In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno takes a look at a storm coming this weekend to the eastern U.S.

East Coast of the United States

A weather forecast from AccuWeather addresses reports of unprecedented snow expected across the southeastern United States, including the Florida Panhandle and Carolinas. The forecaster states that while some snow is possible in the eastern Carolinas, widespread or significant accumulation is unlikely for most of the East Coast due to storm boundaries remaining offshore.

Forecast models show that only a narrow area, primarily from Myrtle Beach northward in eastern North Carolina, may see a coating to an inch of snow. The forecaster also notes that southeastern New England, including Boston and the Cape, could see some accumulation, but does not anticipate a major snowstorm for the southeast or northeast.

East Coast mayhem this weekend

Unprecedented snow across the southeast, snowing in the Florida Panhandle Sunday, all the way up into the Carolinas. I'm sure you've heard that. I don't believe that's going to happen. Although I do think we're going to get snow in the eastern Carolinas, I'm not anticipating a blockbuster snow across the southeast, and in fact for much of the east coast I'm not that to happen. I'm going to show you why here. And we begin actually with the satellite picture. I want to show you because I tweeted this out, or I sent a message out on X to my followers yesterday that this pattern has been fool's gold for snow, right? There's been opportunity after opportunity, but it just hasn't materialized. Well here's why. Snow boundary has been too far offshore. Fronts are locations where storms can form, right? Well this storm, this front is way offshore. Now you get the storms to form as energy cascades south, but all the storms so far this week have stayed offshore. It's been close in some cases, but everything's been offshore. We did have some snow and we're getting some snow across interior sections in the northeast. You can see that now. We have another piece of energy coming in, and this is what has a lot of people excited across the southeast. I'm going to show you why I don't think you're looking at accumulating snow in much of the southeast or even along the mid-Atlantic and northeast this weekend. Now I will say this, when you look at the cloud cover, you do have clouds and moisture just off the Carolina coast, and I think that's an area to watch as we head into Sunday. Let me show you the pattern that has a lot of people excited for snow in the southeast, and I'm going to show you why I don't think it's going to happen here. All right, let's take a look at the pattern. This is the pattern that we've seen. Let's go to Saturday. You have a dip in the jet stream and you're following these pieces of energy coming on down. We have the next to last piece, this one right here, that's coming south and east. Now when you look at the surface map, and I'll show you the surface map here on Sunday morning, what do you see? You have a boundary offshore, but this energy is going to come around and the thought is it's going to produce enough precipitation in the cold air for some snow. Now I want to show you the European model this Sunday morning. Now my rule of thumb is, in order to get the precipitation to come on back into the colder air, when you have a boundary so far offshore, the tilt of the piece of energy has to be what I call negatively tilted. What I mean by negatively tilted, tilted this way, from northeast, from northwest to southeast. Because when you do that, you bring the flow back in out of the east and you throw all the precipitation that is offshore back into the colder air. Now you'll notice the European right now, this is Sunday morning, has more of what I call a positive tilt, northeast to southwest. That tells me all the precip stays offshore. The American model has the same thing. Look at the energy. It's pretty much the same. Let's go to Sunday evening, right? Sunday afternoon, right here, here. They look very similar. Notice the tilt of the trough is still somewhat what I call positive. It's tilted this way, but it's close, maybe neutral, north-south, but still positive. Here's the key move. Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening, right here, right here, right in here, right there. Starts to come through. It's more neutral, maybe a little, little negatively tilted, a little. And that tells me, and even the American model is showing this, see, it's neutral to negative. That tells me, based on that, that's eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, where you can get some of the precipitation and be thrown back into the snow, back into the cold air for some snow. When you look at the surface map on this, you'll see the difference. This is the, notice, this is the GFS European, GFS European. American model, European model. Despite the fact that they both kind of show the same thing with the upper levels, that at this time, the trough is not negative, it's more positive, and there's not enough precip coming back into the colder air. The American model has everybody excited in the southeast for snow. Look at all the blue. Look at that. Look at the American model. Sunday morning, Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening. Look at all that snow going all the way up into the mid-Atlantic. The European model says no. Afternoon all across the eastern part of North Carolina. What do I believe? I don't believe that the American model is right. I could see some snowflakes in southern Alabama and Florida, but I am not a believer that there's going to be accumulating snow. Let me show you, this is the, look at the American model here. Look at the snow it's printing out here. Few inches of snow all the way up into southern Virginia. They have almost an inch of snow down in the southern parts of Alabama close to Atlanta. I don't believe it. This is what I believe. The European, eastern parts, and I don't even believe this, you know, that you're going to get that much down in the Florida panhandle. The area I think you've got to look for accumulating snow on the ground, maybe a coating to an inch, is in here. I don't even think it gets as far, maybe as far south as Myrtle Beach, not Charleston. Got to keep an eye on it. I don't think it's going to happen, except in eastern North Carolina. Now, what about the mid-Atlantic and northeast? I think we have the same problem here. As you go forward here, look at Sunday evening, see, the energy is weakening. You see how it's weakening? American model is a little stronger, but they're very similar. And now what you're starting to see with the modeling is that the surface maps are keeping it offshore. There's the American, there's, let me show it, there's the American offshore, European offshore. A big northeast snowstorm Sunday, a southeastern northeast snowstorm Sunday, Sunday night into Monday, no. Two areas accumulating snow, eastern Carolinas, maybe from Myrtle Beach on north. And let's watch eastern New England, especially southeastern New England from Boston toward the Capes and the islands. And that's my view on the feed.

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