Clayton Seigle, Senior Fellow and James R. Schlesinger Chair in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy Security and Climate Change Program at CSIS, says that markets are looking to see if U.S. President Trump will keep the same amount of pressure on Putin over the Ukraine war after the upcoming meeting in Alaska.

Alaska

The meeting between President Trump and President Putin in Alaska is being closely watched by markets, especially due to its potential impact on oil prices and sanctions. Market participants are interested in whether the U.S. will maintain or adjust its current pressure on Russia, particularly with secondary tariffs set to take effect soon. 

Recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have further strained Russia's fuel production, leading to higher domestic gasoline prices and a ban on gasoline exports. The U.S. has also targeted Russian oil sales to countries like China and India, raising questions about the broader effects on global supply and inflation. Analysts suggest that focusing on oil price mechanisms, rather than just reducing volumes, may be a more effective way for the West to maintain pressure on Russian revenues.

What are markets looking out for in the Trump-Putin meeting?

President Zelensky has long said that no deal can happen on Ukraine without Ukraine, so is there any real prospects that we will see some kind of ceasefire framework coming out of this meeting in Alaska, or is this about paving the way for an agreement to have an agreement at some point in the future? I'm glad you asked that question because that's actually the real tie-in with the oil market and the commodities markets generally, because President Trump has an opportunity to press our advantage and Washington's advantage right now with the looming punishment or secondary tariffs that are, as your colleague just mentioned, are supposed to take effect around August 27th, and so the market is looking to see whether President Trump keeps his foot on the gas of increased pressure on Putin or is liable to potentially maybe take his foot off the gas and alleviate some of that pressure that has probably motivated Putin to come to the summit in the first place. And another thing to keep in mind is that Putin is also facing some pressure right now because the latest series of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, and I believe that we've seen six of them attacked just in the last two weeks, is really at an accelerated pace. They've had to cut their refinery runs and their production of fuels, and I've seen reporting that Moscow is planning to extend the ban that it has on gasoline exports right now. So domestic gasoline prices are rising, there's a little bit of a supply crunch because this is at the peak demand time, and so President Trump really does have an opportunity to press Western advantages while Putin remains under some pressure here. How sensitive are the Russians to the measures that we've seen so far, and ultimately how vulnerable is the Russian position given the fact that the country has become quite dependent on selling cheap Russian oil to buyers like China and India, which the Trump administration has been directly targeting as a result? Well, there's two ways to go after Russia's oil revenues, because of course revenues have two components. It's price, the price that the oil is sold at, and the volume that they're selling. Now one problem with sort of chasing away India's purchases of Russian oil is it runs the risk of distressing those barrels and actually removing them or part of them from world supply. And of course that would be bullish for oil prices, and it would be negative for the fight against inflation over here, and the overall macroeconomic outlook and performance. So maybe a more creative way to think about keeping that revenue pressure on is to focus on the price side rather than the volume side. The Indians in a way, like from one perspective, really haven't done anything untoward or wrong. They, like any rational oil trader or other trader, are looking to buy low and sell high within the rules. And they have largely played within the rules of the sanctioned regimen. But it might be possible for the West to try to capture some of those large price discounts that have benefited, for example, the Indian buyers of Russian crude, the Chinese buyers of Russian crude, and some other countries and refineries that have bought Russian refined products since this big reshuffle of Russian oil in 22 and 23. If those discounts can be captured and repurposed for good, then I think something good can come out of this.

U.S. President Donald Trump indicated in an interview that he hoped to push Russian President Vladimir Putin toward a second meeting but acknowledged there was a chance Friday’s meeting would not succeed.

Washington

Ukraine Invasion

Trump shifts tone, confident on deal to end Ukraine war

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalei Smotrich said a plan to add more than 3,000 homes to a controversial settlement in the West Bank would bury ‘the idea of a Palestinian state.’

Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Israel furthers plan for settlement that divides the West Bank

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London. This comes one day before U.S. President Donald Trump is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska to discuss a possible ceasefire in Ukraine.

London

Zelenskyy, Starmer meet ahead of Trump, Putin summit in Alaska

Speaking in the Oval Office on Thursday, President Trump sounded optimistic about his upcoming summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska.

Trump says he thinks Putin and Zelenskyy will make peace

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has announced plans to build another immigrant detention center, dubbing it the "Deportation Depot." The facility will be in North Florida.

Jacksonville

DeSantis announces plan to build another immigrant detention center

President Trump had a virtual call Wednesday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ahead of his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday in Alaska. After the call, Zelenskyy said he told Mr. Trump that "Putin is bluffing."

Ukraine's Zelenskyy warns President Trump ahead of meeting with Putin

U.S. President Donald Trump said he would ask the Republican-controlled Congress to extend federal control of Washington's city police force beyond 30 days, escalating his campaign to exert presidential power over the nation's capital.

Trump wants to extend federal control over Washington police

With just hours left to reach a deal on plastics, negotiators in Geneva were scrambling to resolve a deadlock caused by “red lines” of member countries. Nations are crafting the first global, legally binding treaty on plastics pollution at the United Nations office in Switzerland.

Geneva

Global plastics treaty talks in Geneva stall as deadline looms

At least 123 people have been killed in 24 hours, according to Gaza's Health Ministry. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says people will be given the opportunity to leave Gaza before a planned ground offensive, but no one is being pushed out.

Israeli strikes pound Gaza ahead of planned ground offensive

America's NATO allies stood firmly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ahead of the face-to-face meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. The European leaders showed a united front that there should be no peace deal without Ukraine's involvement.

Kyiv

NATO allies stand with Ukraine ahead of Trump-Putin summit

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement must improve conditions for detainees at New York's 26 Federal Plaza, a judge ruled Tuesday.

New York

Judge rules ICE must improve conditions for detainees at NY facility

National Guard troops arrived in Washington, D.C., following President Donald Trump's deployment and federalization of local police to crack down on crime in the nation's capital.

National Guard troops arrive in Washington, D.C.

U.S. President Donald Trump said that he had a "very good call" with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, days before his scheduled Alaska meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump had 'very good call' with Zelenskyy ahead of Putin meeting

Israel's military chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, has approved the framework of a plan for a new offensive in Gaza. CBS News Middle East reporter Courtney Kealy has more details.

Israeli military chief approves 'framework' for new Gaza offensive

President Donald Trump said Wednesday there will be “very severe consequences” if Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t agree to stop the Ukraine war after Friday’s summit.

Trump warns of 'severe consequences' if Russia doesn't stop war

A Wisconsin woman on Tuesday was found guilty in the United Kingdom of trying to kill a man at point-blank range in 2019. Aimee Betro, 45, was part of a plot with two other co-conspirators to murder Sikander Ali, prosecutors said.

Birmingham

American woman found guilty of UK murder-for-hire plot

Record-high temperatures across Europe are fanning wildfires across the continent. Experts say a warming climate and an increase in flammable vegetation from rural depopulation are major factors.

Madrid

Historic heat fuels fires across Europe

Hungary's PM Viktor Orbán said the EU attempts to set conditions for a meeting to which leaders of the EU were not invited. He also called for an EU-Russia summit.

Brussels

EU leaders rally behind Ukraine ahead of Trump-Putin talks

President Trump said Monday he expects that Russia and Ukraine will "land swap" certain territories as part of an eventual ceasefire deal. Mr. Trump is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.

Trump claims 'land swapping' between Russia, Ukraine will happen

Taylor Swift confirmed her 12th studio album, "The Life of a Showgirl," in a teaser for her upcoming appearance on her boyfriend Travis Kelce's podcast. Swift did not disclose the release date of the album.

Taylor Swift announces new album, 'The Life of a Showgirl'

U.S. President Donald Trump said that his planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday will be to "feel out" the leader as pressure mounts for Russia and Ukraine to make a peace deal.

Trump to meet with Putin in Alaska on Friday

A meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to take place in Alaska, with European leaders notably excluded from the talks. Until Europe can defend itself, it's not likely to be invited to a great power dialogue, experts have told Euronews.

Europe frozen out as U.S. and Russia prepare for Alaska talks

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that Kyiv and Moscow will both have to cede land to end the war in Ukraine and talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week will instantly show whether the Kremlin leader is willing to make a deal.

Trump says both sides in Ukraine war will need to cede territory

A prominent Al Jazeera journalist, who had previously been threatened by Israel, was killed along with four colleagues and another journalist in an Israeli airstrike in an attack condemned by journalists and rights groups.

Israeli strike kills Al Jazeera journalists in Gaza

At last one person is dead, dozens are injured and two people are unaccounted for after an explosion at the U.S. Steel Clairton plant in Pennsylvania on Monday.

Clairton

At least 1 dead, dozens injured in U.S. Steel plant explosion

President Donald Trump has placed the Metropolitan Police Department under federal control and announced he's activating the National Guard to combat crime in Washington, D.C.

Trump deploying National Guard to Washington, D.C.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is thanking European leaders for backing his push to join this week's Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, insisting an end to the war must be fair.

Breakdown