Name: Latest chance of a White Christmas across lower 48
Uploaded: 2025-12-22T19:35:26.722Z
Duration: 1 min 9 s
Description: There’s nothing more magical than waking up to a layer of white snow on Christmas morning. But who actually has a chance of seeing a white Christmas this year? Here’s the latest chances as well as the historical chances of a white Christmas.

There’s nothing more magical than waking up to a layer of white snow on Christmas morning. But who actually has a chance of seeing a white Christmas this year? Here’s the latest chances as well as the historical chances of a white Christmas.

The likelihood of a white Christmas across the lower 48 states is lower than many expect, with less than 30% of the country typically seeing snow cover on December 25 in recent years. A white Christmas is defined as having at least one inch of snow on the ground, a condition met by only 18.6% of the U.S., mostly in northern or elevated areas.

Historical data indicates Minneapolis has a 70% chance of a white Christmas, Chicago 41%, and New York City just 15%. Looking ahead, the possibility of significant snow cover on Christmas Day remains limited primarily to far northern regions.

Latest chance of a White Christmas across lower 48

at the probability of a white Christmas anyway, actually warm or cold, it's actually not as high as you might think. Just going back over the past 20 years, you can see what percentage of snow cover we had over the U.S. The past couple have been less than 30%. And really over the past 10 years, more years than not have been less than 30% when it comes to snow cover. And an inch of snow on the ground is what makes a white Christmas. It doesn't have to be falling. That's the definition is an inch of snow on the ground. And we have that only in 18.6% and it's pretty far North or it's pretty high up when it comes to that snow cover. So you look at the historical probabilities and a spot like Minneapolis, it's 70% chance of white Christmas, not a guarantee by any stretch here, but 70% chance. Chicago, it's less than 50 though at 41% and a spot like New York City, only a 15% historical probability of a white Christmas. Now you might actually get a little snow in New York City, although I don't think you'll get an inch, but we've got some chances. In fact, you look at the chances of a white Christmas coming in here, it's really only possible well to the North looking ahead all the way into Christmas day.

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