AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva discusses tropical activity and potential development through September.

Meteorologists have noted an unusual absence of named storms on Labor Day for two consecutive years, a rare occurrence last seen in the early 1990s. Attention is now focused on a tropical wave that recently moved off the African coast, which is expected to develop into the next named storm, potentially Gabrielle, as it moves westward into more favorable conditions.

Experts highlight that the second half of September could see increased hurricane activity, with a series of tropical waves likely to follow. In the Pacific, Tropical Depression 12E is forecast to intensify, with its path and impact on the southwestern United States dependent on the strength of regional high pressure systems. Meteorologists emphasize the need for ongoing monitoring as conditions evolve.

Eyes on mid-September for potential hurricane development

You want to let you know that yesterday, Labor Day, we did not have a named storm. We didn't have one last Labor Day either. Now, Labor Day fluctuates certainly every year, but it's always in early September, right, within the first week. That's the heart of the hurricane season. So a bit of an anomaly here, back-to-back years, last year and this year, of not having a named storm on Labor Day. Just to show you, it's a little rare. The last time that happened was the hurricane seasons of 1991 and 1992. By the way, just as a did-you-know, that September 4th, 1990, which is on Thursday, day after Labor Day 1990, is when yours truly started his career as a meteorologist. Myself and the crystal ball meteorologist, Joe Lumberg. Love to see it. Now, someone that's joined AccuWeather a little earlier than me or a little later than me, probably wasn't born. Let's bring him on in. Our hurricane expert, Alex De Silva. In fact, Alex, the first time I think you and I met was in 2020 at the AMS conference in Boston. You and I met, and you followed me on Twitter, and we communicated then. And now, here you are with me asking you questions. How about that? Yeah, it's funny how things work out. Yeah, it is. All right. Tropics have been quiet, but things are starting to heat up a little bit. Yeah, over the last few weeks, we've been talking about how we expect things to really start to ramp up, especially towards the end of that first week of September and then throughout the rest of the month. And it looks like we're starting to get into that phase right now. A couple tropical waves out there, and the one to watch is going to be the one all the way to the east. It just came off of Africa about a day or two ago. This is the one, I think, that's going to develop into our next named storm here. Looking at the water vapor, there is some dry air in its way, but you can see there is quite a bit of green on the map there in that circled bubble there. So it does have a moisture pocket as it's moving to the west here. Now, here's the thing. It looks to me, let's take 20 degrees north, right? And that's the line that goes just north of Hispaniola and in the southern Cuba. You follow that to the east. Seems like if you're north of that line, you have some stronger wind shear. But if you stay south of that line and we're talking about that tropical wave, the wind shear looks much lighter. So there's a window here. Yeah, and this is to be expected as you go more into the heart of the hurricane season. Overall, you do expect that wind shear to decrease, and this is going to be moving into an area of much more favorable winds for development. And so that's why we're going with a high risk of development. We've been saying we've been very concerned that this is going to develop here over the next couple of days here. We have the fourth through the sixth, but I would lean early on this time frame, probably closer to the fourth when it could get developed. Looks pretty good right now. The big question is going to be how far south is it able to stay? If it's able to strengthen up a little bit more, a little bit quicker, it's more likely going to be pulling more to the north. We see stronger storms typically hang on the more the northern sides. If it stays on a little bit of the weaker course, then I think it could be a little bit more of a problem for the northeastern Caribbean, as it would have more of a westward trajectory. Either way, though, regardless of if it impacts the islands, as of right now, it looks like it would turn away from the United States, but we need to watch it very, very carefully. And Alex, you're even more concerned as we move beyond this time frame that some of the atmospheric conditions that you look at argue that things can get very busy second half of September. Yeah, indeed, that's what it looks like. We have this little midsummer lull that we're dealing with right now, but this storm is going to come through, and I think it's really going to essentially prime the pump here for more tropical waves behind it. A lot of times you get these front runners, they kind of clear out that dry air in front of it, and then that allows more of those tropical waves to come across and to develop. So I would expect, you know, kind of this tropical wave train, as we call it, coming from Africa to get pretty active here as we move into the middle of the month. Really quickly, we have next name, by the way, is Gabrielle, so we think there is a suitor for Gabrielle with this area. All right, Pacific, this is Tropical Depression 12E. You feel pretty strong this will be a storm later today. Yeah, it should be by 11 o'clock eastern time, we'll have to see, but yeah, this is going to be moving to the north and to the west here, should intensify into a hurricane at some point. But the big question is, there's kind of a split. Right now we think it's going to hook back towards the Baja, because it's going to feel a weakness in the high pressure over the central part of the, or over the western part of the country. But there is a scenario where it just gets blocked out, where the storm essentially just gets blocked, that high pressure is too strong, and it just meanders off the coast. That would be the better case scenario for the United States, because if it's able to turn in like what we're currently expecting, some of that moisture will get pulled into the southwestern United States, and we could see some showers and thunderstorms and some localized flooding. So the better case scenario would be if it stalls off the coast and over that cooler water and just falls apart. But we have to watch that very, very carefully, as it definitely is possible that we could see a plume of moisture coming into portions of the southwest and in western Texas as well. AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DeSilva, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.

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