September will be a big month in Washington, D.C. Chris Krueger, TD Cowen managing director, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss what's happening in the political world, the tariffs at risk and much more.

Washington

Donald Trump has signed an order to impose tariffs imports into the U.S. from countries including China, Mexico and Canada.

Global Tariffs

Washington is entering a critical period with several major policy decisions on the horizon, particularly regarding monetary and trade policy. The only recent certainty has been the passage of a significant tax bill, while other areas remain unresolved. A key issue is the Supreme Court's pending decision on tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEPA). If these tariffs are struck down, the U.S. government may be required to issue substantial refunds, affecting both the bond market and broader economic conditions.

The administration has alternative statutory tools to impose tariffs if the IEPA tariffs are removed, but ongoing legal uncertainty leaves businesses worldwide in a state of limbo. The bond and stock markets are already reacting to expectations of changes in tariff revenue, which also influences U.S. credit ratings. The coming weeks are expected to be pivotal as policymakers and markets await further developments.

Washington has a big month ahead. Here are key dates to know

Let's talk about it all with Chris Krueger, TD Cowen Managing Director, Washington Research Group Strategist, and maybe the only man I know that can quote the Grateful Dead and Vladimir Lenin in the same piece, because you quoted Lenin who said, there are decades where nothing happens, and then there are weeks where decades happens. The latter certainly feels like that's what's happening right now. Absolutely. I mean, 51 weeks ago was the Trump-Harris debate, so it's pretty much every week it's been nonstop for the past year. But when you think about what's coming this month, Brian, it's really monetary policy and trade policy. The only thing we've got some certainty on really was from July. We do have some tax certainty with the one beautiful bill being passed into law, but other than that, it's still very much wide open. Yeah. And we can't know what the Supreme Court will do around these tariffs related to emergency acts. So clarify that, right? It's not all the tariffs. It's the tariffs that are related to what they call IEPA, sort of the Emergency Powers Act. Those are the ones that are at risk. Let's just say for giggles, Chris, that the Supreme Court agrees with the appeals court because, by the way, we don't know what they're going to do. And those tariffs go away. What happens? Uncle Sam's probably going to have to write a very large check. That's a problem because the bond market vigilantes have essentially become tariff men and women now. We're talking about the potential for massive rebates through IEPA. The U.S. has taken in a little less than $100 billion so far. The administration has until October 14th to file an appeal with the Supreme Court. The tariffs will remain in place until then. The Supreme Court may not rule on this until next summer. So a tremendous amount of uncertainty. While that occurs, though, the administration has the 232 statute, has the 301 statute. That's what they've been using for sectoral tariffs and for largely the ex-Fentanyl China tariffs. So those are not being litigated in this. There are two other statutes that the administration, if they want to start sort of doing some of the work on this to prepare for a potential Supreme Court striking down IEPA, they have 3122. They have 338. Then you can essentially just put those reciprocal tariffs back on. The issue is really twofold, though. One, it's the potential for refunds. But then number two, it's the bigger issue, which is that all of these businesses across the globe will kind of remain in tariff limbo. Let's put the pieces together because it is confusing. By the way, it's confusing on this side of the camera. I can't imagine how confusing it is for people who don't do this for a living. But what I think you said, Chris, is that these these IEPA tariffs, they are bringing in money. We can debate how much it is, but they are bringing in money. The bond market is moving today here and around the world based on expectations of less money coming in. Bond market may be negatively impacting stocks. So if these tariffs, the illegality of the tariffs is upheld, the bond market may move and we may end up with higher interest rates. Absolutely. And also, I mean, don't forget last month, S&P kept the U.S., kept our our credit rating largely due to the increased tariff revenue. The credit raters saying that that increased tariff revenue would negate any of the negative fiscal from the three point four trillion dollar one big, beautiful bill. So it's there are a lot of irons in the fire. And, you know, it's just sort of, you know, it's just one more week.

The U.S. military struck a drug-carrying boat hailing from Venezuela, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, as tensions spike between the Trump administration and the Venezuelan government. Charlie D'Agata has more.

Caracas

U.S. military strikes drug-carrying boat from Venezuela, Rubio says

The House Oversight Committee on Tuesday released over 33,000 pages of documents related to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

33,000 pages of Jeffrey Epstein documents released by House panel

Belgium joins the ranks of Australia, France, Canada and the UK, all who have pledged to recognize a Palestinian state at the UNGA next week in a bid to ramp up pressure on the Israeli government to end the war in Gaza.

Brussels

Middle East Conflict

Belgium to recognize Palestine at the UN General Assembly

A powerful 6.0 magnitude earthquake in eastern Afghanistan killed at least 1,400 people, according to the Afghan Red Crescent Society. Thousands more were  injured.

Kunar

At least 1,400 killed in powerful Afghanistan earthquake

The death toll from Afghanistan's worst earthquake in years jumped to over 1,100 with thousands more injured, as difficult terrain hindered rescue efforts in isolated villages of the country's mountainous eastern region.

Taliban appeals for aid after quake kills over 1100 in Afghanistan

The leaders of Russia, China and India showcased a renewed commitment to co-operation on the second day of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. Analysts says the friendliness is designed to project an unified alternative to the West.

Tianjin

Russia, China, India tout renewed co-operation

A plane carrying European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was disrupted by jamming that authorities suspect was the result of Russian interference in Bulgaria.

Plovdiv

Von der Leyen's plane affected by alleged Russian GPS jamming

The world's leading genocide scholars' association has passed a resolution saying that the legal criteria have been met to establish Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, its president said on Monday (September 1).

Jerusalem

Israel committing genocide in Gaza, scholars' association says

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined a new global security and economic order at a regional summit on Monday (September 1), as India and Russia continued to express strong ties between their nations.

China's Xi, Russia's Putin share vision for new global order

A devastating 6.0 magnitude earthquake struck eastern Afghanistan late Sunday, killing more than 800 people and injuring hundreds more, officials said. CBS News senior foreign correspondent Holly Williams reports.

Kabul

Powerful earthquake in Afghanistan kills hundreds, destroys villages

Iran-backed Houthis raided offices of the United Nations’ food, health and children's agencies in Yemen’s capital, detaining several UN employees, officials said. The rebels tightened security across Sanaa following the Israeli killing of their prime minister and several Cabinet members.

Sana'a

Houthis raid UN offices in Yemen, detain 11 employees

A large buildup of U.S. naval forces in and around the Southern Caribbean has officials in Caracas and experts in the United States asking: is the move aimed at combating drug cartels, as the Trump administration has suggested, or is it for something else entirely?

U.S. builds up forces in Caribbean as officials, experts concerned

Officials from the Trump administration spent the weekend pushing back against a U.S. appeals court ruling that most tariffs against Canada were illegal. Economic adviser Peter Navarro called the decision politically motivated.

Trump officials push back after court rules tariffs illegal

Israel's security cabinet is considering a plan to seize Gaza City with attacks ramping up over the weekend. The Israeli military has now ended a temporary pause of military action around aid delivery locations ahead of an expected 'full-scale assault'.

Tel Aviv-Yafo

Israel intensifying attacks ahead of planned seizure of Gaza City

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker says he's making every effort to stop President Trump from using the military to "invade states." But the White House claims the National Guard is needed to stop violent crime in Chicago.

Chicago

Trump threatens to send military to Chicago over crime

A young boy who had wandered away from his parents ended up on a closed monorail at Hersheypark in Pennsylvania this weekend. A bystander helped rescue the boy as a gathering crowd cheered. It's not clear how he made his way onto the monorail.

Hershey

Boy rescued from monorail track at Pennsylvania amusement park

A flotilla of boats carrying humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza, has set sail from Barcelona. On board are organisers from 44 countries, who say they're trying to break Israel's siege on the Strip.

Barcelona

Greta Thunberg onboard second aid flotilla heading for Gaza Strip

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said New Delhi was committed to improving ties with China in a key meeting with President Xi Jinping, as the two leaders discussed the need to expand trade and investment ties against the backdrop of U.S. tariffs.

Beijing

Modi meets with Xi, vows to improve China ties

Pakistan's eastern Punjab province is facing one of the worst flood emergencies in recent history. Authorities say raging waters have affected the lives of more than 2 million people.

Punjab

Pakistan's Punjab province battered by historic flood

China’s Xi Jinping has welcomed Russia’s Vladimir Putin, India’s Narendra Modi and leaders from around 20 countries to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, a high-security gathering aimed at boosting Beijing’s influence and promoting "a multipolar world order."

Xi aims to show global south unity with Modi and Putin

Russia's Vladimir Putin is among a dozen leaders attending the regional security summit, which comes at a crunch moment in talks over his war on Ukraine, and for a summit that's demonstrating a strong show of unity among Global South leaders.

Putin arrives in China for key regional security summit

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson detailed his plan Saturday to resist President Trump's threatened immigration crackdown in his city. CBS News has learned the Trump administration plans to intensify immigration enforcement in the city as early as next week.

Chicago mayor pushes back on Trump's immigration crackdown

Russian strikes shook the Zaporizhzhia region in southern Ukraine overnight Friday, hitting a five-story apartment building, killing at least one person and injuring dozens more.

Zaporizhzhia

Russia continues assault on Ukrainian cities

For the first time since this week's deadly mass shooting at a Minneapolis church, which killed two young students and wounded more than a dozen people, a devastated community gathered Saturday at the site to attend Mass.

Minneapolis

Mass held at site of Minneapolis church shooting

The United States says it will not allow Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to travel to New York next month for a United Nations gathering of world leaders, where several U.S. allies are set to recognise Palestine as a state.

New York

U.S bars Palestinian leadership from attending UN

The Department of Homeland Security is preparing for an immigration crackdown in Chicago as early as next week, sources told CBS News. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker blasted the Trump administration's plans.

Chicago immigration crackdown could happen next week, sources say

The Israeli military on Friday declared Gaza City a “dangerous combat zone” before a new offensive in the Palestinian enclave's largest city. Israel is moving forward with plans to seize Gaza City despite growing international pressure to end the nearly two-year conflict.

Israel declares Gaza City a 'dangerous combat zone'

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has been blocked from attending the UN General Assembly in New York next month. That's as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has cancelled visas for the Palestinian delegation.

U.S. blocks Palestinian officials from attending UN general assembly

The death toll of a devastating Russian air assault in Kyiv earlier this week has been revised upward to 25. Now European allies suggest Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing U.S. President Donald Trump if he runs out the clock on Washington's peace efforts.

Washington has a big month ahead. Here are key dates to know

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