In 2025, the shockwaves from the conflict between Israel and Iran have been keenly felt in Lebanon. It's become a front line in hostilities. And that's brought a shift in the balance of power within Lebanon.

Beirut

Lebanon has initiated a government-led effort to disarm Hezbollah, beginning with the dismantling of the group's military infrastructure in southern Lebanon. This follows a year in which Hezbollah was militarily weakened by conflict with Israel, resulting in a loss of political power and diminished Iranian influence in the country.

The Lebanese army plans to expand the disarmament to other regions, though Hezbollah has only cooperated in the south. The decision has prompted warnings from Iran and concerns about potential civil conflict, as Hezbollah retains significant support among the Shia community. Meanwhile, Lebanon has entered U.S.-mediated negotiations with Israel, but Israeli attacks on Hezbollah continue.

Lebanon’s power shift: Hezbollah disarmament amid regional tensions

Lebanon is a divided nation. Communities are linked to external actors and their political rivalries are played out here. Lebanon is also home to Hezbollah backed by Iran. This country has long been a front line in the confrontation between the US, its ally Israel and Iran. This destruction was a result of last year's conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. The group was militarily weakened, consequently it lost political power and Iran lost leverage. 2025 brought a new balance of power, mirroring that in the wider Middle East. In came a leadership that pledged to return Lebanon to the Arab fold and reclaim state sovereignty. During a visit to Beirut in June, the Foreign Minister of Iran seemed to acknowledge the new reality. He said Tehran wants to start a new chapter in relations based on state to state diplomacy. But not long after, Iranian officials warned of the consequences of what was an unprecedented decision by a Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah. In the region of south Lebanon that borders Israel, the army has been dismantling the group's military infrastructure. It says it plans to finish by the end of the year. Here Hezbollah has cooperated, but it won't in the rest of the country because it believes it's not part of the ceasefire deal and it will amount to a surrender to Israel. Although weakened, the group has a large support base among the Muslim Shia community. Any attempt to disarm it by force could risk civil conflict. Israel continues to target Hezbollah. These posters are of fighters killed in Israeli strikes. To defuse tensions, Lebanon has agreed to U.S.-mediated direct political negotiations with a longtime enemy for the first time in decades. They're being held here in the coastal town of Nakoura, close to the border with Israel. But the talks haven't stopped the Israeli attacks in a message that negotiations will be held under fire. The army says the second phase of its disarmament plan will begin in January. The area between the Litani River and the Awali River will be next. Will that be enough to prevent a threatened escalation by Israel, which is demanding the full disarmament of Hezbollah? There are uncertain days ahead. Zainab Khudair, Al Jazeera, Beirut.

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