AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva discusses the threats in the tropics.

AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, has announced an increased risk for tropical development in the Gulf region. After a quiet start to the hurricane season, several storms have recently formed, and current conditions suggest the possibility of another system organizing soon. The area of concern is a low-pressure system forming east of northern Florida, which is expected to move into the Gulf. While warm ocean temperatures and high moisture content support development, wind shear is likely to limit the system's intensity, making hurricane formation unlikely. The exact path and development potential will depend on how far south the system moves after crossing Florida, with meteorologists monitoring its progress closely.

High risk of tropical development in the Gulf

Joining us right now is Accuweather lead hurricane expert Alex Da Silva. Let's first talk about, Alex, where we've been. I mean, it was quiet for the first, well, June was very quiet. Then all of a sudden, July came around. It was boom, boom, boom, three storms. Yeah, we've been talking about ever since we released our forecast that we thought it could be a fairly busy start to the hurricane season. And for the first little while, it certainly wasn't. But then, like you said, boom, boom, boom, checking these names off the list, a couple of tropical storms, and now all of a sudden we're sitting at three named storms, and we could be looking at our fourth one in the next day or two, potentially. It was the decision was made just a couple of hours ago, Alex, you and the team decided to go with a high risk. Explain that high risk, what that means. Yeah, essentially, what it means is that there's a chance that we could see some development in this area. This does not mean this is going to become a hurricane or anything like that. It just means that we might see an organized tropical system moving across the northern gulf here over the next couple of days. Right now, the low pressure area is actually already starting to form east of the northern portion of Florida right now. Yeah, there's the upper low. And again, this is classic homegrown development, little dip in the jet stream, lifting northward and left behind this upper low. That is going to be drifting around an area of high pressure, Alex, across Alabama and Georgia. That clockwise flows should steer this into Florida tonight, then into the Gulf of America as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday. And, you know, just look at the water temperatures. It's concerning. Yeah, it certainly is. Water temperatures up into the mid 80s. We typically look for around 80 degrees, so plenty of moisture, plenty of warm water. And not only is the water warm at the surface, it's warm as you go down into the ocean. We call that ocean heat content. That's near to above average in this area as well. So this has several things going for it. It's not an ideal environment for tropical development, which is why we don't expect this to ramp up into a hurricane or anything like that. But there are enough factors working towards this developing, and that's why we upgraded to a high risk of development. It's not ideal because of the wind shear. It's not like there's not any. There's going to be some the next couple of days. Yeah, right now there's pretty good wind shear from the northeast coming down across the system. And then once the system gets into the Gulf, I think there's going to be a little bit of wind shear coming out of the east. Now it's going to be moving, I think, with that wind shear, which is not as detrimental as if it was moving against that wind shear. But I still think that that's going to be enough to at least hold it back a little bit from it getting to be a hurricane or anything like that. And again, we're not expecting development here tonight, but at some point Tuesday and Wednesday, and the fact that it's going to be moving from west to east and it's going to be over the open waters for at least 48 hours, Alex. Yeah, it has a limited time window. And I think what's going to matter is how far south it's able to get into the Gulf. If this comes south of Tampa and it would have more time to work with over the Gulf, and then that increases your chance of development. If it stays up towards the Big Bend more, it would have less time over the ocean and then it probably would not develop. So a lot of this has to do with, I think, what happens over the next 24 hours, how it comes across Florida, and then where it exactly emerges. Does it emerge near the Big Bend or does it emerge south of Tampa? I think that's going to be the key, whether we're going to see development or not. Acuwa, the lead hurricane expert. Alex DeSilva, thanks for joining us here.

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