AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter provides insight into Tropical Storm Erin's movement and the direction of its wind shear.

East Coast of the United States

Hurricane Erin is showing signs of intensification as it moves through the Atlantic, with meteorologists noting improved storm organization and a reduction in wind shear. The storm is expected to strengthen further, potentially reaching Category 3 status as it travels over warm waters north of the Caribbean islands.

While most forecast models suggest Erin will eventually turn away from the US East Coast, AccuWeather experts caution that there remains a 30 percent risk of direct rain and wind impacts, particularly for the North Carolina coastline. The situation is being closely monitored, with small adjustments made to the projected track, and meteorologists emphasize the importance of watching for changes in the storm's direction over the coming days.

Erin on track to become Category 3 hurricane

Joining me right now is AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter. We're going to break things down. And you know, John, right when you look at the satellite picture, you can see this is getting better organized. We're talking with Alex Da Silva earlier. This is going to be taken to 60 miles per hour. But you're starting to get that S-band shape, right? And that's an indication that things are getting better organized around Aaron. Correct. You can also see that the thunderstorms and these yellows and reds are starting to become more consolidated around the entire periphery of the storm. So that's, again, another indication that this is on the way to some significant intensification. And it's slowing down. Yesterday, at this point, it was in the 20s, now it's 17. What does that tell us? The wind shear is beginning to lessen. What I find scary, John, is that when you take Aaron is now, look where it's going in that area north of the islands. And notice what we have on our key here. That's where the weakest wind shear is. And remember, what is wind shear? That's changing wind speed and direction as you go from the ground up through the atmosphere. And so when there's more wind shear, that can disrupt a storm circulation. Less wind shear, which is exactly where it's headed. That's an area, especially with warm water, where it's favored for intensification. Now, John, you know, I love history and I know you agree with me on this graphic. It provides value. And here's where it provides value. Yesterday, when we looked at where Aaron was and where storms have tracked in that area during the month of August and September, there wasn't a single track, not one track coming into Florida. But Aaron's not gained any north latitude here. So history says Florida is still not ruled out. That's right. Aaron is down in at this particular location. This is the U.S. East Coast, Florida in through here, North Carolina in through here, right along the coast. And so you can see that there are some tracks near Aaron's current location that do go back toward Florida, which is why we've not issued an all clear anywhere yet for direct rain and wind impacts from Aaron, because while most of these tracks do what we call recurve, which is they move back, the storms end up moving out to sea east of the Carolinas. There still are some tracks that get back to the East Coast, and that's why we continue to be monitoring this very vigilantly. John, I did the math. Current now, it's about 10 percent go toward have impacts along the East Coast. But here's the thing. When you look at the historical tracks, a lot of the storms start taking a north northwest track very soon. The longer Aaron doesn't do that, the more concerned we get. Now, we've been talking about this as well. Really, the fork in the road, the big fork in the road is Sunday in the Monday. That's the time period when the upper level flow across this part of the Atlantic Ocean and northward should enable Aaron to take a more northern course. And once that occurs, that's when the risk for Florida, we would feel a lot more comfortable about reducing the risk greatly for Florida up towards South Carolina. We've still got to watch that North Carolina northbound, especially North Carolina. But that torn to the north and the timing of it is going to be very critical. The second fork in the road is Wednesday, John. Now, it appears it appears that there's enough of a dip in the jet stream in the northeast by Wednesday to start turning this away from the United States. You, however, do have a little bit of a concern during this time frame. We do because the way in which this dip in the jet stream sets up, the timing of it and just how deep it is, is going to be really critical. Because if it sets up in this manner, then it can actually act as a kicker and cause the storm to be directed east. So there would be limited risk of rain or wind impacts along the East Coast. However, if this storm is if this little jet stream disturbance is a little bit shaped a little bit differently or its timing is a little bit different, then that can actually draw the storm closer. And that's why we still have this concern about the eventual impact risk here along the East Coast. And in fact, in the last 24 hours, some of these different computer models, these are just a sampling of some of the many computer models. We look at 190 different forecast models here at AccuWeather. Some of them have tracks further to the west, closer to the North Carolina coast, which is exactly what AccuWeather hurricane experts have been concerned about. OK, John, what's the change in the wind of the eye path here? I understand map discussion has just ended. What are we going to be changing with this? We're just going to be making some small adjustments. Our team is doing this now to bring the storm track a little bit ever so closer to the south and west here. So a bit of a closer approach to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands can increase rain and wind impacts there. And we're also going to bring the edge of our window here right to the North Carolina coast. And remember, our meteorologists are specifically drawing the left and right sides of our window of movement here because these are an indication of how far west or east we think the storm could be located. So that means that, again, that's why we've been talking about the concerns along especially the North Carolina coastline. We're going to be bringing that window of movement just a little bit further to the west there. John, we're going to hold this number for now, 70 percent chance, given history. But remember, history says a 90 percent chance of no impacts. That's why we're going 70 now. We may have to take that down of no direct impacts. We may, if there continues to be concerns about the storm being closer to the coast. But again, that 70 percent chance that there's not rain or wind impacts along the east coast are certainly going to be big surf and rip currents, as we talked about. But here's the place that we've got to watch, especially the North Carolina coastline, where it sticks out there. That's where we have a medium risk. And that medium risk is a 30 percent risk of direct rain and wind impacts, the way AccuWeather Hurricane experts exclusively assess that right now. Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter, thanks for breaking it down, John.

President Trump had a virtual call Wednesday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ahead of his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday in Alaska. After the call, Zelenskyy said he told Mr. Trump that "Putin is bluffing."

Washington

Ukraine Invasion

Ukraine's Zelenskyy warns President Trump ahead of meeting with Putin

U.S. President Donald Trump said he would ask the Republican-controlled Congress to extend federal control of Washington's city police force beyond 30 days, escalating his campaign to exert presidential power over the nation's capital.

Trump wants to extend federal control over Washington police

With just hours left to reach a deal on plastics, negotiators in Geneva were scrambling to resolve a deadlock caused by “red lines” of member countries. Nations are crafting the first global, legally binding treaty on plastics pollution at the United Nations office in Switzerland.

Geneva

Global plastics treaty talks in Geneva stall as deadline looms

At least 123 people have been killed in 24 hours, according to Gaza's Health Ministry. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says people will be given the opportunity to leave Gaza before a planned ground offensive, but no one is being pushed out.

Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Israeli strikes pound Gaza ahead of planned ground offensive

America's NATO allies stood firmly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ahead of the face-to-face meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. The European leaders showed a united front that there should be no peace deal without Ukraine's involvement.

Kyiv

NATO allies stand with Ukraine ahead of Trump-Putin summit

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement must improve conditions for detainees at New York's 26 Federal Plaza, a judge ruled Tuesday.

New York

Judge rules ICE must improve conditions for detainees at NY facility

National Guard troops arrived in Washington, D.C., following President Donald Trump's deployment and federalization of local police to crack down on crime in the nation's capital.

National Guard troops arrive in Washington, D.C.

U.S. President Donald Trump said that he had a "very good call" with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, days before his scheduled Alaska meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump had 'very good call' with Zelenskyy ahead of Putin meeting

Israel's military chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, has approved the framework of a plan for a new offensive in Gaza. CBS News Middle East reporter Courtney Kealy has more details.

Israeli military chief approves 'framework' for new Gaza offensive

President Donald Trump said Wednesday there will be “very severe consequences” if Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t agree to stop the Ukraine war after Friday’s summit.

Trump warns of 'severe consequences' if Russia doesn't stop war

A Wisconsin woman on Tuesday was found guilty in the United Kingdom of trying to kill a man at point-blank range in 2019. Aimee Betro, 45, was part of a plot with two other co-conspirators to murder Sikander Ali, prosecutors said.

Birmingham

American woman found guilty of UK murder-for-hire plot

Record-high temperatures across Europe are fanning wildfires across the continent. Experts say a warming climate and an increase in flammable vegetation from rural depopulation are major factors.

Madrid

Historic heat fuels fires across Europe

Hungary's PM Viktor Orbán said the EU attempts to set conditions for a meeting to which leaders of the EU were not invited. He also called for an EU-Russia summit.

Brussels

EU leaders rally behind Ukraine ahead of Trump-Putin talks

President Trump said Monday he expects that Russia and Ukraine will "land swap" certain territories as part of an eventual ceasefire deal. Mr. Trump is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.

Trump claims 'land swapping' between Russia, Ukraine will happen

Taylor Swift confirmed her 12th studio album, "The Life of a Showgirl," in a teaser for her upcoming appearance on her boyfriend Travis Kelce's podcast. Swift did not disclose the release date of the album.

Taylor Swift announces new album, 'The Life of a Showgirl'

U.S. President Donald Trump said that his planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday will be to "feel out" the leader as pressure mounts for Russia and Ukraine to make a peace deal.

Trump to meet with Putin in Alaska on Friday

A meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to take place in Alaska, with European leaders notably excluded from the talks. Until Europe can defend itself, it's not likely to be invited to a great power dialogue, experts have told Euronews.

Alaska

Europe frozen out as U.S. and Russia prepare for Alaska talks

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that Kyiv and Moscow will both have to cede land to end the war in Ukraine and talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week will instantly show whether the Kremlin leader is willing to make a deal.

Trump says both sides in Ukraine war will need to cede territory

A prominent Al Jazeera journalist, who had previously been threatened by Israel, was killed along with four colleagues and another journalist in an Israeli airstrike in an attack condemned by journalists and rights groups.

Israeli strike kills Al Jazeera journalists in Gaza

At last one person is dead, dozens are injured and two people are unaccounted for after an explosion at the U.S. Steel Clairton plant in Pennsylvania on Monday.

Clairton

At least 1 dead, dozens injured in U.S. Steel plant explosion

President Donald Trump has placed the Metropolitan Police Department under federal control and announced he's activating the National Guard to combat crime in Washington, D.C.

Trump deploying National Guard to Washington, D.C.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is thanking European leaders for backing his push to join this week's Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, insisting an end to the war must be fair.

Trump and Putin set to meet on Friday without Zelenskyy

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. Kyiv and its allies fear being sidelined and worry any deal could reward Moscow’s occupation of Ukrainian territory.

Ukraine fights for a seat at the table ahead of Trump-Putin summit

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is defending his decision to keep fighting in Gaza, despite protests at home and abroad. Debora Patta has the latest.

Tel Aviv-Yafo

Netanyahu defends plan to expand war in Gaza

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is thanking European leaders for backing his push to join this week's Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, insisting an end to the war must be fair. Willie James Inman has more from the White House.

Anchorage

Countdown begins to Trump-Putin meeting, without Zelenskyy

Violent weather hit several Midwest states over the weekend, with high winds being blamed for the death of at least one person in Nebraska and flash flooding prompting a state of emergency in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin.

Milwaukee

Milwaukee inundated with floodwaters, one dead in Nebraska

Thirty-seven major wildfires are currently burning across nine states in the western United States. Firefighters have made significant progress on the Canyon Fire in California, achieving 62% containment and allowing over 4,000 residents to return home, with minimal property loss reported.

Breakdown