's trip comes after Israel's attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar that upended efforts to broker an end to the conflict.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Israel for talks

Five U.S. F-35 fighter jets landed in Puerto Rico amid escalating tensions with Venezuela. Separately, Caracas said 18 armed U.S. Navy personnel raided a tuna boat sailing in Venezuelan waters.

San Juan

U.S. sends jets to Puerto Rico amid escalating tensions with Venezuela

U.S. President Donald Trump said he believes the Russia-Ukraine war would end if all NATO countries stopped buying oil from Russia and placed tariffs on China of 50 percent to 100 percent for its purchases of Russian petroleum.

Trump calls on NATO members to stop purchasing Russian oil

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Israel on Sunday, as Israel intensified its attacks against northern Gaza. The trip is taking place after President Donald Trump rebuked Israel over the unprecedented attack against Hamas leaders meeting in Doha.

Tel Aviv-Yafo

Marco Rubio visits Israel to push for Gaza ceasefire talks

NATO announced plans to beef up the defense of Europe's eastern flank on Friday, two days after Poland shot down drones that had violated its airspace in the first known action of its kind by a member of the Western alliance during Russia's war in Ukraine.

Warsaw

Ukraine Invasion

NATO bolsters its eastern flank after Russian drones hit Poland

Protests broke out in Chicago on Saturday against President Trump's immigration crackdown. A group of Catholic clergy led what they called a "People's Mass" outside the Great Lakes Naval Base. The base will also be used by Immigration and Customs Enforcement as a staging area for deportations.

Chicago

Tensions over immigration escalate in Chicago

More than 100,000 people took to the streets in London on Saturday, in what's believed to be the largest anti-immigration protest in British history. Organizers called it a "Unite the Kingdom" rally.

Huge crowds march for right-wing "Unite the Kingdom" rally in London

President Trump signaled a new position on Russia's war with Ukraine. He said the U.S. will agree to additional sanctions on Moscow, but only when NATO allies stop buying Russian oil. Willie James Inman has more details.

Trump says NATO must stop buying Russian oil

Tyler Robinson, the 22-year-old suspect in the murder of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, is being held in Spanish Fork, Utah. Officials have yet to identify a precise motive for Wednesday's shooting. Carter Evans has new developments.

Breakdown