Cedric Chehab from BMI says the Russia-Ukraine situation is going to very much "stop and go", and a sustained solution is still out of reach.

London

An economist highlighted the resurgence of the geopolitical risk premium worldwide, citing ongoing conflicts such as Russia-Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East as key factors complicating the global business environment. The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, with major sticking points around territory and security guarantees, while only limited progress toward peace is expected in the near term.

Meanwhile, investor demand for gold and other precious metals has increased as a hedge against uncertainty, even as oil prices have declined due to increased production and weak demand. The economist noted that unless Middle East tensions escalate significantly, the impact on oil prices is likely to remain limited, with supply and demand dynamics continuing to drive the market.

Geopolitical risk premium is back, pretty much globally: Economist

Which of those three developments matter the most to you? the talks with Zelensky, the talks with Putin or what's happening in Israel and Gaza? All three matter for the world because as we learned over the past few years the geopolitical risk premium is back whether it's in Europe or whether it's in the Middle East or potentially in Asia in the future. These are things that government leaders and corporates now have to navigate much more dynamically and I think that makes the outlook for the global business environment much more difficult. So if you think about the Russia-Ukraine situation, it's very difficult to resolve. We've had many opportunities for potential ceasefire but as you mentioned, you know stick two major sticking points. How much territory to cede? In what form? Under what format? and also, the second one is security guarantees. So it seems like Trump is trying to push that responsibility onto European leaders and that's going to be very difficult and potentially a much weaker form of security guarantees. So I think the Russia-Ukraine situation is going to be still very much stop and go. I think it's going to be, you know, don't count your chickens. I think it's very thorny, very difficult process. So what we see going into next year is the potential for some movement towards the peace agreement and maybe some short-term ceasefires. But a sustained solution is still a little bit out of reach considering that these two major issues have not been resolved. But of course, we hope that there's progress. Okay, is this something that I'm What I'm thinking, okay? Tell me if it's correct because what you're seeing with gold prices and silver prices is the people are saying man put your money in the safe haven, you know, keep it safe. Anything is happening. This is a mad country. This is a mad place. The world is going to hell effectively. But at the same time you have oil prices dropping. Things are going to be fine. I don't understand this. So there are a few things. I think on the precious metals and gold situation, I think what's driving up gold, for example, it's central bank buying. It's retail buying. And it's this hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, potentially still inflation fears that linger. So people moving into gold as a safe haven. But you also have other types of buying which is happening. So for example, you have some stable coins which are being issued backed by gold. So you have a lot of this demand for gold. Now you look at silver, you look at platinum, palladium. Actually, these three precious metals have outperformed gold this year. Partly maybe because of speculation, but partly because of the industrial uses, right? We have a huge forward momentum in terms of industrial policy coming out of the U.S. And that's starting to be mimicked in other countries around the world. So could some companies or governments start to be stockpiling some of these commodities? We don't know. But we know that silver, platinum, palladium are considered precious metals. But they have a lot of industrial uses. And so they're potentially being driven up as well from the industrial policy perspective. Now, when you flip over to oil and you say, well, you know, all these commodity prices are going up, but oil prices are down. Where's the geopolitical risk premia, right? Well, that kind of dissipated at the beginning of the year when Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries decided to increase oil production at a time when there was weaker demand. And then also OPEC was saying that, wait, there's no, in 2026, it's going to be balanced. It's not going to be a supply glut. Well, who knows, right? Depends on how demand comes out. That's their prediction. And they're an authority on the subject in a sense. Absolutely. But the fact that they did add a lot of barrels to the market this year, the fact that inventories did rise across the world, and the fact that the U.S. is trying to pump as much as they can as well, means that perhaps, you know, you still have a little bit of oversupply in the market. And if you look at most consensus forecasts, they're for weaker oil prices next year. So in that sense, it's really the supply demand dynamics which are driving oil markets. Now, if you were to see a re-escalation and tensions in the Middle East, and we don't expect something big like we had this year, of course, with the bombing of nuclear facilities in Iran, we see the potential for an escalation in Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, for example. So but that is much lower scale and smaller scale in terms of what we saw this year. And probably not enough unless it escalates and broadens out to see a much broader rise in risk premia for oil markets. Okay.

China's military moved army, naval, air force and artillery units around Taiwan on December 29 for its "Justice Mission 2025" drills, as the island vowed to defend democracy and mobilized troops to rehearse repelling a potential Chinese attack.

Taipei City

China launches 'Justice Mission 2025' war games around Taiwan

President Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone before meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Florida on Sunday. Trump said he thinks both men are ready for peace.

Florida

Ukraine Invasion

Trump meets with Zelenskyy, insists Putin is ready for peace

Far-right politics have pushed further into the mainstream across much of Europe. Populist parties, even in opposition, are shaping national debates on migration and the economy. The trend reflects growing voter frustration over living costs, borders and political trust.

Berlin

Far-right politics gaining influence across Europe

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is set to discuss a new peace plan draft with U.S. President Trump in Florida on Sunday (December 28). However, fresh Russian attacks on Kyiv have left a third of the city without power, undermining local confidence.

Kyiv

Kyiv residents fear escalation amid Zelenskyy-Trump peace talks

A report has sought to catalogue some of the most significant extreme weather events of the year. UK charity Christian Aid found that heatwaves are pushing the limits of human adaptation, hurricanes and typhoons are breaking records, and droughts are devastating lives across the globe. It's all coming at a heavy financial cost.

Top 10 natural disasters cost over $120 billion in 2025, report says

Russia attacked Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine with hundreds of missiles and drones on Saturday, ahead of what President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said would be a crucial meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump to work out a plan to end nearly four years of war.

Russian drones, missiles pound Kyiv ahead of Zelenskiy-Trump meeting

French actor Brigitte Bardot has died aged 91, her foundation said on Sunday (December 28). She shot to international fame dancing the mambo barefoot in "And God Created Woman," her tousled hair and fierce energy radiating a sexual magnetism rarely before seen in mainstream cinema.

Saint-Tropez

Brigitte Bardot, France's 'legend of the century', has died

A ceasefire is now in place between Cambodia and Thailand after weeks of cross-border fighting. But with nearly a million civilians displaced and trust in short supply, the focus now is on whether the guns will stay silent.

Bangkok

Thailand and Cambodia agree on ceasefire to end weeks of deadly fighting

The storm that hit the Northeast this weekend dropped up to a foot of snow in some areas. New York City saw its highest level of snowfall in nearly four years, and the region's three major airports experienced significant delays and disruptions.

New York

Powerful winter storm brings heavy snow to Northeast

For approximately 10 hours Saturday, Russia attacked the Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv with about 500 drones and 40 missiles. The attack comes one day before before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with President Trump in Mar-a-Lago. Elizabeth Palmer has the latest.

Russia launches massive attack on Ukraine ahead of Trump-Zelenskyy meeting

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met today in Halifax to discuss economic aid amid the Russia-Ukraine war. This comes ahead of Zelenskyy’s plans to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss a peace deal.

Halifax Regional Municipality

Canada announces $2.5B in aid for Ukraine

President Trump said Thursday's strikes on Nigeria targeting ISIS were set for Wednesday but were delayed to Christmas Day for symbolic reasons. Mr. Trump claimed the Nigerian government is failing to protect Christians.

Washington D.C.

Trump says timing of Christmas Day strikes in Nigeria was intentional

The latest attack comes as presidents Zelenskyy and Trump prepare to meet in Florida on Sunday amid ongoing efforts to end the war.

One dead many injured after Russia launches massive attack on Kyiv

According to the Chinese foreign ministry, the sanctions entail freezing the companies’ assets in China and banning individuals and organisations from accessing them.

Beijing

China sanctions 20 American companies over arms sales to Taiwan

Somalia reacted angrily Friday (December 26) after Israel formally recognised the northern region of Somaliland as an "independent and sovereign state" -- the first country to do so. U.S. President Donald Trump said he opposed U.S. recognition of Somaliland in an interview with the New York Post.

Somaliland

Somalia denounces Israeli recognition of Somaliland

Thailand and Cambodia agreed to an "immediate" ceasefire on Saturday (December 26), the two countries said in a joint statement, pledging to end border clashes that killed dozens of people.

Buri Ram

Thailand and Cambodia agree to ceasefire

Somaliland, a territory of more than 3 million people in the Horn of Africa, seceded from Somalia more than three decades ago, but it hadn't internationally been recognized as an independent state by any country.

Israel becomes first country to recognize Somaliland

Some of the stabbed victims remain in serious condition. A 38-year-old man was arrested for alleged attempted murder at the factory, authorities said.

Mishima

At least 15 injured in chemical attack, stabbing at Japan factory

Israeli President Isaac Herzog said he was shocked by the "horrific killing spree" and pledged Israel would reinforce its security.

Jerusalem

Palestinian man kills two in car, knife attack in northern Israel

Munitions factories are expected to expand capacity and build new plants as the regime in Pyongyang intensifies weapons development and furthers its ties with Russia.

Pyongyang

Kim Jong-un orders North Korea to boost missile production in 2026

The United States launched airstrikes on Islamic State targets in Nigeria's Sokoto State on Thursday. Nigerian authorities denied Trump's claim of mass killings of Christians amid mixed reactions to the U.S. intervention.

Abuja

Nigeria confirms cooperation with U.S. strikes on IS targets

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday (December 26) he planned to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump soon and that a lot could be decided before the New Year as Washington pushes diplomatic efforts to end the war with Russia.

Washington

Zelenskiy: 'A lot' can be decided before New Year ahead of Trump talk

The United States carried out airstrikes against ISIS militants in northwest Nigeria at the request of Nigeria's government, U.S. President Donald Trump and the U.S. military said on Thursday, claiming the group had been targeting Christians in the region.

U.S. launches 'deadly' airstrikes in Nigeria targeting ISIS: Trump

Official results show Asfura edged out his main rival Salvador Nasralla by less than one percentage point. Marred by delays and fraud claims, the Honduran election continues Latin America's shift to the right.

Tegucigalpa

Honduras: Trump ally Nasry Asfura wins disputed presidency

Several people were killed in Southern California when severe storms with heavy rain caused mudslides and flooding, which was made worse in areas affected by wildfires in January.

Heavy rain, flooding turns deadly in California

The U.S. Department of Justice says it has found more than a million more documents potentially tied to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, delaying a full release for weeks while officials redact details to protect victims.

DOJ reviews over 1 million newly found Epstein documents

Pope Leo XIV celebrated his first Christmas Mass Wednesday evening where he described the celebration as a feast of "faith, charity and hope". He reminded the faithful that refusing to help the poor and vulnerable is comparable to rejecting God altogether.

Rome

Pope Leo reminds believers to help the poor in first Christmas mass

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled progress in a Ukraine-Russia peace plan, after he told journalists about a new draft that would include a free economic zone and demilitarization. Holly Williams has the latest.

Zelenskyy signals progress with Ukraine-Russia peace plan

Democrats and some Republicans are blasting the Justice Department over its handling of the release of files related to Jeffrey Epstein, which included major redactions.

U.S. lawmakers blast DOJ over Epstein files release

Bolsonaro is expected to undergo the procedure on 25 December.

Breakdown