In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at the latest on the tropics.

As the Atlantic hurricane season approaches its conclusion, meteorologists note that November is historically a quiet month for storm activity, typically producing only one storm on average. Current atmospheric conditions, including high wind shear and significant dry air, are making it unlikely for new storms to develop, especially after mid-November.

While there is a brief period of lower wind shear in the southwestern Caribbean, the window for tropical development is expected to close quickly as wind shear increases again. The overall outlook suggests that the Atlantic will remain largely inactive, with only minimal chances for additional storms before the season ends.

Will there be another storm in the Atlantic?

And of course, we are getting toward the tail end of the hurricane season. November, historically, not a big month for storms. We typically average about one storm. I'm really starting to doubt we're going to see anything during the month of November. Can't rule it out, but certainly, even the next couple of weeks, you know, in the mid-November, boy, there's a lot of wind shear in the Atlantic Basin. I'll show you that here in a second. And once you get past mid-November, it gets even harder to get a storm to develop here. All right, take a look at the hurricane season as a whole. I mean, we really ramp up as we get in the mid-August through September. October, you see a couple of bumps here. You see that? Right in here, mid to late October, and of course, we have Melissa in this window. As you go through November, notice mid-November, little bump here, but then after that, it goes down very fast. So history says, if you're going to get anything in November, it's early to middle part of the month. After that, the odds really start to go down here, and there's a reason for that. Even on the satellite picture right now, take a look at the tropical Atlantic. There's not much. And you know what? You have a frontal boundary here, which means you have westerly wind, so anything coming off Africa is going to get shredded, but look how clean it is here. From Hispaniola all the way back in toward the tropical Atlantic. Now, this is an area historically you look for. I'll show you why you have those showers and thunderstorms right now. But what's going on, a couple of things in the Atlantic as I take a look at this. Look at the wind shear right now across the Atlantic. Let me go full screen here for one second. You'll notice, I mean, look at the wind shear in the tropical Atlantic here. There are pockets of lower wind shear. You see that in this area? Look at the pockets of lower wind shear in here. So one wonders, well, what's going on? So shear here, shear here in the Caribbean, much of the Caribbean except the Southwest Caribbean here. So notice this, you've got low wind shear in here. Okay, but look at the drier air. Look at that. So where we have the low wind shear, you've got just a tremendous amount of dry air right now. So that's why right now it is very clean in the Atlantic and it's really going to stay that way. Now I want you to notice the difference as we go from October to November. Look how things change here. So this is historically where we could see development in October. Now early October, you see a lot of storms still, the whole East Coast is open. Once you get into late October, you start looking into the Gulf and you start looking into the Caribbean, all right? But you know, it does change a little bit by the end of the month. Look at the difference then as we go from October to November. You lose, you notice what happens? You lose the entire tropical Atlantic, it's gone. The African wave train is over because of wind shear and dry air. You can get upper lows to form in this area and slowly but surely that can gain some tropical characteristics, but it's not heading toward the United States. Instead, it's this development. This is where you look, Southwest Atlantic and into the Caribbean. And by the way, it's very similar, November, to what you see in the early part of the years, in June and even July. And there's a reason for that. Because the process in which you see development in November is very similar to the way you see processes develop, tropical development in June and July. It's homegrown development and homegrown development, it's not just the development close to the United States. The way in which you get homegrown development is different than how you get development during the other part of the year. You're not looking at tropical waves coming across the Atlantic, getting into the Caribbean and develop like Melissa. Instead, you get development because of the interaction between the jet stream and the tropics here. And that happens, jet stream comes South. What does the jet stream bring? It brings upper lows, it brings fronts, and it can produce gyres, areas of low pressure down here in the Southwestern Caribbean. Now, you get an area of low pressure to form, it must sit over these warm waters, the Gulf, Southwest Atlantic and the Caribbean, for a minimum of 48 hours, minimum of 48 hours to develop. And if you can get those conditions, you can get tropical development. Okay, so having said that, do we have a dip in the jet stream in these areas? And the answer is yes, it absolutely is yes. In fact, let me zoom back over here and you can see what I'm talking about. You have a dip in the jet stream right here, right in here, coming in across the Gulf of Mexico. You see this? Right in here, all right? So, because of that dip in the jet stream right in here, look what's going on. You have an area of showers and thunderstorms trying to develop here across the Southwestern Caribbean. See all the white in here? These are showers and thunderstorms. So, you're starting to get at least showers and thunderstorms in this area. The question is, what's the wind shear like? Well, let's take a look at the wind shear. Where you see the dark yellows and reds, that's where you have wind shear. You'll notice, this is the wind shear Tuesday morning. You have lower wind shear in here. Watch it start to lower as we get into Tuesday. See right in here. Look at the low wind shear in here. You don't see any coloring here. So, your window for this to develop is going to be tomorrow in the Wednesday. Does it have enough time? I don't think so. I don't think so. Look what happens as we go forward, and again, I want you to concentrate on this. Here's Florida, right? Here's Florida. You can see, here is Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the islands. Here's the Caribbean. Watch what happens moving forward here. Let me play this forward. Watch as we get into Thursday and Friday. See what's going on in the southwest Atlantic by Sunday and Monday with the southwest Caribbean. You're starting to get some colors here, yellows and oranges. The wind shear is starting to increase. How about as we get into Monday and Tuesday of next week? Look at the wind shear again. Much of the Caribbean covered in wind shear, and I'll tell you what. Look at the Atlantic, colored in the yellows and the reds. Listen, we're going to keep an eye on this area in the southwest Caribbean, but I'm starting to doubt seriously that anything will have time to develop. In fact, this area right in here, I think the time frame is going to be through Wednesday. Then the wind shear increases, so it's unlikely, and that's the story on the feed.

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