In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno explains how an incoming cold air mass will set the stage for snow and ice across portions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

AccuWeather reports that the central United States, particularly the Southern Plains and Midwest, are expected to experience the warmest Christmas on record, with exceptional warmth spreading across much of the country. However, a resistance zone of colder air will persist near the Great Lakes and Northeast, preventing extreme warmth from reaching those areas.

Following Christmas, a strong high-pressure system is forecast to bring cold Arctic air into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, setting the stage for a snow and ice event. Forecast models differ on the exact track and intensity of the precipitation, but both the European and GFS models indicate the potential for significant snow in cities such as New York and Philadelphia, with Boston possibly remaining too cold for precipitation to reach.

Snow and ice the day after Christmas

Boy, do we have a lot to talk about on the feed today. We're talking about the warmest Christmas on record, not for everybody, but certainly in the Southern Plains. And then, boy, do we have a tricky forecast on Friday. Remember, I was telling you, I'm very skeptical about how far north this warmth is getting near the lakes in the Northeast. And I think there's an Arctic injection coming in to New England and maybe down to New York City, a very cold air mass, as we get into Christmas night, into Christmas morning. And that sets us up, I think, for a snow and ice event in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. And it could be all snow in New York City. This is going to be a real tricky forecast. But first, I do want to take you out to this. I want to show you this. This is Christmas Eve, and let me show you the temperatures here. So this is Christmas Eve. You can see where we are. Here's your warmer air. You're still dealing with colder air near the lakes and into the Northeast. This is Christmas Day. Here comes the warmth right in here, and you can see it in here. Now listen, I think there's a resistance zone here near the lakes and into the Northeast. This is not going to be a Christmas blowtorch this far north. Certainly will be in parts of the Midwest and the Plains states, no doubt about it. But just want to let you know, for much, much of the country here, this is going to be a very warm... I want to show you this. These are more ensembles, but I want to show you this is Christmas Day, by the way, where you see this red. This is exceptional warmth. So you've got exceptional warmth in here. Notice where you don't have it, near the lakes and into the Northeast. That's been my contention that it wouldn't get that far north. It's not going to. But boy, I tell you what, look at these areas in here. Some of these spots will have the warmest Christmas on record. Now, I want to talk about Friday because Friday is going to be a very, very tricky forecast. Some of the modeling I think on Friday had a blowtorch warm Friday in the Northeast. That's not going to happen. Let me show you why. I want to show you the European first. Now, this is Wednesday, so this is Christmas Eve. You've got this piece of energy in here. You see this? This is near Hudson Bay. Watch where this goes. Comes right into the Northeast. And you see how it digs south, right across New England? This is Christmas afternoon, Christmas evening, it's offshore. Look what the surface panel looks like here. This is Christmas Eve. Look at this big high. This is why Chicago Christmas Day is not going to be all that warm. It's not going to be Arctic cold, but you've got this 1032 high with the wind coming in out of the East Northeast. That is not necessarily a warm flow for Chicago. More warmth is down in here, but look at that high coming south and east. Watch it as we get into Thursday evening and then Friday morning. Look at that. You've got a 1032 high here in Quebec, and you've got colder air in the low levels coming south. And let me tell you something about this cold air mass. The models always underdo this in the Northeast. This cold air will be deeper and stronger than what you think. Now, that's the European. GFS looks very similar. Look at the high building down. There it is. Thursday afternoon. Watch it come into Friday. There it is. Friday morning. There it is. Look at that high. 1035. And you see how you have these isobars kinking? This is telling you that cold air is going all the way down east of the Appalachians. We call it cold air damming. You can even see it on the temperature profile here. Let me go back to it. On Friday morning here, right here. This is Friday morning. Look at that cold air. And you start seeing kinks all the way up into northern New England. This is a cold air mass. So think about what's going on. Let me go back to my modeling here. At the surface, you've got high pressure in here funneling all this cold air. Now, notice what's going on here. This is energy, right, coming out of our big system in California that's going to produce flooding rain. There's going to be major problems in California here in the next couple of days. Let me go back to the upper air. So what's happening is, let me show you the European model. Here's the European model. What it's doing is, it's taking this piece of energy out ahead of your main storm and running it east-northeast. Now, that's going to attack the cold air on Friday. The European has the energy way up here. Now, that's important because on the southern side of this, you'll start getting warming a lot that would change any mixed precipitation like snow and sleet over the rain the farther north this goes. The GFS, though, is farther south. That has the energy way down here, way down here. So the European has that energy here. The GFS has it here. That's a big difference. So when you look at the surface map for Friday, this is the European. Here it comes. Now, listen. Now, this is European. Here it comes. Look at the pink. Across southwestern parts of Pennsylvania, into New York City, a little snow. Now watch. Europeans suggest this is all snow for New York City. Not sure about that yet, but I certainly think there's snow and ice coming to New York City. Look at the GFS because it's farther south. This suggests it is all snow across most of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, and New York City. It may be too far off to your south. So we've got a problem on Friday. Now, you get to Boston and New England, you may be too deep in the cold air that the precept doesn't get there. But just to show you what this looked like, I'm gonna show you some model soundings here. This is out of New York City. Now, what I want to concentrate is this. This is the zero line, 32 degree line. If you're to the left of this, that means you're all snow. Now watch New York City as I show you this. This is on Friday. Here comes the precipitation, Friday evening. There it is. Look at this sounding. This is European. Here's your 32 degree line. This is all snow. And the GFS also showing all snow. We have some problems along the I-95 corridor on Friday and parts of the mid-Atlantic for snow and ice. And we're gonna keep you updated all week on the feed.

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