The outlook for Utah's snowpack is 'not the greatest', experts say.

Utah

Utah's upcoming fall and winter seasons are expected to be hot and dry, delaying the start of snow accumulation. Climatologist John Meyer from the Utah Climate Center notes that while it is too early for a definitive winter forecast, long-range models indicate snowpack levels similar to last year—slightly below average in the north and poor in central and southern Utah.

The forecast is influenced by the expected return of a weak La Nina, which typically brings drier conditions to the southern part of the state. While short-term monsoon rains may provide some relief by improving soil moisture, the majority of Utah's water resources depend on winter snowpack, making the outlook concerning for water supply.

Outlook for Utah's snowpack 'not the greatest'

Our outlook for Utah's fall and winter at the moment is not the greatest. We're looking at pretty confident forecasts for another hot and dry fall which will prolong the start of our snow accumulation season. Climatologist John Meyer of the Utah Climate Center expresses that it's a little early to give a firm forecast on the full winter months and how much snow will be generated, but long-range models don't paint a pretty picture. The extended range forecast models that we've been looking at at the moment have been doing a pretty consistent job of predicting a near clone of what we saw last year. A clone of last year? That means slightly below average to average snowpack across the north with a dismal outlook across central and southern Utah. Why are the models leaning into that outcome? We are expecting to have another weak La Nina present again this winter time. Under a La Nina scenario, the jet stream keeps the flow of storms mainly north and dry conditions persist across the south. This is the opposite impact under an El Nino year. A positive outlook in the short term as rain is in the forecast under a monsoon flow. How does that help with the drought? A huge portion of Utah's annual water resources do come from our wintertime snowpack. However, there are some long-range benefits with rain in the short term. A little bit more humidity in place, obviously lots of precipitation, getting some soil moisture in place across the state. That way, when we do get to snow accumulation season, underneath of our snowpack next spring when it does come time to melt, we don't have a huge sponge underneath of that snow that will suck up all of the water that should be coming down the rivers and recharging our reservoirs.

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