Bernie Rayno discusses the dry air and wind shear in the tropical Atlantic this week and when to expect the next tropical storm.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has produced six named storms to date, with the seventh typically expected by early September. However, meteorologist Bernie Rayno notes that the season is slightly behind the usual pace, with only one hurricane, Aaron, having formed so far. 

Current atmospheric conditions, including significant dry air and wind shear across the Atlantic Basin, are inhibiting the development of new tropical systems. While there are several tropical waves present, they are not expected to develop in the near term. This could mark the second consecutive year without a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin during the Labor Day period, a situation last seen in 1991 and 1992.

Bernie Rayno breaks down the Atlantic Hurricane Season so far

Six named storms so far in the 2025 Atlantic season here. Third down, which is still out in the Atlantic, moving away. Seventh named storm, when do we typically get it? Well, we typically see that seventh named storm September 3rd. I think it may wait a little later than that for this season here. Second hurricane, we've only had one Aaron. We see August 26, so we're a little behind on the calendar there. Second major hurricane, we've already had the first Aaron. Typically not until September 19. Pretty quiet across the Atlantic Basin. Again, we still do have burn down well off to the north in the Atlantic. Three tropical waves. You can see them in the Atlantic Basin right now, but they really are not going to develop here over the next couple of days. The reason being, there's just too much drier in the tropical Atlantic here. Let me show you the water vapor loop. And you can see all of the dry air here across the Atlantic Basin right now. There it is. Again, dry air and wind shear. When you have dry air and wind shear, you're not going to get development of tropical systems. There's all the dry air denoted by the yellow shading. There's pockets of moisture. But where you have the pockets of moisture, you have what? Wind shear denoted by the purple. Look at a lot of wind shear, especially in the Caribbean. So even if anything can make it out through that dry air in the Atlantic and get into the Caribbean when there's less dry air, there's still quite a bit of wind shear here. So at this point, it seems unlikely we're going to get any development in the tropical Atlantic. The one area to watch is here. As we head in the latter half of August into September, maybe as we get to early next week, we can get a tropical depression or storm. But I'll tell you what. This will be the second Labor Day we're projecting of not having a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin. The last time that happened for two consecutive years, 1991 and 1992.

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