Name: Winterlike weather is arriving in the Northeast and Upper Midwest
Uploaded: 2025-11-06T05:02:53.367Z
Duration: 6 min 21 s
Description: High-elevation snow and cold rain is coming in three different bursts over the coming days.

High-elevation snow and cold rain is coming in three different bursts over the coming days.

Green Bay

Colder air and snow showers are forecast to impact parts of the Northeast and Upper Midwest, with the most significant accumulations expected in higher elevations. Weather models show near-record cold in some areas, with Mount Washington and parts of northern New Hampshire and central Maine potentially receiving several inches of snow, while lower elevations will mostly see rain or minimal snow.

A major shift in the weather pattern is expected early next week as a deep trough brings Arctic air and strong winds across the Midwest, resulting in December-like conditions. Snow is likely to move from the Northern Plains into the Northeast, with southern Michigan and interior Northeast regions forecast to receive measurable snow, especially in elevated areas away from the immediate lakefront.

Winterlike weather is arriving in the Northeast and Upper Midwest

With the forecast feed tonight, we're going to sniff out some snowflakes and some colder air. Not everybody's going to see this in the central or northeastern U.S., but we are going to be dealing with some widespread areas of some cold air, near record cold for some, and also some snow showers in some areas. Let's take a look at what's going on in the short term. Just a quick glance at the current storm system kicking through. Wind is the main driver with the problems that we're facing tonight. There will be a little bit of some light snow that breaks out here for some areas. We're seeing a little snow mixed in in the highest of elevations now, but as snow levels drop and temperatures drop a little bit, we're going to get colder. We'll see a changeover to some snow in more and more of the higher elevations. So before we look ahead, let's take a look at some computer models here. And you can see the GFS. There's our disturbance aloft. We're looking at what's going on about 20,000 feet up into the sky, the 500 millibar map. But this is the main driver, the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. And you'll notice this trough. It's a pretty potent one, but it's not very high amplitude. It's a low amplitude. But I'm saying that there's a waviness in the jet stream, but it's not digging all the way down into Georgia. It's mainly even with maybe Delaware or Virginia. And so with that, it's a good push of colder air, but it's only impacting a certain portion of the Northeast. If we follow the wind stream lines, for example, you can see it's coming from the Northwest, so it's certainly colder wind. But once if you're in Raleigh, North Carolina, what's moving into your area? Well, the trough is so shallow that the air you're getting, at least upstairs, has a source region of Colorado or Kansas. So again, it's kind of a low amplitude situation. And because of that, there's a little bit of rain and some snow. I don't want you to be deceived by this particular map here, just so you can see how this is displaying things. There's a six-hour window in which precipitation is categorized and it accumulates. And then the end of time of that, the final hour of those six, the temperature threshold is kind of applied as if it's all snow. It's not all going to be snow. Most of that's rain. Probably a better approximation of what actually is happening here is with the way the European model is parameterized here. You can see we're dealing with, again, a little snow up in the high ground, but rain for the lower elevations. And again, that's why we're keeping our expectations very low. There will be one to three inches of snow in the fall, though, up into the higher elevations of the Northeast here. In fact, you can see the GFS model, it produces 5.2 inches of snow at the top of Mount Washington, 6,288 feet, way, way up there. And you can see the NAM, another model, just hinting at some light snow up in the high ground. And you can see the European model with two, three inches of snow up in the high ground of northern New Hampshire. But again, Cathoden up there in central Maine might see three or four inches of snow. But the lower elevations, Bangor, this hints at an inch plus there in Bangor, Maine, perhaps into Thursday. I think the best forecast for Bangor, Maine, coding to less than an inch. So that's the short term. Let's take you a little farther down the line. We're going to be dealing with a big change. Another front cuts through on Friday to Saturday. This one, kind of a modest one. It's a little bit, a little bit more of a pesky wind shift, but we're not going to see a whole lot of big change that follows that one. And really when it comes to the amount of precipitation with it, there's not much rain or snow left over behind the front. So most of the precipitation may precede the true frontal passage with this one. And it's mainly a quick shot of rain. We're not even going to see much snow in the high ground farther north with Friday night's front. This one's kind of a fickle, a shorter one. Maybe not fickle, but it's a, it's not going to be as impactful as tonight's will be. Then we have some cool air in place, but look at what comes down the pike. We're going to take you back to the upper level map and look at this big, big, big dip in the jet stream here, a very high amplitude trough that digs all the way down to the Gulf coast. This is a game changer here. This is Monday when we're going to have a strong upper level low parked over parts of Eastern Canada. And we're going to have some really strong winds blowing across the Midwest that will have origins all the way up into central Canada. And really, if you follow the streamlines far enough up, this is air that's coming from the Arctic and that is a very deep trough. It's not just the GFS hitting at that. In fact, the European screams a similar message, deep, deep trough all the way down to the Gulf. And that's why we have a forecast map that looks a lot like this here for early next week. December, like December, like weather, there will be snow potential in that second and final weekend front early next week. Here, there's going to be a stripe Saturday, Sunday and into Monday, where we go from the Northern Plains Saturday to Monday in the Northeast, rain changing to snow or in some spots, even just straight up some snow. And then specifically Sunday, Sunday night portion of that. That's when the interior Northeast gets into it. And then we set the table for some lake effect snow. I spent about three and a half years in Erie, PA and these early season events, the lake is so warm that we're probably not going to see much snow accumulate on the immediate lakefront. But if you head inland, head a little farther south, that's where you got a good shot at seeing some accumulations. And in Erie, PA, for example, you gain a hundred feet in elevation every mile you travel inland. So you go from first street or from the Bayfront to maybe the 32nd Street in Erie, you gain about 100, 150 feet. You get all the way down to Summit Township in Northwest Pennsylvania near I-90 in Northwest Pennsylvania. And there, you are several hundred feet above the lake level, maybe five, 600 feet above the lake level. So a quick glance at how this may play out. There is that stripe, a little stripe of snow in Iowa into Michigan and within the anatomy of this storm system, this is a good spot to be here, Southern Michigan. If you're looking for accumulating snow and you're not in the mountains, you got a shot there in Southern Michigan on Monday of maybe an inch or two or three. Here's the European. Look at this. The European lights this area up with a little bit of snow out there. Maybe some isolated spots could see three or more inches of snow in Southern Michigan.

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