A new study using artificial intelligence to analyze satellite imagery has reduced the estimated number of wildebeest in Africa's Great Migration to under 600,000, about half the longstanding figure of 1.3 million derived from aerial surveys.

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A recent study led by researchers from the University of Oxford, in collaboration with Princeton and other institutions, has used artificial intelligence to reassess the wildebeest population in Africa's Great Migration. By analyzing satellite imagery from Tanzania's Serengeti National Park and Kenya's Maasai Mara National Reserve, the AI models estimated the population to be under 600,000—about half of the long-standing figure of 1.3 million from aerial surveys.

The research team trained two deep learning models on over 70,000 annotated images to improve accuracy over traditional survey techniques, which can be affected by uneven herd distribution and misidentification with similar species. The findings do not indicate a sudden population collapse, but rather suggest previous counts may have been overestimated. The open-source technique could be applied to other species, aiding global conservation efforts.

AI count slashes wildebeest population in Great Migration by half

1.3 million. That's how many wildebeest aerial surveys estimate are marching through Africa's Great Migration. But a new study using artificial intelligence has challenged that long-standing figure, reducing the population to under 600,000. So where are the wildebeest? Researchers from the University of Oxford, in collaboration with Princeton and other institutions, trained two deep learning models to analyze satellite imagery taken from Tanzania's Serengeti National Park and Kenya's Maasai Mara National Reserve. The data, captured in 2022 and 2023, halved traditional estimates. So we were quite surprised at our findings. That's Isla Duporge, the study's lead researcher. We don't think that there's been a population collapse necessarily because we would find carcasses scattered across the landscape, which is not the case. But perhaps the number has dropped naturally, as well as there being some discrepancy in the previous counts. The models were trained on over 70,000 human-annotated images. Traditional aerial counts rely on sampling narrow flight paths and extrapolating across vast areas, which can lead to inaccuracies due to uneven herd distribution. Satellite surveys may confuse wildebeest with similar-sized species such as zebras. Duporge said it also emits huge amounts of data, making it tedious to manually count. We can use the power of deep learning. And so in this study, we use two models. We use a pixel-based model and an object-based model to count the wildebeest in the satellite imagery. Accurate counts are key for managing predators like lions and hyenas that depend on the herds. In the future, Duporge hopes the team will be able to analyze imagery on a daily basis to track migration in real time. The technique has been released as open source and could extend to other species like zebras and rhinos, offering a safer, scalable tool for global conservation monitoring.

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AI count slashes wildebeest population in Great Migration by half

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