With the suspected death of Yevgeny Prigozhin after a plane crash near Moscow, there are questions about who could be responsible and what the death of an ally turned adversary could mean for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Moscow

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What Prigozhin's death means for Putin

Well, we know, Adrian, of course, Yevgeny Prigozhin became a central figure because of the war in Ukraine, but he was still largely, I think, a fairly marginal figure within Russia until that mutiny. And that suddenly gave a lot of groups in Russia maybe a big motive for revenge. Prigozhin obviously embarrassed Vladimir Putin. It made him seem weak, first of all, for not being able to stop Prigozhin and his mutineers from taking over cities like Rostov and marching on Moscow. And then he made Putin seem weak again when he had to cut a deal with Prigozhin where he wouldn't be punished and could continue to lead Wagner. A lot of people in the defence ministry may also have been furious as some of Prigozhin's favourite targets of criticism were Russia's top generals. If Putin did this, and not a lot happens in Russia of this magnitude without his approval, if he killed yet another rival, it would be more of what we've seen in the past. This is what happens if you cross me. If it's some other arm of the Russian government responsible, then it's also significant because it could hint at perhaps the growing chaotic nature of Russia's government that even though Putin is in charge, other actors now feel bold enough to make such a big decision on their own. Okay, so let's pull at this a bit. If Putin did order this assassination, is it a coincidence that it's exactly two months to the day since that failed coup on Moscow? I mean, does he believe in symbolism that much? Why wait two months to do this? You know, one of my favourite sayings is, I believe in coincidences but I also believe in the Kremlin. I don't know if there's really a whole lot of coincidence and much that goes on. You know, one possible explanation for this delay, if it was going to happen, may have been to give the security services their time to figure out who else might have been in on this mutiny, to investigate how much support Prigozhin had within the Russian military, perhaps even within Russia's government. And it's also interesting that it happened within hours of the announcement that the former top commander of Russia's war in Ukraine, Sergei Sovikin, had been dismissed from his posts. He hadn't been seen since that mutiny. So now in just a few hours, both of these key players are gone and so we may see more evidence of purges, Adrian, perhaps in the days to come. So that would have been a lot for people in Russia to digest today. What's your sense of what the reaction has been there? Well, a key group to watch, maybe the most important group right off the bat, is to watch the reaction of the Wagner mercenaries. They still number in the tens of thousands. Many are in Belarus. They're experienced fighters. Some have already marched on Moscow once and some are vowing they want to do it again. Even though the entire leadership of Wagner now appears to have been wiped out. Some Russian propagandists are actually trying to ignore this, saying really it's not important or that Prokhozhin, maybe he even managed to fake his own death. One last thought for you here. What's your instinct about the range of things that could happen next? Well, Wagner, as I say, their future looks very uncertain. The groups have been a big part of the Kremlin's goal of showing Russian military might around the globe in Syria and Africa. Will Russia's military be able to take over Wagner operations? Will Wagner be disbanded? That's really too soon to know. As for the war in Ukraine, I can't see much changing there. Prokhozhin's mutiny had almost no impact on the frontline fighting and now Wagner fighters have been pulled back. Still, his soldiers killed thousands of Ukrainians. They're responsible for war crimes and atrocities, including castrating Ukrainian prisoners. I think there will be glee there that he's gone. And finally, of course, Vladimir Putin. For him, the person who mounted the biggest threat to his rule in two decades, he's now dead. And there doesn't appear really to be anyone else, Adrian, in sight, who's in a position to challenge him. Chris Brown, always appreciate your insight. Thank you. All right.

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