In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno analyzes weather models tracking a developing storm in the Atlantic that could impact the coasts of the Carolinas and Virginia later this week and into the weekend.

Meteorologists are tracking the potential development of a hybrid storm system, referred to as a 'hybrid howler,' off the coast of the Carolinas. This system is not expected to be a purely tropical storm, as it originates from the Canadian prairies and will interact with warm ocean waters and significant wind shear.

Forecast models from European, American, and British meteorological agencies all indicate the likelihood of a storm forming near the Carolina coast. The system could bring heavy rain, strong winds, beach erosion, and coastal flooding to areas along the Carolina and Virginia coasts, particularly the Outer Banks. Water temperatures in the region are above average, increasing the risk of storm development. Meteorologists advise continued monitoring of the situation.

Hybrid 'howler' to form off the Carolina coast

And we're talking about a hybrid howler off the Carolina coast as we go through this weekend. That's coming up on the feed, but of course, we have to keep an eye out on what will likely be a tropical storm later today as we're tracking this tropical wave, remember, came off Africa last Friday. We've been pointing to this for the last several days that this is going to end up being our next storm, and you can see it right now. Listen, there's no center of circulation with this yet, so it's probably not going to be a storm until later today, but we've already have an eyepath with this system. You can see it. There it is as it tracks to the north and then should give a glancing blow to the northern Leeward Islands here as we move into Thursday night and then a curve away from Bermuda. And as we talked about, there was never really a pathway for this storm. The only chance was if it stayed well south of 15, got into the Caribbean, then maybe, but even if it did, you're going to see a big dip in the jet stream later this week. So even if it came into the Caribbean, it was not coming to the United States here. So I want to show you that dip in the jet stream coming as we head toward the end of the week, because that's going to have a huge impact in the tropics. Let me show it to you right now. Here's the upper level pattern this week. Here's a little dip in the jet stream. It's not necessarily this. You're going to get a little piece of energy that splits off from this and then watch additional energy coming in across the Canadian prairies. I'm going to put this into motion and watch how you start slowly but surely. There's Wednesday, Thursday, and then you see what happens Friday, Saturday. All of a sudden you have this, this dip in the jet stream across the southeast. And note, you have a lot of energy in here denoted by the red shading offshore. So what's going to end up happening is this is going to form a storm off the east coast of the United States. Now, because this isn't coming from the tropics, it's not going to be a purely tropical system. In fact, what's going to end up happening, it's coming from the Canadian prairies. So it's more like a winter storm. However, got to keep an eye on these and let me show you why. Because when you look at water temperatures here off the east coast of the United States, what you're going to end up seeing here are water temperatures, what? In the lower 80s. You see that? So this low pressure system is going to be forming in here. It's over very warm water. Now, there's lots of wind shear. It's not purely from the tropics. So this will not be a purely tropical storm. However, if this low sits over the warm water for a period of time, you start getting more and more thunderstorms. You know what this could be? The hybrid howler, as I called it, or a subtropical storm moving forward here. Now, let me show you some of the modeling where this storm is going to go. And I can tell you this, the modeling is all over the place with this. Let me show you three models. You know what they're going to be? The European, the American, and then the British model, the UK Met. They all have this. Friday evening, I want you to watch this area in here off the South Carolina coast. Watch it. They all have an area of storm. This is the European, the American, the British model, all have pretty much the same thing. Let's go to Saturday. Here is the European model, 998 millibar low right here off the North Carolina coast. What does the American model have? Pretty close. What does the British model have? A little weaker, but they all show a storm off the Carolina coast. What does the European do it? Hugs it along the coast for a period of time. You see that? Stalls it and then brings it back into the Carolina coast. This will be the worst case scenario for the Outer Banks because you'll get a period of rain and wind that will last right into Monday. That's the European model. What does the American model do? Well, there it is Saturday evening off the coast. Brings it northward, brings rain to the mid-Atlantic Sunday, into Monday, and then out to sea as we get into Tuesday. The British model, a little different. Here it is Saturday offshore. Most of the rain, most of the wind offshore. So what's right? Not sure yet. But one thing I will say, no matter what you look at, and let's go to the European, a couple of interesting things here. You've got an area of high-pressure building in the northeast. You have low pressure here. What does that mean? You're going to drive the wind. I think we're going to have a lot of problems along the Carolina, Virginia, North Carolina coast late this week and over the upcoming weekend. Either you get a soaking rain and pounding wind, or you just get the wind, but there's going to be beach erosion, rough surf, and you're probably going to get coastal flooding here. And for the vulnerable areas in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, more damage I'm afraid, as that water is just going to be able to sweep over those unprotected areas. So this is going to be a huge problem I'm worried about. Let's keep an eye on that. All right? Now, I've been sounding the alarm for a week. Oh, by the way, just so you know, just to tidy this up a little bit. Whether this gets named or not, we do have a high risk of some kind of development off the Carolina coast. Again, I don't think it's purely tropical, but it could be a subtropical storm, and these systems can produce problems with rain and wind. So that's something to keep an eye on. Now, I've been sounding the alarm for how long about this. Look at these warm waters. These are the temperature anomalies in the Gulf and the Caribbean. You're looking at water temperatures, water temperatures that are three to four degrees above the historical average, so they're well in the 80s. I am worried, really quick here, worried moving forward that with this dip in the jet stream coming on through, and here it is, take a look at it, with this dip in the jet stream coming in, high pressure builds in behind it, that this area is going to be susceptible for development as we head toward the middle part of the month. Let's watch this area for tropical development, a hybrid howler and homegrown development on the feed.

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