September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network to discuss the latest on the hurricane season.

The Atlantic hurricane season has reached its statistical peak, a period that typically sees heightened storm activity. However, this year the Atlantic Basin remains unusually quiet, with no named storms observed at the peak—a rare occurrence since 1950. Meteorologists attribute the lack of tropical development to significant dry air moving from Africa and areas of wind shear, which have created hostile conditions for storm formation.

Despite the current lull, experts note that ocean heat content in the Atlantic is at a record high, surpassing previous years. This raises concerns that if dry air and wind shear decrease in the coming weeks, the warm waters could support rapid storm intensification, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters are closely monitoring the situation, especially as the second half of the season approaches.

Atlantic hurricane season reaches its peak

Today is the climatological peak of hurricane season. Take a look at the graph here and you can see the numbers back up that statement as when you're looking at the number of storms that have occurred from May 15th to December 8th between the years of 1944 and 2020. That's a large data set there. You can see it peaks when? Today. Now after today, numbers start to come down, number of storms come down, but again this is an average September and October very busy in the hurricane season. Joining us right now is Accuweather lead hurricane expert Alex Silva and you know Alex, I mean usually late August first week or two in September is always a very very hectic time in the Atlantic Basin but not this year. No not this year at all and in fact some years we even have multiple tropical systems out there going on at the same time during this time of the year but right now nothing the Atlantic Basin is completely quiet right now choked out by a lot of dry air coming across from Africa and in fact if we look at the statistical peak of the hurricane season which is today September 10th only eight years if we go back since 1950 have there been no named storms in the Atlantic Basin on the statistical peak of the hurricane season and sometimes we go we go decades decades with what's happening today not happening all right you know me you and Brett Anderson were talking about this yesterday the why what's going on here well first of all here's today there's really nothing that we're concerned about that's why we we're very confident that there will be no named storms today a couple of tropical waves Alex but you know let's start off with the dry air and to me this is quite a bit of dry air for this time of the year yeah it certainly is usually the dry air is really around in June and July and then usually when we get into especially late August into September uh it really starts to uh starts to wane here but you can see how much dry air this there is all this yellow and orange color coming across the Atlantic Basin um it's just extremely hostile right now and then in the northern side of this image here a lot of wind shear up in that area and you know we were talking about this yesterday in my mind there was a lot of wind shear but when you look at actually the wind shear product there's some wind shear but you know there's that pocket uh south of 15 degrees north in you know east of the islands where and even in the parts of the Caribbean there's no wind shear but when I go back you can see the light purple no wind shear but where you have low wind shear you have the dry air yeah exactly you need several ingredients for tropical development right you need the warm ocean temperatures you need low wind shear and you need a moist environment and so if you have one or two of those ingredients but the other one is is acting as a detriment then you probably won't have tropical development so like you said in the areas that we have lower wind shear we have the dry air and that's what's really holding things back right now all right two areas we're going to keep an eye on Alex over the next week yeah one area off the east coast I don't think this one's going to develop it's just too hot it's just too um you know and it's in an area of hostile winds basically there's winds from the southwest coming to the northeast and it's just going to rip anything apart I think that tries to form they're still out looking it but the chance is very very low the other area we're watching is off of Africa here we're going to be watching that African wave train going with all those tropical waves here coming off off Africa over the next couple of weeks we're going to have to keep an eye out for this one but again if the dry air does not go away this wave will likely be choked out so we're going to have to watch and see I do think some of this dry air though will begin to decrease as we go to the second half of the month and the problem is if things start to decrease with the wind shear and the dry air you can see that we have a problem in the Atlantic basin indeed we do we have all this warm water everywhere in orange and yellow indicates water temperatures that are above average for this time of the year in the area that we're most concerned with is in the gulf water temperatures are near 90 degrees in some areas you usually look for about 80 so we're talking about 10 degrees above what is usually necessary for tropical development and it's not only about what's at the surface it it's what lies beneath as well ocean heat content as of yesterday September 9th we now have the highest ocean heat content on record ever in the Atlantic basin in recorded history we have officially surpassed 2024 numbers and we all remember what happened during the second half of last season we had Helene and Milton rapidly intensifying the gulf so that is my concern as we go forward here if we see anything able to make it into the gulf if there's low wind shear we're likely going to see rapid intensification that's an area we're going to start to look at we think during the second half of September here it still looks like there's a lot of dry air in the in the tropical Atlantic but boy if you can get a wave to get through the dry air get through the wind shear or you get a dip in the jet stream a front gets down into the southern gulf or caribbean that would be a problem it would indeed if we can get that front coming far enough south we can get some development off of there or maybe it can even activate the gyre you can still get systems to form off the gyre and in fact Helene actually was a storm that formed off of a gyre so we talk about homegrown development on the bookends of the hurricane season but you can still have some in the middle of the hurricane season and we're going to have to watch this very carefully we don't have specific dates on this area yet but we're targeting the second half of the month as this area to watch Accuweather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva thanks for joining us here on Accuweather Early

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