Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and chief U.S. equity strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss on what recent Nvidia news means for tech companies at-large, what to expect from earnings and much more.

Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, commented on Nvidia's renewed ability to sell products in China, viewing it as a significant positive for semiconductor companies. He noted that this move follows a previous large write-down by Nvidia and is expected to improve margins and support the ongoing AI capital expenditure cycle.

Wilson explained that the AI investment cycle, which slowed earlier in the year, has since recovered, contributing to broader market gains. He also discussed the market's shift away from concerns over tariffs, attributing improved earnings forecasts to recent policy changes and legislative actions. Wilson anticipates that while some earnings risks may emerge later in the year, overall earnings growth should reaccelerate into the following year.

Nvidia-China return adds more fuel to AI capex fire, says Mike Wilson

Joining us right now for his take on the markets is Mike Wilson He's chief investment officer and chief u.s. Equity strategist for Morgan Stanley and Mike. It's great to see you morning before we talk more broadly Can you just comment on on Nvidia what that means maybe for tech for tech companies writ large? Yeah, I think this is back to the issue of in dealing with it's like what's gonna be sanctioned What's not gonna be sanctioned? I mean the 232 like what's gonna be carved out So this is a step in the in the right direction for semiconductor companies broadly I would say and let's not forget that they took a large write-down for that for the same $5.5 billion just a few months ago and now apparently they can sell them So that's gonna be a huge positive kick the margins, you know going forward and you know Look at one of our big themes this year as we came in was that AI catbacks is gonna slow Decelerate and then all that troughed in April And I think that explains a lot of the sell-off in the first quarter and a lot of the recovery doesn't get a lot of attention though People are focused on tariffs are focused on other things that are going on But the AI cap X cycle has been very important for the overall market direction first down in the first quarter and then the recovery In the second quarter in this deal or announcement, I think is just more fuel to that fire What do you think overall? I know that you believe the one big beautiful bill was was very positive to have that passed And I think you are writing off a lot of the worst headlines for tariffs at this point, too Well, that's right I mean, I think we had a lot of bad news in the first quarter Once again, there were many headwinds to growth a lot of those some of those were policy driven Some of those were not policy driven and they all seem to sort of bottom in in the April period So the market has moved on from tariffs as though the worst is behind us It doesn't mean that we don't still have bad news or issues in front of us But it's moving beyond that and the big beautiful bill did sort of wrap up a lot of the things that are now going to Lead to positive things for earnings growth both in the second half of this year and into next year So as we said the beginning of the year President Trump came in he's like a new CEO They kitchen sink things, right? They did all the growth negative things first And I think the big beautiful bill is part of that positive transition now to really earnings growth more so than economic growth And I think the market understands this. This is why people are very confused about why is the market up? Why is the market up? well Earnings revision breath has turned straight up and we've been we've been talking about this for three months and the big beautiful bill only supports that view further Earnings, we're just starting to hear the first of the banks reporting now I think earnings growth of three or four percent is anticipated overall You think it's gonna be better than that or not? Yeah, I mean these companies manage these these earnings So I'm very confident they'll beat by four or five percent as typical and and here's the key for for earnings I think the third so the first two quarters We didn't see the impact of tariffs because companies sort of pre-bought a lot of goods And so we're not seeing the flow-through to the cost of goods sold if there's gonna be an earnings risk story It's probably in the third quarter, but it's back in load financials don't have impact from tariffs, right? It's gonna be in the consumer good space and those companies tend to report in the back half of the earning season So I think August is gonna be the period where we could have some sort of corrective activity around the earnings But that's a pause because I my view is that earnings are gonna reaccelerate in the fourth quarter into 2026 President Trump is He does things that are unexpected it's some people think that's a benefit with with our enemies not knowing what the heck he might do at any time, but One thing that seems consistent is if Jensen Wong goes him and says look NVIDIA is gonna be severely hurt if we can't do that or if Tim Cook goes in and said look if we we can't build Our iPhones right now in the United States without him costing foot He seems to be you can speak talk to him and if it's about business and about companies succeeding Even with tariffs, I think if the big three come and say look you're doing this You got a carve this out for us if we're getting seats from Canada. He seems to err on the side of Trying to help businesses can can we count on that? That would be nice if we could count on that Well, I think we've learned that over two terms now, right? I mean then the market is on to this idea that yeah There's it's you know, it's a negotiating strategy to go way over here and then there'll be carve-outs right and things like rare-earth metals, right? It's another one in the magnets. I mean, that's another one where they're making concessions One really wanted to deprive everyone. So then the question is when it comes to tariffs. What do you think? We ultimately what do you think we ultimately get or not? Well, this isn't and by the way, though if we all know this Don't our trading partners know this too and then they don't negotiate you but don't they look and go this right? Yeah, but that's why I think the market is saying that we're gonna settle somewhere in the middle So on my view personally has been for a while That this is gonna end up looking at 10% consumption tax sort of like a VAT and the idea there is it'll be shared between exporters Importers and consumers kind of equally we can live with that and that's what I think the market is settled on Could it be wrong about that conclusion? Sure, could there be situations where it's a little bit worse perhaps maybe with Vietnam or some of these other countries? Maybe even China, but at the end of the day if we can collect 10% Tax on all imports, that's 400 billion dollars a year. I mean, that's real revenue Right. I think that's the goal here is that it's a revenue generator. Okay, we can live with this It's a shared tax across those three constituents and businesses will figure it out And I think that's where that's why the market is it's not complacent. It's just that's where it's settling

Fighting has erupted in the southern Syrian city of As Suwayda just six hours after a ceasefire was announced. Earlier on Tuesday, Syrian government forces withdrew heavy vehicles from the city, hoping to ease tensions.

As Suwayda

Fighting erupts in Syria’s As Suwayda hours after ceasefire deal

Two laptops and hard drives containing watermarked and unreleased music by Beyoncé were stolen from her choreographer’s rental car in Atlanta, according to police.

Atlanta

Unreleased Beyoncé music stolen from choreographer’s rental car

The House Committee on Education and Workforce is holding its ninth hearing in 18 months on antisemitism on college campuses. CBS News' Shanelle Kaul has more details.

Washington

Anger at House committee hearing on antisemitism in college campuses

An Air India Boeing airplane crashed in northwestern India in June, killing all people on board but one passenger. India's aviation regulator has now ordered airlines to examine fuel control switches on several Boeing models.

New Delhi

India orders airlines to inspect Boeing airplane models after crash

Controversy on Capitol Hill over the so-called Epstein Files is seemingly not going away anytime soon.

House Republicans block Democratic push to release Epstein documents

An Israeli scheme to move hundreds of thousands of already uprooted Palestinians to a so-called "humanitarian city" in Gaza has led politicians to spar with the defense establishment. Critics inside and outside Israel have denounced the proposal.

Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Critics slam Israeli scheme to move Gazans to 'humanitarian city'

At least two people were killed in a New Jersey flash flooding event, Gov. Phil Murphy said Tuesday morning as heavy rains are expected to continue battering the Northeast. CBS News' Rob Marciano has more details.

New Jersey

Two killed in New Jersey flash flooding

After over a week of negotiations in Doha, a truce in Gaza remains elusive, despite intensified efforts by mediators. The stalemate continues as both Hamas and Israel trade blame over ongoing strikes.

Doha

Gaza truce still out of reach after Doha talks

The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday cleared the way for President Donald Trump's administration to resume dismantling the Department of Education, part of his bid to shrink the federal government's role in education in favor of more control by the states.

U.S. Supreme Court clears way for Trump to gut Education Department

Syria's government troops entered the Sweida region following deadly clashes on Tuesday, while Israel carried out strikes against them, saying it was acting to protect the Druze minority.

Syrian forces enter Sweida city following deadly clashes

Heavy rains slammed the Northeast and caused flash floods in the New York City subway system. CBS News' Rob Marciano has the latest.

New York

Flash flooding pummels NYC and slams subway lines

US President Donald Trump told Russia to end its war in Ukraine within 50 days or face massive new economic sanctions, as he laid out plans for infusions of weaponry for Kyiv via NATO. "We're going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don't have a deal in 50 days, tariffs at about 100 percent," Trump said.

Global Tariffs

Trump gives Moscow 50-day ultimatum over Ukraine war

A Gaza-bound boat carrying pro-Palestinian activists and humanitarian aid left Sicily, over a month after Israel detained and deported people aboard a previous vessel.

Sicily

New Gaza-bound aid boat leaves Italy

The U.S. will manufacture more weapons to help Ukraine in its fight against Russia's invasion. President Trump said European nations will be footing the bill.

Ukraine Invasion

U.S. to send more weapons to Ukraine

Christian leaders have accused Israeli settlers of attacking sacred sites in the West Bank. The Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Jerusalem, Theophilos III - visiting the Christian town of Taybeh with other clerics - said settlers had started a fire near a cemetery and a 5th century church there last week.

Clerics accuse West Bank settlers of attacking Christian sites

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is in Beijing ahead of talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He's there to broaden economic cooperation with China, which is Australia's top trade partner, while taking into account security concerns.

Beijing

Australia's Albanese pushes Aussie exports in China visit

In an Oval Office meeting, President Trump announced that the US will sell weapons to European nations, who will then send them to Ukraine. The president also threatened new trade consequences if no peace deal is reached with Ukraine within 50 days.

Trump gives Russia new deadline for Ukraine peace deal

Astronauts from India, Poland, Hungary and the U.S. are returning from the International Space Station following the historic Axiom Mission 4 trip. CBS News' consultant Bill Harwood joins with more details.

Cape Canaveral

Axiom Mission 4 crew returns from historic trip to I.S.S.

Hundreds of Palestinians on Sunday (July 13) mourned two men who were killed in overnight clashes by settlers in the West Bank. One of the deceased is 20-year-old Sayafollah Musallet, a U.S. citizen.

Mourners bury U.S. citizen killed in West Bank settler attack

Search efforts resumed for the more than 160 people still missing from the deadly July 4 floods in Central Texas after being halted Sunday morning due to renewed flood threats. CBS News' Karen Hua has the latest.

Kerrville

Heavy rains halt recovery efforts in central Texas

Following his recent criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump said he plans to send Patriot missiles to Ukraine. Trump, for the first time since he took office in January, is also considering authorizing new funding for Ukraine.

Trump considers new funding for Ukraine

Two women were killed and two people were injured in a church shooting in Lexington, Kentucky, after the suspect initially shot a state trooper, police said. CBS News correspondent Nicole Valdes has the latest.

Lexington

Two women killed in Kentucky church shooting

The European Union said it would extend its suspension of countermeasures to U.S. tariffs until early August and continue to press for a negotiated settlement, after U.S. President Donald Trump ratcheted up his trade war on the bloc.

Brussels

EU holds off on U.S. tariff countermeasures for now to pursue talks

One year ago, Thomas Crooks, a recent community college graduate, opened fire on then-candidate Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. A year later, there's still no answers to why Crooks did it. Scott MacFarlane reports.

Butler

Motive still a mystery a year after Trump assassination attempt

Several European leaders and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum have expressed disappointment at the 30% tariffs US President Donald Trump has announced, but maintained openness to reach a negotiated solution.

Leaders of EU and Mexico slam Trump's 30% tariffs

A preliminary report depicted confusion in the cockpit shortly before an Air India jetliner crashed and killed 260 people last month, after the plane's engine fuel cutoff switches flipped almost simultaneously and starved the engines of fuel.

Ahmedabad

Air India crash report shows pilot confusion over fuel cutoff

Iran’s foreign minister says his country is ready to resume nuclear talks with the United States but will need assurances that there will be no more attacks against it. Abbas Araghchi made the comments on Saturday, during a meeting with foreign diplomats in Tehran.

Tehran

Iran willing to resume nuclear talks with U.S. if given assurances

Australia will not commit troops in advance to any conflict, Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy said on Sunday (July 13), responding to a report that the Pentagon has pressed its ally to clarify what role it would play if the U.S. and China went to war over Taiwan.

Council of the City of Sydney

Australia to 'support status quo' on Taiwan amid U.S. defense push

The Pentagon is urging Japan and Australia to clarify what role they would play if the U.S. and China went to war over Taiwan, the Financial Times is reporting. According to the newspaper, the reported request caught Japan and Australia 'off-guard'.

Taipei

Australia caught 'off guard' by U.S demands over Taiwan

A federal judge in California temporarily halted the Trump administration from making indiscriminate arrests based on race and denying detainees access to lawyers.

Breakdown