Name: Trumps day one package was risk-positive
Uploaded: 2025-01-21T15:59:13.798Z
Duration: 3 min 4 s
Description: U.S. President Donald Trump says he plans to enforce tariffs on Canada and Mexico by Feb. 1. While some interpret his first-day statements as risk-negative, others argue they are actually risk-positive.

U.S. President Donald Trump says he plans to enforce tariffs on Canada and Mexico by Feb. 1. While some interpret his first-day statements as risk-negative, others argue they are actually risk-positive.

Washington

Donald Trump is preparing to take office after defeating Kamala Harris in the U.S. Presidential election.

U.S. Presidential Elect

U.S. President Donald Trump has announced plans to enforce tariffs on Canada and Mexico, with a proposed implementation by the beginning of February. His recent statements have sparked differing interpretations regarding market risk. Some viewed his tariff-related comments as risk-negative, whilst others suggested they may be risk-positive, particularly since the immediate focus does not include China.

Analyzing Trump's initial messages reveals a more risk-positive tone, according to some observers. The anticipated tariffs targeting China, which holds a significant role in global trade, are not expected to be implemented imminently. This delay is perceived as a relief for global markets. Additionally, the prospective tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been deferred to February, indicating a shift from a potential earlier date. This provides stakeholders time to prepare and possibly negotiate.

Furthermore, Trump's mention of European nations potentially circumventing tariffs by purchasing U.S. oil aligns with his campaign rhetoric, suggesting such tariffs are part of negotiation strategies rather than immediate policy. This may lead to reduced fears of immediate tariff implementations, encouraging market stabilization.

The effect of these developments is evident in currency markets. Most of the major currencies showed appreciable gains against the U.S. dollar following the news, though subsequent announcements regarding Canada and Mexico slightly reduced these gains for currencies like the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso. Nonetheless, the overall sentiment appears tilted towards a downside risk for the U.S. dollar without dramatic changes in the narrative.



Trump's day one package was risk-positive

Mark let's start with what we heard from President Trump then yesterday in the various formats that we heard it. Some people taking a sort of risk negative message from what he said about Canada and Mexico, others and I think you're in this camp saying well actually don't worry too much it wasn't China and it's not today so we have a little respite on that sort of risk off tariff story. Your overall assessment? I think overall it was very much a risk positive message from Donald Trump. I understand that things can change, I understand that he's considered unpredictable but we just have to take the facts face value from where we were a few days ago. You know you take this day a week ago as an arbitrary starting point. At that time it was expected that day one or day two tariffs would be announced on China to some varying degree. Now we have a study on China trade which implies nothing is coming imminently. So already that is a massive win for global markets given that China is such a key global economy and the key global trade partner around the world. So that's a big positive. The other one is that we are expecting some other tariff measures and now already for example the threatened ones on Canada and Mexico that are the ones people are most worried about today, well they've been pushed back to February 1st from potentially being January 20th or January 21st so they're already being in 11 days later. It seems like these tariffs threats for the moment, the message from yesterday is these were more about negotiations and also remember those 25% suggested tariffs by February 1st, Trump could have done them yesterday if he really wanted to. That was in response to some questions, it was kind of off the cuff and is in line with his campaign speech. Clearly there was no desire to do it yesterday. Also he made some other comments about talking about people could essentially, European countries could avoid tariffs if they kind of buy oil from the US etc which again all these things imply that those who believe the tariff threats were more of a negotiating ploy are currently in the correct camp. That may change in the future but for now the message is very much risk on and dollar negative. Well Mark talk to us about what is actually priced in then. If we're just talking about negotiations so much of this was priced in on the campaign trail when it comes to say Mexico or Canada for example, put China on the back burner, what's priced in to EM currencies right now? It's really hard to work it out exactly. I think that the fact is these currencies are significantly weaker against the dollar since the election and I think you see in the short-term reactions this morning when we are currently trading the narrative no new tariffs from day one before the Canada-Mexico comments are made, these currencies, 11 of the 16 major currencies on the Bloomberg rally by more than 1% against the dollar. We are seeing really really powerful moves. Then when we suddenly got the headline threats of 25% against Canada and Mexico by February 1st, sure they paired those gains but not so much apart from obviously CAD and Mexican peso itself. So I think overall there's an asymmetric risk here on the dollar and I think it's more likely downside without a big shift to narrative again.

Analysts say the discussions could be pivotal in clarifying U.S. intentions, easing tensions and reinforcing commitments to Greenland’s sovereignty in the face of strategic interests from Washington.

Denmark and Greenland ministers to meet Rubio and Vance at White House

Former Corsican nationalist leader Alain Orsoni, who also served as the president of soccer club AC Ajaccio, was shot dead in Corsica on January 11 during his mother’s funeral. He was 71. Alain Orsoni was one of the leaders of the Corsican National Liberation Front (FLNC) in the 1980s. He later founded and led the Movement for Self-Determination (MPA).

Vero

Ex-Corsican nationalist leader Alain Orsoni killed at mother's funeral

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who needs to have a graft conviction overturned to seize her best chance at the French presidency, risks seeing her life's work upended if she loses her appeal. It comes after a French court last year barred her from running for office for five years over a European Parliament fake-jobs scam involving her and other officials from her National Rally party.

Paris

Marine Le Pen's appeal in EU fund embezzlement case opens in Paris

British regulators are investigating X for lewd AI images generated by Grok, the AI arm of Elon Musk's social platform. Michael Goodyear, an associate professor at New York Law School, joins CBS News with more.

London

UK investigating Musk's X over Grok's AI-generated images

As U.S. President Donald Trump weighs a response to Iran's deadly crackdown on nationwide protests, Iranian leaders say they are still keeping communications open with the Americans. But on January 12, large pro-government rallies took place across Iran, and the U.S. was clearly framed as the enemy and instigator of the protests.

Tehran

Iranian leaders mobilise supporters as U.S. weighs intervention

Last week an Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agent shot and killed Renee Good, a Minneapolis mother who was observing a law enforcement action carried out by the agency.

Minnesota

Minnesota sues federal government to prevent further ICE deployment

The demonstrations are the biggest Iran has seen in years. Protests spurred by the Iranian currency collapse have morphed into a larger test of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's rule.

Trump weighs military action against Iran over protest crackdown

President Claudia Sheinbaum has sought to safeguard Mexican sovereignty while cooperating with the US on key issues.

Mexico City

Mexico’s Sheinbaum rejects Trump’s threat of strikes on drug cartels

President Donald Trump said that any country which does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on trade with the U.S., as Washington weighs a response to the situation in Iran which is seeing its biggest anti-government protests in years.

Trump says nations trading with Iran will face 25% U.S. tariffs

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says his country is ready for war but also for dialogue, after US President Donald Trump said the US is considering ‘very strong options’ in response to Iran’s crackdown on antigovernment protests.

Iran FM Araghchi warns ready for war if U.S. wants to ‘test’ it

Britain will bring into effect a law criminalizing the creation of non-consensual intimate images this week, technology minister Liz Kendall told parliament after regulator Ofcom launched an investigation into Elon Musk's X.

UK investigates Musk's X over Grok sexual deepfakes

Iran's internet was cut off late last Thursday, apparently in an attempt by government authorities to prevent protesters from organizing and uploading videos for the outside world to see.

Iran enforcing nationwide internet blackout amid protests

Malaysia and Indonesia have become the first countries to block Grok, the artificial intelligence chatbot developed by Elon Musk's company xAI, amid concerns that it is being misused to generate sexually explicit and nonconsensual images.

Malaysia and Indonesia block Musk’s Grok over sexualized AI images

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has welcomed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who is on a two-day visit. Merz is traveling with a large business delegation as Germany seeks to deepen economic and security ties.

New Delhi

Germany's Merz makes first official visit to India

At the first major awards show of the season, "One Battle After Another" and "Adolescence" both won four awards. In a surprise win, "Hamnet" upset "Sinners" for best motion picture for a drama.

Los Angeles

"One Battle After Another," "Adolescence" win big at Golden Globes

Fallout from the fatal shooting of Renee Good by a U.S. immigration and customs enforcement officer in Minneapolis continues with government officials standing by the action and ordering more ICE officers into the city.

Minneapolis

Hundreds more ICE agents headed to Minneapolis after fatal shooting

Powell said the investigation, linked to a testimony he gave to a Senate committee about renovations to Fed buildings, was an attempt to limit central bank independence.

U.S. opens criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell

Protests continue in Iran amid a violent government crackdown. Activists say hundreds of demonstrators have been killed. President Trump says Iran now wants to negotiate to prevent a U.S. military response.

Trump says Iran 'wants to negotiate' as protests intensify

President Trump says Iranian leaders have reached out to the U.S. to negotiate, as massive protests continue and more deaths are reported by activists.

Trump weighs military option in Iran amid rising death toll

President Trump has been briefed on new military options for a strike against Iran amid widespread protests and a government crackdown on communications for Iranians, a senior U.S. official tells CBS News. "We'll be hitting them very hard where it hurts," he said at the White House.

Trump briefed on new military options for Iran strikes amid protests

Demonstrations in Iran are now entering their third week and the death toll is surging with hundreds killed, according to a human rights group. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei insisted that the Islamic regime will "not back down" in the face of the growing social unrest and calls for regime change.

Protests in Iran intensifying despite threat of death for dissidents

The Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas showcased a wide array of AI-powered innovations, including paper-thin televisions, interactive Lego, and binoculars that can identify bird species in real time. Notable breakthroughs included .Lumen's AI glasses for the visually impaired and Roborock's Saros Rover, a robotic vacuum cleaner capable of navigating stairs and various surfaces autonomously.

Las Vegas

Rise of AI

AI-powered innovation dominates Consumer Electronics show

Human remains were found in Australia's southeast where bushfires raging for days have razed buildings, cut power to thousands of homes and burned swaths of bushland, police said. The blazes are burning out of control during a summer heat wave in Victoria state.

Victoria

'Gut-wrenching': Australian bushfires expected to burn for weeks

Anti-government protests in Iran show no sign of stopping. Human rights groups are putting the death toll at 116 with 2600 detained. U.S. President Donald Trump has reaffirmed U.S. support for the protesters.

Protests in Iran defy government crackdown

Iran's army is threatening to join the crackdown on protesters as demonstrations against the regime grow and the death toll mounts. Huge crowds have taken to the streets across the Islamic Republic. Iran's Revolutionary Guard calls them "terrorists." Haley Ott has more details.

Iran's army threatens to join crackdown against protesters

President Trump said, "We are going to do something on Greenland, whether they like it or not," earlier this week. But Greenland, a territory of Denmark and a NATO ally, is rejecting the threats.

Nuuk

Greenland rejects Trump's threats

Trump, who often cites national security interests as the reason for taking Greenland, said that if the US does not do something, 'Russia or China will take over Greenland'.

Trump says U.S will act on Greenland, 'whether they like it or not'

Protests across the U.S., including in Minneapolis, Philadelphia and Miami, are taking place following the fatal shooting of 37-year-old Renee Good by an ICE agent in Minneapolis. Police declared the demonstrations in downtown Minneapolis an 'unlawful assembly'.

Philadelphia

Protests spread across the U.S. over ICE shooting of woman

Internet and phone lines in Iran have been cut off as anti-government protests enter their second week. Reports say at least 65 people have been killed and more than 2,300 others detained. U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of a possible U.S. response to the government crackdown.

Internet blackout in Iran enters second day as protests intensify

Rescue workers are trying to find dozens of people trapped under a collapsed landfill in the Philippines. At least four people have been confirmed dead. The incident took place on Thursday, with more than 100 workers on site at the time.

See The Full Story

U.S. Presidential Elect